Published: January 26, 2012 Category: Electronics and Devices
The “smart lighting” concept means different things to different people, but distilling its essence, what seems to be intended is lighting with an additional layer of intelligence that provides enhanced functionality; creating opportunities over and above the simple provision of light where it is needed:
• Smart lighting systems today, generally consist of sensors located at light fixtures, which are networked back to a central controller. They distinguish themselves in the marketplace by the nature of the sensor, how the networking is provided and the degree to which they provide management information.
• For the immediate future, smart lighting opportunities are strongly focused on improving energy efficiency, but NanoMarkets believes that the addressable markets for smart lighting will expand to include environments where the benefits being sold will include improved aesthetics, comfort and even improved health.
Some Embarrassing Questions for Smart Lighting Vendors
All of the above hints that a lot of money is going to be made in the smart lighting space and NanoMarkets believes that this will ultimately be the case. Nonetheless, NanoMarkets notes that manufacturers of smart lighting systems must—as part of their business case—answer some questions about what is new and different about their systems:
• Although presented as something new under the sun, smart lighting is clearly related to the residential and commercial building automation systems that have been touted by various firms since the oil crisis of the 1970s. These systems cannot be said to have been abject failures; they are certainly used in commercial and industrial buildings to some extent. But building automation is not the huge industry it was supposed to be. And for one reason or another, building automation systems have not often been used to control lighting systems. They are more likely to control HVAC. This raises the issue of whether there is now enough incentive for automated lighting systems to be widely used and what that incentive is. What does today’s smart lighting systems have that the old building automation systems lacked.
• One can also see something of the smart lighting system concept in the simple sensor that switches on and off lights in rooms. These are especially common in rest rooms in relatively low occupancy buildings where these rest rooms are not used all the frequently. These systems are clearly useful, but can hardly be considered an opportunity. There do not seem to be large addressable markets for this kind of simple sensor plus light system that remain untapped. But given that, does the market need a more complex system, such as implied by the smart lighting concept?
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Published: January 26, 2012 Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy
NanoMarkets anticipates significant challenges to the status quo in the photovoltaics (PV) market in the coming decade. The PV sector as a whole is entering a period of flat or moderate growth in the next couple of years, and the industry remains highly cost sensitive. Meanwhile, the ongoing shift in market share toward thin-film PV (TFPV) is changing the accepted landscape of available PV technologies. This movement, in turn, is causing a shift in demand for transparent conductors (TCs) in PV applications from market-dominant crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV that uses little or no TCs to TFPV that, in most cases, requires the use of high performance TC electrodes.
Changes in the TFPV Market that Affect TCs
The PV market has, for the past several years, been a boon to the materials industry. Partly thanks to government subsidies, the solar industry has grown dramatically, including a significant growth spurt in 2010. NanoMarkets believes, however, that the boom days are over for the PV sector, and the outlook for the next decade is much different from that of the last. First, the success of the PV industry is closely tied to the construction industry, which is still struggling in several important markets, such as Australia, Canada, France, Sweden, Spain, and the U.K. Second, we think that, in most countries, many of the subsidies and tax incentives that have supported the PV industry for a number of years are going to be reduced significantly. Recall that when the Spanish government took this step a few years ago, the PV market in Spain declined by 75 percent.
This slow growth affects the c-Si market the most, but the TFPV market is not immune. And the penetration of TFPV will happen gradually, rather than sharply, and we are not certain it will happen rapidly enough to overcome sluggish overall growth prospects. The end result of this analysis is that the TC industry can no longer rely on the TFPV industry to provide new business based on rapid growth. Complicating the picture, too, is the fact that growth will occur only as long as the TFPV industry is able to keep up with the continuing cost reductions in the c-Si sector, and as long as the flood of low-cost Chinese silicon modules cause minimal disruption to the TFPV business models.
The expected trajectories of the different PV sub-sectors and their impact on the TC business are quite different:
• The success of cadmium-telluride (CdTe) PV, driven by a single firm, First Solar, has created a de facto entrenchment of a single TC type, namely fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO) in this PV technology. Until now, this situation has meant that there were few opportunities for other materials (or other suppliers) to gain entry. However, with the recent entry of GE into the fray, things may be changing in CdTe PV. And since First Solar’s success has proven that CdTe PV can effectively compete with c-Si PV, we expect that other panel makers may also explore implementation of CdTe PV. This new scenario could present opportunities for TC suppliers to gain entry by offering products that provide an additional efficiency, cost or other market-differentiating advantage beyond that which FTO can offer.
• The situation has not been so great at firms producing copper-indium-gallium-(di)selenide (CIGS) PV. The shuttering of Solyndra in 2011 and the exiting of Veeco in 2010 caused some concern that CIGS was headed for failure, but we think instead that the struggling industry needed the consolidation. Those that remain may be in a better position now to learn from the mistakes of the failed firms, and innovative firms will look for new ways to reduce costs and improve performance, both of which are very much tied to the choice of TC.
• Thin-film silicon (TF Si) is still around, and still accounts for the biggest chunk of the TFPV market. We expect this sector to remain large throughout the period covered by this report, but we also anticipate that its market share will continue to shrink as other more cost-effective PV technologies take hold. In this market, we think that cost cutting, rather than innovation, will rule the day, which means that low-cost alternatives that require minimal changes to implement—i.e. principally transparent conductive oxides (TCOs)—will see opportunities to expand or gain entry.
• Meanwhile, organic PV (OPV) and dye-sensitized cell (DSC) PV have struggled to take off as quickly as expected, and the outlook for these sectors, although promising, remains somewhat uncertain. OPV and DSC have thus far mostly used ITO TCs based on legacy rather than strategy, while these technologies have developed. However, OPV and DSC are now entering a do-or-die commercialization period during which the realities of scale-up are front and center, and where the need to keep costs down and performance high will favor evaluation of many different TCs, including those like nanosilver and conductive polymers that promise low-cost, sputter-free processing.
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Published: January 17, 2012 Category: OLED Lighting
Published: January 09, 2012 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
In NanoMarkets' upcoming report on conductive coatings, we identify two key growth areas:
• Fast growing and highly dynamic application areas such as solar panels, emerging electronics, etc., where the needs for conductive coatings are still in a state of flux. NanoMarkets firmly believes that some conductive coatings firms are going to make considerable amounts of money in these sectors, where they will benefit from growth in the underlying addressable markets; but the flip side of this scenario is that these markets are constantly shifting ground, and demand for new materials can disappear here as fast as it appears. Put in economic terms: they are quite risky!
• Legacy applications, where there are still plenty of examples of existing coating technologies that are less than perfect. Electroless copper for electromagnetic interference (EMI) shielding coatings and indium tin oxide (ITO) transparent electrodes for displays could be cited here. There are fewer risks for entering coating manufacturers, but also less opportunity to build a very large new business. Still, we think that it is encouraging that conductive coatings firms that look hard into existing markets are likely to find some new ways to make money.
While in a broad sense the applications for conductive coatings haven’t changed much in years, there are some important trends that are shifting demand patterns. In the solar energy sector, NanoMarkets expects to see a growing emphasis on energy conversion efficiency as solar subsidies begin to go away. This shift translates into a need for more effective electrodes and hence for improved electrodes. With energy storage also becoming more important, there are new kinds of batteries and supercapacitors on the market that also need higher performance electrodes. These demands for better electrodes obviously translate into new opportunities for conductive coatings of various kinds going forward.
Meanwhile, the display industry is itself looking for ways to adjust to the fact that the boom days for LCDs are over. On the one hand, this effort includes trying to squeeze the biggest possible margins out of the (still gigantic) demand for LCDs that remain. On the other hand, it means looking for entirely new business opportunities outside the mainstream LCD industry. To date, these opportunities have included e-paper, OLED displays, transparent displays and flexible displays. All of these new types of displays have appeared on the market (with varying degrees of success) or are about to do so.
The details of these changes in the display industry are not all that important here, but suffice it to say that all of these new kinds of displays represent a challenge to the dominant transparent conductive coating: indium tin oxide (ITO). No one – and certainly not NanoMarkets -- believes that ITO is going to be anything other than the dominant transparent conductor for a long time to come. However, it is also impossible to doubt that the trends described above in the display industry will not enhance the opportunities for new conductive coatings of various kinds.
While these developments in the display and solar panel industries are new – or at least new-ish – and, we think, deserving of immediate attention for market strategists in the conductive coatings industry, it is also important to recognize that trends in the electronics and communications industries continue to promote growth in the conductive coatings market. Thus, there is nothing really new in the following items, but they continue to counteract the core maturity in the conductive coatings space:
• The expansion of electronics, especially of electronics that support pervasive wireless computing, is fueling growth in the market for EMI and radio frequency interference (RFI) coatings. Legacy products will continue to do well, but new solutions for shielding are also expected to grow. This application was once considered slow growth, but has transformed into one that has greater potential than ever before.
• Electrostatic dissipation (ESD) and antistatic markets are benefitting from the trend toward pervasive electronics, and are further fueled by the onward march of Moore’s Law, which makes errant charges ever more harmful in electronics manufacturing and assembly. Antistatic coatings for packaging and industrial clothing are likely to see a boom as feature sizes decrease.
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Published: January 04, 2012 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
Lithium-ion batteries are a technology poised to see a large growth in revenue in the next five years because of their potential in applications such as electric vehicles (EVs), consumer electronic devices and Smart Grid applications. That there is a clamoring in the market for a drastic improvement in lithium-ion battery technology is obvious to see:
• EVs are trying to compete with the internal combustion engine, an established technology that is likely not going to be beaten in the mass market anytime soon.
• Smart and application laden consumer devices are rife and are only becoming more application heavy, which is a huge draw on battery life.
• Additionally, power companies are pushing to respond to residential and industrial energy needs with smart energy grids to reduce the number of brown outs and blackouts and the ability to integrate renewable energy sources into the grid.
Of all the battery chemistries contending for a place in these markets, the lithium ion is arguably the best poised to enter and capture sizeable portions of these segments or at least has a fighting chance to do so, but a performance increase is necessary to assure this battery chemistry gains a strong foothold.
The Importance of Electrodes for Lithium Battery Performance Improvement
A fact worth noting here is how mature the lithium-ion market is. It is not a market where disruptive, performance enhancing technology is common. But with a sudden projected increase in unit volume and performance demand, there is now potentially a very large market that is not having its needs ideally met.
The realizable market opportunity exists because of the plateau that the current industry standard electrodes have reached. Technological innovation currently provides a minimal increase in performance year to year in current lithium-ion batteries:
• It is more processing improvements and improvements in cell design that have been providing incremental improvements in battery performance in the recent past.
• However the performance demands of the market are growing at a pace too quick for the tweaks that can be made to the current battery to match. This mismatch between the expectations and needs of the market and the inability of the current industrial state of the art has provided a technological gap that needs to be filled. Since performance of the lithium-ion battery is so heavily performance driven, a large opportunity here exists for developers of anode and cathode materials.
To successfully enter and maintain its hold in the newer market segments listed above before strong inroads are made by other battery chemistries, the lithium-ion battery, NanoMarkets believes, needs materials advancements to propel it out of the performance plateau that the current industry standard has found itself in. As a result, the time is ripe for a profound improvement in the performance of the lithium-ion battery, and novel electrode materials are being investigated to provide this:
• The current graphite anode, and the lithium-cobalt cathode used in the most common lithium-ion chemistry are at the point of being phased out because they are nearing the limit of technological innovations that significantly improve their performance. The fact that the lithium-ion battery hasn't had a strong performance boost in recent years, leaves the door open for other battery chemistries to make strong cases for themselves.
• Nonetheless, there is no outstanding novel electrode material technology that has made it to the production line and satisfies the expected increasing demands in battery performance.
• Additionally, certain technologies have proved to be better at addressing specific value propositions. There are inherent tradeoffs when attempting to improve the performance of the lithium-ion battery, and this makes it nearly impossible to find a material improvement that will provide an improvement on all fronts. Each technology addresses the needs of particular market segments, and with targeted efforts, material developers will see a real revenue opportunity from potentially high volume and/or high growth market segments.
The development of advanced materials that will replace the current state of the art anodes and cathodes is based on the improvement in energy density and/or (depending on the market segment) power density provided to the battery. Having mentioned the "make or break" nature of the energy and power density properties, it is important to note that each market segment will identify certain key secondary properties that materials developers need to have a very strong handle on. Weight, form factor, life cycle and environmental impact are a few such examples. This is where product differentiation among electrode technologies will decide which materials will excel in a given market segment. While the differences may be subtle between market segments, it is the deciding factor between materials producers not aligning the value proposition of their product with the demand of their target segment.
Cathode improvements: Cathode materials tend to provide more diversity in terms of the cell characteristics they have an impact on. While anode materials are being investigated mostly to improve the energy density of the cell, various cathode materials can either improve the energy or the power density, provide faster charging times, more safety and/or lower costs.
The cathode reaction in the lithium-ion cell is also a safety concern, and while the potential to improve the energy density must be considered, the stability of the materials in the cell environment is a crucial concern.
A lithium-manganese based cathode is right now the furthest penetrating competitive technology to the conventional lithium-cobalt cathode. Other materials that bear looking at are:
• Lithium iron phosphates and their derivatives.
• Composites of nickel, manganese and cobalt are being developed specifically for the automotive market segment. With development being pushed in tandem by established companies in both the battery and automotive spaces, we can expect this technology to be a frontrunner to capture the opportunity in that segment.
Anode improvements: Next generation anode technologies are typically identified by their potential to hold lithium ions. In general, replacement anode materials have been less common than those for cathode materials:
• At this stage silicon, nanostructured carbon, and oxides of titanium and vanadium have been identified as viable alternatives to graphite for this enhanced ability.
• The metal oxide materials are seeing development in the labs of the larger, more established materials suppliers. Hence, their entry time into the market is expected to be quicker due to ease of integration with current battery manufacturing processes.
• Silicon has the highest theoretical capacity for lithium ions, but until recently has had problems with durability. However structural modifications to the silicon electrode have let it become a potentially disruptive technology in this market. The silicon anode is a materials technology that is being pioneered by smaller, early stage companies hoping to make a strong impact in the industry. While it has a longer development timeline, its potential to make an impact is sizeable, making it a materials technology worth investigating.
Nanomaterials: The manipulation of the physical structure of the active electrode material also creates another opportunity in this space. In an effort to increase the surface area for the storage of charge and to address issues with durability (due to the significant expansion and contraction of some materials when they take up or release lithium ions), developers are using processing techniques to create nanostructured versions of electrode materials.
Nanoparticles or nanotubes in the form of a powder are examples. The opportunity that could be realizable here is for producers of binding materials that provide a conducting matrix in which the nanostructures can be embedded. Binding materials are already being used in batteries to hold together powder based electrodes and improve conductivity, and will continue to see applicability as electrode materials are pushed towards powdered forms to increase surface area for lithium-ion absorption.
Finally, a big question materials developers will need to answer as they see a realizable opportunity before them in a very mature market is how they are going to integrate their product into the production line of battery manufacturers.
The more established companies like Sony, Sanyo and Samsung will already have this in mind when thinking of the materials they are developing but new entrants to this market will have the added burden of creating manufacturing processes compatible with current production processes unless they want to bear the manufacturing cost of the entire battery. A company's approach to this challenge will be a significant product differentiator and will determine of which market it can realistically meet the unit volume demands.
Published: January 04, 2012 Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy
From NanoMarkets' upcoming report, CIGS Photovoltaics Markets 2012
Thin-film photovoltaic (TFPV) cells using Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS) as the absorber material have been promoted as the “next big thing” in PV for almost a decade.
After years of results that have been disappointing compared to consensus expectations, it is high time to take a sober look at the market for CIGS going forward in light of the current state of the technology and competitiveness of CIGS compared to other PV technologies. Other factors playing into the mix are the likelihood of decreased subsidies for PV going forward in North America and Europe, and the effect of significant increases in known reserves of natural gas, which have lowered and stabilized prices compared to the volatility and high prices seen in the 2007-2008 timeframe.
While there have been many disappointments for CIGS both with respect to the technology and its viability compared to competing products, the available data today is becoming much clearer with respect to:
• How close CIGS is to credible large-scale production than it has been before,
• Its price compared to other technologies, and
• The reliability of CIGS modules in real world applications.
As the efficiency of CIGS material is the highest of the thin-film PV absorbers, and it can be made into flexible modules, the key area where CIGS seems poised to dominate is in the building integrated photovoltaic area (BIPV). Here its light weight and efficiency, which increases the amount of electricity generated per area, are significant advantages over competing technologies.
While some start ups in the field such as Solyndra have imploded, other large manufacturing firms have aggressive CIGS product ramps planned. The increased competition from Taiwan and China will result in a shake-out in the industry, but ultimately will yield a price point that will likely lead to the adoption of CIGS in BIPV and others areas where module flexibility and high efficiency are key “care about” areas.
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Published: December 15, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
After many years of being no more than a niche, the smart windows market now seems as if it is about to generate major revenues for companies that are actively involved. Drivers include:
• Growing consumer awareness of energy conservation, green building, fuel efficient transportation, and the desire for novelty and convenience.
• Larger addressable markets as the result of emerging middle class populations in Asia (India, China) and Latin America (Brazil).
Meanwhile, new smart windows technologies are emerging that enable energy conservation through smart windows and hence are providing several growth opportunities for various companies in the smart window value chain:
• The smart windows market provides growth opportunities to everyone from materials/coatings suppliers to glass manufacturers to window manufacturers, and most importantly to end users such as builders, building owners, home owners, and transportation owners.
• No matter what technologies emerge as the winners, glass manufacturers are certainly going to be the beneficiaries of smart window growth. One factor that will help with acceptance of the slightly higher cost of smart glass compared to the standard glass used in buildings and transportation is the already high current cost of standard glass; substituting standard windows with functional smart windows with only a marginally higher cost will be more easily accepted by the consumer.
• As the demand volume for smart glass increases, there will be further growth opportunities through cost reductions for smart coatings and materials and in smart glass manufacturing.
Passive Smart Windows
Although awareness of smart windows has only increased in recent years, in reality smart windows have existed for at least the last 15. These older smart windows were produced by retrofitting existing windows with window films based on low-e coatings that provide energy savings. We classify these retrofitted windows as passive smart windows; while these films are functionally smart, they do not provide their functional benefits “on-demand”.
• There are many retrofit window film products that impart functionality and provide other benefits to windows. These benefits include the blocking of harmful UV radiation from sunlight, the blocking of heat coming inside through the window in the summer, and the retention of heat inside a room and the maintenance of the ambient indoor temperature in the winter. They all enable energy conservation by reducing the use of energy to keep buildings warm in the winter and cool in the summer.
• There are other window film products that also improve the aesthetics of the room. These films eliminate the need for traditional window treatments such as blinds, shades, curtains, etc. and save on maintenance costs.
Although the films designed for retrofitting of windows have been available for a long time, due to their evident additional installation costs, the market for these products has started growing only in recent years along with the increasing awareness of energy conservation.
A note on self-cleaning windows: Yet another category of passive smart windows is self-cleaning windows. These windows offer more convenience than energy savings. Owners of buildings (commercial and residential) spend quite a bit of money and time to maintain the windows so that they provide a clear, aesthetically pleasing view of the exterior environment. However, while self-cleaning windows do provide the benefit of eliminating the labor costs associated with maintenance, the cost of applying these coatings vs. the savings in maintenance costs is difficult to justify for existing windows.
NanoMarkets therefore believes that self-cleaning windows will be more easily adopted in new construction where the impact of the additional cost of self-cleaning coatings can be softened with the overall cost of a smart window. As the self-cleaning window concept becomes more accepted in new construction, the cost of self-cleaning coatings will decrease and enable growth in the retrofit market as well.
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Published: December 14, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
Supporting the case for a future in which nanometals generate new business opportunities is the fact that they have—under other names—been around for some time already. This means that there are established technical skillsets, supply chains, etc., that can be brought to bear on the current nanometal opportunities. What one must take into consideration in assessing the market potential for nanometals are:
• Very thin layers of metals are routinely deposited using vacuum evaporation, sputtering, etc. in the semiconductor industry. Although this industry regularly operates at dimensions under 100 nm, it is not usually considered to be “nanotechnology,” presumably on the grounds that sub-100-nm microelectronics is part of a mature pattern that follows Moore’s Law, while nanotechnology is supposedly something leading edge. Nonetheless, the above indicates that the fabrication machinery exists to set down metals that are nanometals in at least one dimension.
• Some nanometals are now used routinely in medical and healthcare applications. Nanosilver powders are a powerful antibacterial and antifungal agent and colloidal nanosilver has been used in a variety of treatments for decades. Nanogold has some interesting applications (at least potentially) in the treatment of cancer and other diseases.
These established uses for nanometals again suggest established skillsets that can be leveraged into other applications spaces; electronics and energy applications. But there are also other ways in which the use of nanometals in medicine has implications for the energy and electronics space. One of these is the fact that developments of new materials for medicine have implications for medical electronics. Another is the fact that history here has implications for how much it may be possible to regulate nanosilver and therefore restrict its use/sale in electronics and energy applications. The regulatory powers of government agencies are often defined in terms of their power over “new” materials and it has been argued that—because of the longstanding use of colloidal silver—nanosilver is not new.
• There is also already a supply chain of sorts for nanometals for energy and electronics applications. However, these applications are today found mostly in the R&D/university research community. This is a start, but it is important to remember that this community has entirely different needs than the commercial electronics and energy industries. Most obviously we are talking about much smaller volumes in the research community and higher prices than the commercial electronics and energy industries could support.
Less obviously, the research community is anxious to have available as many nanomaterials as possible so that they can explore as many different directions as possible. By contrast, mainstream industries want to standardize on as few materials as possible, so that experience curves can be climbed and economies of scale achieved. One implication of this situation is that there are opportunities for firms to develop reformed supply chains for nanometals that are more appropriate to the higher volume markets that NanoMarkets sees appearing in the near future.
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Published: November 28, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
There is nothing intrinsically new about transparent electronic materials. Glass and (more recently) transparent plastic have been used as substrates for displays, solar panels and large-area sensors for years. In addition, a range of transparent conducting materials—notably indium tin oxide (ITO)—has been developed for use in transparent electrodes. And, of course, optoelectronic materials—of which there are many—must be transparent to some degree.
Until quite recently the statements above were at best a set of interesting, but unconnected, observations. Over the past decade new transparent electronic semiconductor materials—primarily metallic oxides—have appeared and there are now increasing signs that a complete transparent materials set may emerge in the electronics sector. These materials, NanoMarkets believes, will serve as an important enabling factor for new products in the display, smart windows, lighting, solar panel and large-area sensor markets; perhaps other sectors too.
Despite appearing to be very different, these application areas actually have quite a lot in common; in fact they overlap. A smart window could also be a display, lighting or solar panel, for example. And all of the areas mentioned above qualify as large-area electronics in some sense. Finally, displays, smart windows, solar panels, panel lighting and large-area sensors are similar enough that they share a number of important desirable features such a strong aesthetics, efficiency, etc.
While each of these product types has its own requirements, the similarities among them seem sufficient for this entire group of applications and products to benefit in similar ways from a coherent and comprehensive transparent materials set. Such a materials set would serve as a key enabling technology adding features and functions to transparent electronics. In other words, there is an opportunity to develop a more comprehensive and higher performing transparent materials set that could enable transparent electronic products to evolve to a point where they themselves can generate more revenues. This, of course, is also an opportunity in its own right.
Oxides, Organics and Nanotech: Materials for Transparent Electronics
Parts of the electronics suite are already well developed. This is particularly true for transparent conductors, which have received considerable attention over the past few years. This high level of interest, however, has occurred not so much because of transparent electronics in the sense that we are using the term here, but rather because of the need for improved transparent conductors in the display and solar panel industries more generally. In particular, these industries have looked for ways to get around the lack of flexibility and high cost associated with the industry standard transparent conductor, indium tin oxide. Transparent conductors that have been proposed as an alternative to ITO include transparent conductive oxides other than ITO, conductive polymers and various nanomaterials.
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Published: November 21, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
The Effect of the High Price on Silver on the Industrial Inks and Pastes Market
Silver has always been an expensive metal and probably always will be. But the most obvious change in the silver inks/pastes market since our last report is the seemingly persistent high price of silver, with no relief in sight. Silver commodity prices have been pushed upward because of the uncertain global economic environment in which investors have shifted increasingly toward “hard” assets. Silver ETFs have accumulated large stores of silver in order to handle the increased demand for precious metal investments.
At the time of writing, silver prices have somewhat stabilized, but they have done so at a level nearly twice that of just two years ago (in inflation-adjusted dollars). And there are no good reasons that the situation will change very much over the next five years or so.
None of this is especially good news for the silver inks and pastes business, since the price of these materials is largely determined by the price of silver and these materials are often sold into moderately price sensitive environments. Despite these negatives, however, there are some reasons for executives in the silver inks and pastes business not to feel too depressed:
• The high price of silver is now a fact of life for the electronics industry. On the one hand, its unique conductivity characteristics ensure that silver is hard to dispense with in many applications.
• Where silver inks and pastes can be dispensed with their high price will enable supplier firms to develop silver inks and pastes substitutes with an assurance that the market for them will persist. In the past, silver ink/paste substitutes have appeared and then disappeared when the price of silver fell again. Given the current economic climate, it seems that the manufacturers of silver ink/paste substitutes are in for the long haul this time around.
• Counteracting ongoing worldwide economic sluggishness will be increased industrialization and urbanization of the developing world; which is likely to increase the per capita expenditures on the kinds of products in which silver inks and pastes are used. And, of course, silver inks and pastes are now used in so many consumer products that the increase in the world population is itself a spur to demand for silver inks and pastes.
• There are a number of interesting applications for silver inks and pastes that are just emerging. They include, for example, OLED lighting, and sensors. NanoMarkets believes that there are real opportunities here, but we also caution that some traditional applications that use quite a lot of silver paste at the present time are likely to experience at best modest growth, and this could hurt the silver inks and pastes business in the next few years. Examples here are plasma TVs (in long-term decline) and crystalline silicon solar panels (a market likely to see a decline in government support).
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Published: November 15, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
In a touch display, the touch sensor sits on top of the display (or potentially it is integrated into the display) and the display itself is most likely to use conventional LCD technology, although e-paper and OLEDs are also a possibility. Both the sensor and the display will use transparent electrode material and in both cases this material at the present time is likely to be indium tin oxide (ITO), but alternatives to ITO are increasingly a realistic possibility.
In fact, it is possible for the sensor and the main display in a “touch screen” to use a different kind of transparent conductor. This possibility is reinforced by the fact that the touch sensor is typically manufactured by a specialist sensor firm, which is not the major LCD firm that makes the underlying display. Indeed, among the manufacturers of transparent conductors, touch-screen sensors, these days, are everyone's favorite market for ITO alternatives. The reasons for this are easy enough to understand:
• The touch-screen display market is exploding. Touch screens have been found in niche applications since the 1960s, but with the arrival of iPhones and tablet computers, touch has become ubiquitous. Almost all touch display technologies make use of ITO, so there appears to be a growing opportunity/addressable market for ITO alternatives for the touch sensors used in touch displays.
• Touch-displays seem to have a special and immediate need for ITO replacement. ITO is notoriously fragile and inflexible. Touch displays are—by definition—touched frequently and therefore the sensors are at risk of damage. This would seem to enhance the need for ITO alternatives in this sector.
• It is easier to get into the touch sensor business than into the main flat-panel display business. There are numerous firms in the touch sensor business, but far fewer flat- panel display (FPD) makers and in any case—given that they have invested huge amounts into display fabs—they are always reluctant to take on new materials or processes. In addition, touch sensors often have somewhat lower performance requirements than FPDs, making market entry for novel materials makers somewhat easier.
Another related issue is that touch-sensor firms already buy-in their transparent conductor on a film and what the firms that sell alternative transparent conductors have on offer is, in a sense, "plug compatible." Compare to the main LCD makers, who do their own sputtering and are unlikely to abandon their unamortized sputtering plant or take on the (potentially large) economic switching costs of entirely new transparent conductor materials and processing technologies.
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Published: October 25, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials OLED Lighting
Development of OLED technology for lighting markets is not as mature as for displays, but NanoMarkets still expects this sector to grow dramatically over the coming decade. And because OLED lighting panels are likely to be a (1) a mass market and (2) consist of panels a lot larger than the average OLED displays, the market for OLED lighting materials should ultimately be a lot larger than those for materials in the display sector. However, much more risk is associated with the lighting sector, for materials suppliers and just about everyone else.
NanoMarkets believes that materials suppliers will play a big role in whether the OLED lighting industry booms or settles into a niche pattern. For real, sustained growth in OLED lighting, new, better materials and processes are needed to enable this growth.
OLED Lighting Manufacturing Capacity Shaping the Need for Materials
The OLED lighting materials business will be shaped initially by the needs and preferences of those pioneer firms that are bringing the first OLED lighting panels to market. At the present time, the manufacturing infrastructure for OLED lighting is still at an early phase of development, but it has moved past the laboratory stage to pilot plants. From at least some of the OLED manufacturing companies, there have also been statements of intent regarding both plans for expansion and the kinds of manufacturing facilities that they plan to deploy. However, these statements have been made over a period of years, and it is hard to know how seriously to treat them, especially in this era of financial instability.
This uncertainly presents a real challenge to the materials firms hoping to supply the OLED lighting industry. The challenge consists of determining how much capacity there is likely to be for OLED lighting over the coming decade, who will be providing that capacity, and where the capacity will be built. It also includes determining which materials will be required. Will the OLED manufacturing continue to largely run classic vapor deposition equipment, or will solution processing take hold? If solution processing succeeds, will it be in the form of small-molecule materials or will polymer OLEDs finally make a play in lighting?
OLED Lighting Materials: Risks and Uncertainties
Some of the OLED materials firms that we have talked with, see exciting possibilities for their businesses in the OLED lighting market, but they also perceive the high risk. For now these materials firms are now supplying relatively small amounts of OLED materials to these first OLED lighting manufacturing plants may well emerge as the materials market leaders later in the decade. Among the most important current
issues that materials firms have tho think about in the OLED lighting space are:
The situation of all of these areas is very fluid and in all of them changes could completely reshape the opportunity profile for OLED lighting materials suppliers.
The dominance of UDC: At the moment, UDC holds an essential position with a dominant intellectual property (IP) portfolio focused on small-molecule phosphorescent emitter technologies. And even more importantly, UDC has been very successful in getting OLED lighting manufacturers to employ UDC technology, through partnerships and licensing deals.
However, the recent invalidation of a key UDC PHOLED patent in Japan may mean that the market will open up to other materials firms. This decision is under appeal, and its long term implications have yet to become apparent. In the past, the ability of other materials firms to gain a foothold in emissive technologies for OLED lighting has been hampered by UDC’s dominance.
The role of China: There are now several Chinese firms making OLED materials, and there is at least one firm in Mainland China – Visionox – producing OLED lighting panels. Most of the principal OLED materials firms are in the developed world but given the determination of the Chinese government to create more domestically sourced IP and given that OLEDs are a particular topic of its attention, NanoMarkets believes that competition from Chinese companies in the OLED lighting materials space.
Solution-processing of small molecules: This solution processing approach has the potential to deliver the advantages of solution processing to the OLED industry without forcing the industry to shift to an entirely new kind of material (i.e., polymers):
However, at this time, only GE, in cooperation with DuPont, is planning to use solution-processable small molecules to build OLED lighting panels, and it not certain whom else DuPont – and any others developing solution processable small molecules like UDC – can persuade to buy into the idea.
At the same time, GE is struggling to commercialize the solution-processed materials, and the current status of the GE pilot line is uncertain. It is not yet entirely clear what this will mean for the future prospects of solution processing in OLEDs, but we think it is safe to say that solution processing – especially printing – has proven much harder than the industry initially expected.
Polymers in OLED lighting: Sumitomo Chemical with its ownership of CDT controls the nexus of polymer OLED EML material IP. However, although Sumitomo and other proponents of polymer OLED technologies continue to push for polymers to gain entry into the market, not a single OLED lighting manufacturer is actually using polymers today. As a result, Sumitomo remains a marginal player in the OLED lighting space.
NanoMarkets believes that polymer OLEDs might have a role for really large lighting panels at some time in the future, but given the lack of activity with polymers in lighting today, we think that it is fair to say that betting on a vibrant market for polymers in lighting is taking a big risk.
How Materials Firms Can Win the OLED Lighting Battle
For now the only serious commercial markets for OLED lighting are to be found in the luxury luminaire market and that is where the OLED lighting business will stay unless costs can be reduced. All projections – including ours – that show OLED lighting reaching revenues in the billions of dollars assume major reductions in OLED lighting costs from where they are now. This is not an entirely materials related issue.
Nonetheless, it is closely related to materials and it presents opportunities for the materials makers:
Economies of scale that will come into being as the OLED business as a whole ramps up. At the moment, pricing for OLED materials sits uncomfortably between the kind of pricing one expects for materials sold largely into R&D environments and ones that apply in commercial specialty chemical markets. Opportunities exist for materials firms that can shift their pricing structure more towards the latter.
Initial costs for OLED lighting – as for other solid-state lighting – will be high and the only way that OLED lighting can be expected to prove in economically will be in terms of a total cost model. This in turn depends heavily on lifetimes and also on luminance, both of which are heavily materials-dependent challenges. Several different materials in the OLED stack can affect lifetime, including the emissive technology used and the quality of the encapsulation scheme.
Indeed, cost is not the only factor critical to the success in the OLED lighting space that the materials firms can impact and with which they can achieve a competitive edge. Much of the raison d’etre for OLED lighting in the first place is enhanced efficiency and that is very largely a materials issues.
There are also materials issues that relate to panel itself:
At the present time, OLED panels are quite small; too small to be competitive in the office lighting market, for example, which is where some observers of the OLED lighting scene, expect OLED lighting to get its big break. Materials – both substrates and active organics – may have a role in taking OLED lighting to the next stage; that is larger panels.
The stage after that, as many people see it will be flexible – or at least conformable – lighting panels. This transition to flexibility is materials dependent and will rely on the availability of suitable substrates and, most importantly, on high performance/low cost flexible encapsulation materials.
Thus the future of the OLED lighting market is heavily dependent on materials selection, and the maturity—and prices—of available OLED materials remain a challenge to market. However, this should be seen as an opportunity for materials makers, especially since the potential volumes are so high. Assuming for the moment that OLED lighting is able to capture even just a few percent of the lighting market, the square footage of OLED lighting sold will be considerable and will easily outshine the amount of OLED material sold for displays. This makes it a market that OLED materials suppliers cannot afford to miss.
Published: October 24, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
The value that would be created by a flexible glass material has long been recognized. Supposedly the Roman Emperor Tiberius was presented with a drinking bowl made of flexible glass. The Emperor threw the bowl on the floor and it dented rather than shattered. But not much seems to have been heard of flexible glass since. NanoMarkets research has uncovered that over the past few decades the term “flexible glass” has come to be used in a metaphorical sense, to describe a series of materials that were made from resins and plastics and that otherwise had glass-like properties. Unfortunately these flexible pseudo-glasses could seldom compete with actual glass in terms of transparency or in its barrier qualities.
However, since the early 21st Century a handful of leading glass companies have been developing genuinely flexible glasses that are the heirs to Tiberius’ bowl. The firms involved in this work include AGC (more commonly referred to as Asahi Glass), Nippon Electric Glass (NEG), Tokyo Electron Glass (TEG) and Schott Glass. However, the firm that is most closely associated with flexible glass is Corning, which certainly has the greatest mindshare in this space and has done the most business development work to promote the concept of flexible device.
Nonetheless, actual flexible glass has proved slow to develop and bring into the marketplace. This is surprising in a way in that all we are really talking about here is regular glass that has been made exceedingly thin so that it can be flexed. Meanwhile, a few flexible pseudo-glasses remain out in the marketplace, but are sufficiently different from real glass to be a distinct category of product and to be clearly distinguished from regular glass in terms of the value they can offer.
Conversely, as the Tiberius story seems to suggest glass is highly and intrinsically valued, but its inherent rigidity would seem to detract from its value. The story also suggests that flexible glass could address some very large markets indeed and this possibility shouldn’t be dismissed lightly. However, for now the flexible glass will be used primarily within what would be regarded as the electronics industry.
More specifically, there is an understandable connection made between flexible glass and flexible electronics, because flexible glass would apparently represent an excellent substrate and barrier material for flexible electronics products. However, NanoMarkets believes that there are more immediate markets for the first wave of flexible glass offerings to tap into.
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Published: October 19, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials
When NanoMarkets first started providing analysis of the transparent conductor (TC) industry, some six years or so ago, the industry was easy to characterize. ITO ruled the roost, except where the market was looking for especially low-cost solutions; in antistatic applications. True, executives in the display industry – and even in the transparent conductor industry itself – knew all the unkind things to say about ITO. It cracked, it cost a lot, even that it had a yellowish tinge, etc., etc.
When one examined at the alternatives, ITO began to look pretty good. None of them could compete with ITO on the crucial transparency and conductivity parameters. In any case, most of the alternatives to ITO were not ready for prime time; at best they were in that limbo phase called sampling. The threat to ITO from its rivals was negligible.
The one exception to this rule was in the thin-film PV (TFPV) application, where alternative transparent conducting oxides (TCOs) quickly made their mark. First Solar the dominant supplier has adopted FTO as its transparent conductor, while most of the firms in the CIGS space use AZO. In the a-Si PV sector, FTO and AZO are also used. As an aside, there is an important takeaway from all this. Applications that are relatively new – such as TFPV – are more likely to adopt new TCs. By contrast consider the conventional – and highly established -- LCD industry, which continues to demonstrate considerable reluctance to ITO alternatives.
While the use of TCOs other than ITO in the TFPV industry is proof positive that, ITO doesn’t always get to win; it hardly represented a paradigm shift. It was, after all, a just a switch from one TCO to another. In the past year to two years, we have seen something genuinely new in the TC space; the rise of the nanomaterials.
Nano-TCs: More Firms, More Materials, More Applications
By rise, we have in mind three things. First, while there have been firms around developing nanomaterial approaches to rival ITO, there are now a lot more such firms and they appear to have been quite successful in attracting capital. Second, there is now considerable diversity in the nanomaterials being offered in this sector. A few years back nanomaterial challenges to ITO consisted entirely of carbon nanotube inks. Take a look at this space now and you will also see silver nanostructures in solution, silver grids, copper-based solutions and graphene. As NanoMarkets discusses in its upcoming report, we would not be surprised to see nanostructured polymers also enter this fray.
The third aspect of the rise of the nanomaterials materials that needs to be considered is that some of these materials might now reasonably be considers to be commercialized. True, some of these materials remain well within the lab, but some are out there is products that you can buy now. One of the important messages that have come out of the interview program that NanoMarkets has just completed with manufacturers of TCs is that several nanomaterials are now commercialized. They are being used in a very small number of products and often in limited quantities. But in the past year they have crossed an important barrier.
Marketing, Messaging and Conductive Nanomaterials
What all this means is that firms that have in the past focused on developing materials that can be sold into the TC space must now change track and focus on marketing. Until now such firms have largely been able to get away with vague statements about targeting the touch screen market, or “flexible displays,” or something of this sort. But this won’t get them very far in terms of actually generating new business revenues.
One part of the marketing strategy for “nano-TCs” will certainly be to match the material’s capability to the opportunities. A material that will make a superb antistatic coating for the outside of a touch panel may be completely unsuitable for the transparent conductive material in the touch sensor itself. In a few cases, nanomaterials may actually facilitate new applications. The example that is usually mentioned in this context is that of flexible displays; but flexible displays have challenges other than the TC one. Where we are seeing nano-TCs going where ITO fears to tread is in the large panel sector, where ITO isn’t sufficient to bring the electricity to the outer limits of the panel. Such panels exist in the PV sector and it is easy to imagine similar problems appearing in large displays or in the OLED lighting sector.
Above all, the nano-ITO firms are going to have to message effectively and this is something that they have never done especially well. For example, we often hear about how ITO suffers from a yellow tinge. But how much does this really matter in the marketplace, especially when your nano-TC has a blue tinge or a grey tinge! One factor that does matter of course is cost and if you can show that your nano-ITO is lower cost than ITO you are in good shape. But what does that really mean? Are the old stories about the impact on the price on indium on the price of ITO just old wives’ tales? Some people think they are. But NanoMarkets analysis suggests that we just don’t know!
Messaging and marketing are going to be major challenges for firms offering new solutions (both literally and figuratively) in the TC marketplace.
Published: October 18, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials OLED Lighting
While our recent report is not intended as a guide for venture capital (VC) or strategic investors, but it is possible to identify some market needs in the OLED encapsulation sector that may be of potential interest.
The following factors that lead us to believe that there are some real opportunities for investment include:
• After many years of languishing, OLEDs have finally emerged as a real market, and the opportunities for growth are great, especially for firms that can offer encapsulation technologies with tangible performance and cost benefits over the market-dominant cover glass strategies in use today.
• The biggest growth sectors for OLEDs are in larger-format panels, both in OLED TV displays and, even more importantly, in OLED lighting. Therefore, the total addressable area for OLED encapsulation is set to expand greatly as these markets grow, which will lead to higher volumes for materials suppliers.
• In the highest growth markets—OLED TVs and OLED lighting—requirements for encapsulation barrier performance are greater than found in the smaller displays on the market today. As a result, the opportunities are greater for firms to differentiate themselves and gain market share based on encapsulation that enables better lifetime performance.
Given the above factors, NanoMarkets believes that there are some potential areas where new or additional investment might be justified:
• Multilayer, or better yet, single layer, laminates that actually deliver on the promise of low cost manufacturing using polymers and polymeric substrates without sacrificing barrier performance.
• Truly flexible OLEDs, which would require truly flexible encapsulation, are still far in the future, but there is real opportunity to expand the capabilities of OLED devices by offering partially bendable or conformable encapsulation options. If partial flexibility is all that is really required, then there are probably already several dyad and similar technologies available today that just need a slight nudge to get them into the market.
• Flexible glass should not be ignored. The performance benefits of glass are simply too great to overlook. And since glass manufacturing costs are closely linked to weight, thin flexible glass may be able to reduce costs even more that might be expected at first glance. Furthermore, since truly flexible OLEDs seem to be perpetually several years away from commercialization, the partial, yet real, flexibility of thin, flexible glass may be just what is needed for larger format, high volume OLED manufacturing of OLED TVs and OLED lighting.
From where will the investment originate? We do not anticipate any new outside investment in cover glass encapsulation. Instead, we expect that the major glass companies—Asahi Glass, NEG, Corning, etc.—will continue to dominate cover glass technology improvements through offerings like air-gap free or frit-sealed covers. There is just no compelling reason for any new firms to enter. The expertise within the glass industry is extensive, the competition among them is already fierce, and all the major firms have broad, active R&D programs aimed at new sectors like OLEDs.
However, there may be significant opportunities for productive outside investment in non-glass encapsulation. There are several factors that will positively impact investment in non-traditional technologies:
• Clearly, investors will only act if they believe that the OLED market will grow well beyond its size today. Fortunately, the indications are that it will. OLEDs in smartphones are taking off, with Samsung leading the way; OLED TVs are expected to finally be widely available in the very near term; and OLED lighting is poised to grow to be the largest addressable market of all. And all of these markets could benefit from encapsulation technologies that improve barrier performance while also reducing costs associated with heavy, batch process cover glass.
• Although investors are attracted to companies with demonstrated sales, which are hard to come by at this point, they may also be attracted to technologies that demonstrate big performance advantages with the promise of large investment gains down the road. As we have already noted, non-glass encapsulation strategies based on low-cost, R2R-compatible barrier laminates could gain significant market share in the mid- to long-term. The growth sectors for OLEDs in TV displays and in lighting will both rely on high volume manufacturing to realize economies of scale sufficient to bring costs down to levels that support truly widespread consumer adoption, and R2R production would clearly be a step in this direction.
• Since the barrier performance requirements in OLED encapsulation are stricter than in almost any other sector, the addressable market is even larger than it seems at first glance. Of particular interest is the photovoltaics industry, which is itself in an upward growth trajectory, and which significantly expands the market for encapsulation. Investors can capitalize on this expanding market as way to leverage their specific technology across two industries—one which is "easier" (photovoltaics) and the other which is perhaps more of a stretch initially (OLEDs).
But what kind of investors are we really talking about? Are these venture capital opportunities, or something else? In NanoMarkets' opinion, we think that additional or new VC investment is unlikely, if for no other reason than that the OLED industry has already been around long enough for VC firms to get in (and get back out, in some cases); the time for high risk/high return investing has probably passed. Investment from angel investors is more likely than VC investment, but again here we think their time has largely passed.
In contrast, investment in the form of takeovers by large industrial firms, especially big consolidated firms in the display or lighting device or materials industries, is far more likely.
• Large and mid-size firms already in the display or lighting markets can more readily be pulled into strategic deals based on synergies that lead to larger cash flows than pure equity investors would realize.
• In addition, NanoMarkets believes that it will continue to be important for encapsulation firms to be sufficiently linked into the OLED supply chain, and that it will be increasingly important for all existing and new encapsulation suppliers to partner closely with end-users.
• In fact, we have already seen OLED manufacturers acquire encapsulation firms with Samsung's de facto takeover of the Vitex Barix technology, and we expect this trend to continue with other encapsulation firms.
Published: October 18, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
NanoMarkets will be releasing a new report in November on flexibe substrates. See here for details.
Flexible electronics have attracted a great deal of interest in recent years. At least in theory, they offer a number of important advantages for displays, lighting, solar panels and sensors. In addition, flexibility to some degree is implied in the notion of R2R processing. Each of these applications requires different strategic thinking about the appropriate flexible substrate to use, but there is also an important commonality which NanoMarkets believes will create a vibrant market for flexible substrates of all kinds.
The Big Problem With Selling Substrates into the Flexible Display Market: Flexible Displays Don’t Exist!
Flexible displays have been proposed for about a decade now and have been on show at display conferences and exhibitions for about as long. They are frequently cited by literature in the printed and organic electronics disciplines as an important trend for the future. In addition, within the community of firms making materials suitable for flexible substrates, there is a view that there is considerable potential for making sales to a vibrant flexible display market of the future.
For the time being this potential is just that - potential and little more:
• We think that substrate firms should be careful not to talk themselves into believing that there is more here than meets the eye. Certainly, they should not expect much short term revenue from the flexible display sector. As yet there have been no flexible displays that are commercially available and promises made by a few firms to bring such displays to market have been broken.
• That said, flexible displays do seem to have the potential for real world applications -- if anyone could build them, that is -- and the recent announcement by Samsung that it plans to introduce these displays to the market has lent them considerable credibility.
The main application for flexible displays would be to enable portable displays of reasonable size that can be plugged into a cell phone to serve better as a video device or IT tool. The first real rollable displays now look like they will as likely be OLED displays, since OLEDs can provide superb color, while the most common e-paper technologies are color-challenged:
• Conformability only would seem to be good enough for flexible substrates used in signage applications.
• From the substrate perspective, rollability will probably suffice for now in the display sector, but the idea of a display that can be crumpled up and put in one’s pocket, implies three-dimensional flexibility - a technology that doesn’t exist yet.
• Three-dimensional flexibility would seem to fit well with the e-paper concept, since real paper is flexible in this sense. For a time, “e-paper” and “flexible displays” seem to be synonyms for each other.
Substrates for flexible displays may be relatively undemanding in terms of durability, at least at first when they are used with cell phones; cell phones generally last between a year and two years. However, electrical and optical requirements for substrates used in displays may be more stringent. For example, a substrate that stretches a bit might be acceptable for a PV panel, but with a display it would tend to distort the picture. Very tight electrical specifications are required for much the same reason.
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Published: October 10, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials OLED Lighting
OLEDs are highly vulnerable to oxygen and water vapor, so they present an encapsulation issue; developments to improve barrier performance have been discussed in the OLED industry since its earliest days. Until recently, however, OLED encapsulation materials represented a relatively small market for chemical companies and a few startups. For many years there were few signs that OLEDs were going to break out of their niche market pattern, with almost all of the OLED market being accounted for by passive matrix displays for MP3 payers, cell phone sub-displays, etc.
The situation was further complicated by the popular notion among OLED manufacturers that encapsulation was the least of their worries, since most OLEDs could be successfully encapsulated in a stack that often also included desiccant under glass using epoxy adhesives for edge sealing. The simple glass and epoxy encapsulation approach was not only all that was required for small displays, it was all that display makers were willing to pay for, and it continues to be the principal encapsulation strategy in place today.
Even as the size of the passive matrix OLED business grew, true opportunities for OLED encapsulation were highly limited, and few materials firms were able to sustain a business based on encapsulation materials alone. And although materials suppliers were initially happy to supply these applications, they did so with the expectation that markets large enough to justify their efforts would eventually emerge.
Finally, A Growing Market for OLEDs Emerges
Fortunately (at least for encapsulation systems makers), the opportunities have grown in recent years in important ways:
• OLED displays have at last been “mainstreamed” with the arrival of mass-market cell phones containing active matrix OLEDs as primary displays; NanoMarkets has estimated that the size of the total OLED materials market exceeded $300 million in 2011.
• Meanwhile, OLED lighting is now on the market in the form of “designer” chandeliers and table lamps, and larger segments of the lighting market are likely to be penetrated by OLED lighting in the next few years.
• And while the first attempts to introduce OLED TVs stumbled, it seems that 2012 or 2013 will see the introduction of OLED TVs on the market with much greater chances of market success than the products that preceded them.
These trends mean that the addressable market for OLED encapsulation materials is rapidly growing and should continue to do so. Importantly, the fastest-growing applications for OLEDs involve larger-area panels that by definition consume relatively larger amounts of materials. NanoMarkets predicts that the OLED materials market will reach over $5 Billion in sales by 2018, and at least 10%, or about $500 Million, of this revenue will come from encapsulation materials and technologies. But the success of the market is not a foregone conclusion; better encapsulation technologies at reasonable costs are required if larger-format OLEDs are going to meet their potential.
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Published: October 10, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials OLED Lighting
NanoMarkets predicts that the OLED materials market will increase from $317 million in 2011 to just over $5 billion in 2018, with revenues from cathode, anode and encapsulation materials gaining in importance over the period.
This strong growth is fueled by a sea change in the status of the OLED industry. For many years, the industry has been plagued with the low volume/high price conundrum for several years. Bu that that situation appears to be changing, according to NanoMarkets’ recent report Markets for OLED Materials-2011. Cell phones with OLED main displays are now completely mainstreamed, there are perhaps as many as 20 different kinds of OLED luminaires available for purchase and the large display makers look like they are going to put a serious effort into marketing an OLED TV in the next year or so.
Hopeful Signs
For the better part of a decade, OLED materials have represented little more than a niche opportunity for specialty chemical companies and a few start-ups. These firms existed solely to serve the needs of the slow growing market for passive matrix (PM) OLED displays used in some niche applications. What is clear now, however, is that active matrix (AM) OLEDs have now matured to the point that they are about to explode into the consumer electronics marketplace. As a result, the addressable market for OLED materials will expand considerably:
• The arrival of mass-market cell phones that use OLEDs for their primary displays – the widespread use of active matrix OLEDs in Samsung phones in particular – has dispelled any doubts about the market potential for AMOLED technology.
• The potential for OLEDs is possibly greatest in the large television market, an area where color quality obviously means a great deal. Samsung, Sony and LG have all produced OLED TVs. Panasonic (in conjunction with Sumitomo) and Seiko Epson have also have worked on developing OLED TVs. LG executives have been quoted as saying that they expect to ship a 40-inch OLED TV by 2012 and that the company will build a plant capable of producing 50-inch OLED TVs with a completion date in 2012. It will not begin mass producing OLEDs until 2014, however.
• Considerable attention is now also being given to lighting using OLED panels. The high efficiency of OLEDs has attracted the attention of governments around the world that are funding programs to promote solid-state lighting (SSL) as a replacement for the incandescent bulb. At the present time there are about 20 different OLED luminaires on the market costing in the $2,000 to $5,000 range. There have also been a slew of customized showroom installations and light sculptures that have used OLED lighting.
Despite these encouraging signs, technical issues must be addressed. New equipment and processes are necessary if traditional vapor deposition techniques are to be employed. And blue OLED materials with longer lifetimes are needed for red, green, blue (RGB) full-color displays. And these developments will need to stay ahead of continuing advances in LCD technology. Significant research programs within the industry are making progress, though, and NanoMarkets believes these technical issues will be addressed in an effective manner within the next eight years.
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Published: September 29, 2011 Category: Electronics and Devices
Emerging technology markets are difficult to forecast in part because new applications often depend on several component innovations. Each of these technologies evolves independently, but the application cannot emerge until all of the components are sufficiently mature.
Smart labels for shipping and logistics are such an application. They incorporate RFID tags, sensors, and batteries. For cost reasons, the ideal smart label would use printing technology for all three components. Yet printed electronics are just beginning to become commercially important, and as a result the technology needed to support smart labels is only starting to emerge.
The first element, the RFID tag, is probably the most mature. In its most basic form, an RFID tag is simply a remotely readable memory. It stores anywhere from a few bits to several megabytes, depending on the tag, and draws the current it needs via induction, from an RF coil in a reader device. While it’s generally agreed that future supply chains will depend on RFIDs to track everything from work-in-progress to shipping containers to individual retail packages, concrete applications have lagged behind forecasts.
RFID tagging requires a substantial investment in both the tags themselves and the supporting infrastructure of readers, data management software, and so forth. The benefits of tagging may not be realized until every item that moves through a facility is tagged, which often means that many different vendors and customers must support the project. In an airport baggage handling facility, for example, untagged pieces of luggage might have to be placed in tagged bins. The added costs of handling untagged items would offset some of the benefits of tag-based handling.
Meanwhile, ongoing weak global economic conditions have slowed all forms of business investment. Expensive projects with uncertain financial returns will continue to move slowly as long as economic conditions remain poor. At the same time, even with relatively slow adoption rates of adoption the market has already progressed to the point where many businesses and consumers are at least somewhat familiar with RFIDs. Millions of people use RFID-based tags to pay highway tolls and transit fares electronically; millions of dollars worth of high-value manufacturing depends on RFID-based WIP tracking.
Applications like RFID-based toll payment systems often add a battery, the second of our three components. While passive tags are only readable from a relatively short distance, powered tags can actively transmit to a reader some distance away. Powered tags are also appropriate for locations — such as inside vehicles and shipping containers, or inside livestock — where large quantities of metal or water reduce signal strength. These tags often appear in permanent or semi-permanent installations, and as a result the required battery life can be between three and five years or even longer. Such tags are expensive, however, and therefore not really suitable for disposable applications like smart shipping labels.
Hence the importance of our second key innovation, printed batteries. While conventional button batteries encase the electrodes and electrolyte in a metal can, printed batteries typically screenprint these layers onto a plastic (or even paper) substrate, then seal the battery with a second plastic film. Though they offer less storage capacity than conventional batteries, their solid-state nature makes them more durable and easier to integrate with smartcards, smart labels, and other low profile devices. Simplified integration, in turn, helps drive down the overall cost of systems containing printed batteries. While printed batteries do not yet offer the performance needed by active RFID tags, they offer compelling cost reductions for disposable applications. A battery-assisted tag may offer a compelling compromise between the performance and lifetime of active tags and the low cost of passive tags. Indeed, Nanomarkets expects battery-assisted RFID tags will be one of the leading markets for printed batteries for the duration of our forecast.
Once an inexpensive power source is available, many other applications become possible. With a battery, an RFID-tagged shipping label becomes an autonomous device, able to perform independent tracking and monitoring functions as the package moves through the global shipping system.
Cold chain management is one of the first smart label applications to appear. More than $30 billion in meat, seafood, and cheese is lost to spoilage each year, along with a similar amount of fruit and vegetables and more than $5 billion in pharmaceuticals. While it is easy to tell if a frozen package is thawed when it reaches its destination, cold chain failures are usually less obvious. A package of fish might have been sitting on a sunny loading dock for several hours in transit, for instance. Though re-frozen by the time it reaches the destination, it might already have degraded, or might have a shorter remaining storage life than expected. A medicine intended for a remote village might become less effective or even dangerous if not stored properly. Without in-package monitoring, there’s no easy way to tell that the cold chain was compromised somewhere along the way.
Which is where our third important innovation, sensors, enters the picture. Once a power source is available, combining a temperature sensor with a timing circuit allows the smart label to record its temperature at regular intervals, storing the information in the RFID tag’s memory where it can be read at the destination. Because the label is remotely readable, it can be sealed inside the package, at the same ambient temperature as the contents. Given the thermal history, the recipient can decide whether to accept the shipment without inspecting the contents. A more sophisticated device could generate an electronic alert if it detected an out-of-specification temperature, allowing corrective action before degradation of the package contents occurred.
One commercial example is the Sealed Air Turbo Tag, powered by a battery from Blue Spark. PowerID, spun out from Power Paper in 2007, focuses on tagging and smart packaging applications as well. In addition, Enfucell is collaborating with Finland’s RFID lab to develop tagging and smart packaging applications of RFIDs. This spring the company shared in a grant to Europe’s Ropas consortium, aimed at development of wireless sensors printed on paper.
The basic combination of a battery, a sensor, and an RFID tag could be applied to other types of packages as well. Precision optical and mechanical devices are very sensitive to vibrations; incorporating an accelerometer into the shipping label could show whether a package had been shaken or dropped. With potentially hazardous cargo, smart labels could alert the shipper to possible leaks or to conditions that might rupture the shipping container.
As the key components of smart labels mature, we expect what is now novel — as is often true — will become commonplace. Devices once used for high value shipments could eventually make their way into picnic coolers and boxes of holiday cookies. But for now, printed batteries are helping smart labels take the first steps from concept to commercial reality.
Published: September 26, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials
Forms of zinc and tin oxide have been proposed as an alternative to indium tin oxide (ITO) in the display and PV industry for many years, with mixed commercial success. In the thin-film PV (TFPV) space, alternative TCOs (alt-TCOs) have done well with fluorine tin oxide (FTO) and aluminum zinc oxide (AZO) becoming quite common at this point in time. However, attempts to sell indium zinc oxide (IZO) into the display space have not succeeded to any strong degree.
The motivation for using alt-TCOs is usually that money can be saved on materials, and most often because large amounts of indium can be avoided. This matter has taken on a new urgency in view of recent Chinese industrial and trade policy, which favors controls on exports of indium. The Chinese government has also shut down environmentally unsound indium extraction facilities. The potential opportunities for alt-TCOs seem to have grown as a result, although these TCOs also now have to compete increasingly with next-generation transparent conductors that will almost certainly outperform them given time.
Adding to the fun are new applications for alt-TCOs and the emergence of new kinds of TCOs. One new application that we see as being of considerable importance for these materials is so-called smart windows. Such windows have enjoyed niche status for many years, but may well emerge as a mass market product if the green building movement continues to fulfill it's promise.
Finally, with the help of a semantic stretch, one might consider the use of the metal oxide materials considered in this report in thin-film transistors (TFTs) as part of the opportunity space for alt-TCs. Here one is, in effect, saying that a transparent conducting oxide is also a semiconducting transparent oxide. Taken literally, these statements are simply a contradiction in terms. However, given that these alt-TCOs are neither very conductive nor very semi-conductive, we hope that the reader will forgive our embracing of this contradiction. We should perhaps mention that some of the most interesting new alt-TCOs are emerging in the context of TFTs.
The Joys and Otherwise of Sputtering
While such new applications are certainly the most interesting from a purely intellectual point of view, and we think may also turn out to be the most profitable opportunities for alt-TCOs in the end, they are certainly also the most risky. It also seems likely that they will take quite a while before they generate significant revenues.
Given the extraordinarily difficult business climate that pertains at the present time, it seems that many makers of alt-TCOs will be looking for more immediate and less risky opportunities. The least risky of these opportunities is certainly in the TFPV space, where suppliers of AZO and CIGS can simply expect to see sales rise as CIGS and CdTe continue to experience growing revenues. This application is a low risk opportunity in that all the alt-TCO has to do is follow the TFPV industry onwards and upwards.
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Published: September 26, 2011 Category: OLED Lighting
In the past two years, the OLED lighting business has shifted from being one entirely consumed by R&D to the production of actual products. For now, however, these products are confined to luxury table lamps and chandeliers with price points measured in thousands of dollars and volume sales measured in the thousands of units, if that. Production issues are secondary considerations for such products; from the production standpoint, OLED lighting is currently a cottage industry.
One reason for OLED lighting being so niche-like is that, at today's costs, OLED lights can be no more than playthings for the rich. True, there has been some progress. Two years ago, the one or two OLED luminaires that were on the market were affordable only by billionaires. Today there are more than 30 such luminaires available and they can be purchased even by millionaires. But no one is expecting to see OLED lighting at their local supermarket—or even their local department store—before 2015 or so.
There are some commentators (without any demonstrated history in this market ) who apparently believe that OLED lighting will never get beyond the luxury market. Today, for example, you can buy OLED lighting from a very high-end furniture store such as Roche Bobois and some analysts believe that is where they are going to stay.
NanoMarkets are not in this group of analysts and, more importantly, it seems safe to assume that it is unlikely that firms of the caliber of GE, LG, Osram, Panasonic Philips, Samsung and so on would have gone into the OLED lighting business with luxury luminaires made by craft workers solely in mind. Almost certainly, their assumption is that eventually OLED lighting will reach a point where it is generally affordable and that, along with LEDs and CFLs, OLED lighting will be used widely in general illumination applications.
Certainly, most of the firms that NanoMarkets has talked with as part of its ongoing research into emerging markets in the OLED lighting space have bigger visions of where OLED lighting is headed. Most observers of the OLED lighting scene believe that OLED lighting will present a genuine challenge to more mature forms of lighting by 2015 or so, although much will depend on the ability of the OLED lighting firms to come up with OLED lighting product designs—including the luminaires—that will make this possible, both in terms of design (including form factor) and price point. Even if OLEDs take just a very small share of the global lighting market, we think this technology will ultimately generate billions in new business revenues. At least some of the large firms that have entered this space clearly seem to believe the same thing.
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Published: September 19, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy
The recent announcement that Konarka Technologies, leader in the organic PV (OPV) space, has teamed with the ThyssenKrupp Steel Europe is a potential game changer for OPV. Interest in OPV remains strong; new firms, new capacity and new products. Yet that OPV has not fulfilled its early promise is a conclusion that remains inescapable. It was always understood that OPV would be low efficiency, but this was supposed to be compensated for by low dollars per watt too. But it hasn’t happened.
As a result, NanoMarkets’ expectations of OPV’s future have been less than optimistic. We have gone on record as saying that revenues from OPV could be as much as $56.1 million in 2011 growing to $383.0 million in 2018. These are not terrible numbers and suggest that OPV could probably keep a few moderate sized firms busy. But they aren’t numbers that could justify the amount of money that has been thrown at the OPV space by investors in recent years.
The problem with OPV has always been what to do with it; given its inherent limitations, that is. In the recent past, the best that could be hoped for in terms of early revenues from OPV was a new generation of portable solar battery chargers where OPV’s flexibility would be an advantage and its low efficiency would not be too much of a disadvantage. Beyond that, OPV seemed destined for use in novelties and oddities such as solar umbrellas. The use of OPV in building- integrated PV (BIPV) has always beckoned, in part, because of OPV’s relatively small decline in efficiency in less-than-perfect light conditions.
But “OBIPV,” as it were, has always been stymied by the need for lack of a really good encapsulation technology and NanoMarkets, in its recent forecasts, has not included the possibility of huge revenues flowing to the OPV makers from building-integrated applications. We are not yet ready to completely revise our forecasts for OPV based on Konarka/ThyssenKrupp Steel arrangement, but it certainly gives us cause to re-examine them on the basis that two serious players now say they are developing “steel roof and other construction elements for BIPV.”
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Published: August 02, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials
Inkjet once seemed well positioned to gain revenues, market share and expanded addressable markets as the result of the demise of contact printers in the office. Ultimately, however, it lost much of that market to low-cost laser printers. As a result, the inkjet industry has been pushed into looking for new opportunities. Its most noticeable success has been in providing color printers for the home and small business markets at prices that make these printers almost throwaway items. Far less noticeable has been the rise of industrial inkjet, initially for graphics and, more recently for functional printing. With the home computing sector reaching some level of maturity, functional printing in particular (which remains at a very early stage of its evolution) looks like a potentially profitable future direction for the inkjet industry.
Functional jetting already seems to be a major preoccupation for some makers of inkjet equipment and print heads and service bureau. However, the specific opportunities for ink makers and specialty chemical companies that are inherent in “jetted manufacturing” are not always all that apparent. NanoMarkets believes that these opportunities are obscured by the extreme diversity of applications that fall under the title of “functional inkjet” and the resulting lack of color on just what kinds of inks are needed for these applications. One of the main objectives of this NanoMarkets’ analysis in the functional inkjet ink space, therefore, is to sort through this diversity and to analyze where the revenues will be generated in the functional inkjet inks business over the next eight years.
Here we define “functional printing” to include any kind of additive process that is intended to create things rather than images. As has often been noted, the biggest difference between functional printing and graphics printing is that while graphics printing is intended to produce something that is judged by its aesthetics, functional printing is supposed to produce something that works. In the view of the firms we have talked with in the functional inkjet space, making something is harder than decorating it!
Be that as it may, we believe that the revenue-generating opportunities for ink firms in the functional inkjet space fall into five different classes of printing.
The “New” Printed Electronics and the Ink it Needs
For the most part, this is what most of functional jetting is about at the present time; using industrial inkjet printers to create small devices or small parts of larger devices. Included in this class are applications as simple as printed silver interconnects between panels or devices, all the way through to completely printed computing chips.
This kind of functional inkjet can, in effect, be considered as an extension of a trend that has been around for decades in the form of thick-film printing of circuitry for membrane switches, automotive heaters and printed circuit boards (PCBs). It has also been the mainstay of photovoltaics; the silver grids that distribute the electricity from conventional (i.e., crystalline silicon) solar panels are printed using thick film techniques. Broadly, these otherwise disparate applications share the fact that they are created using screen printing and that they involve a fairly low level of patterning compared to what is the norm in the semiconductor industry.
The undoubted success of the thick-film type of functional printing helped fuel the discussions and activities of a few years ago around of the concept of “printed electronics” (PE). PE was a kind of functional printing that supposed to lead to printed devices that were much more complex/smaller than what thick-film technology was (and is) capable of. The hope of PE in general was that using printing instead of the classical fabrication technologies of the semiconductor industry would reduce the costs of manufacturing a wide range of devices including displays, sensors, PV panels, batteries, RFID chips, etc.
The argument behind this hope was that (1) printing is additive, supposedly lowering the operational and materials costs of fabrication and (2) printing machinery is, generally speaking, lower cost than classical vapor deposition and related patterning equipment used in the semiconductor industry. Although many kinds of printing were suggested or actually utilized as part of the PE paradigm, inkjet—because of its ability to finely pattern—has been frequently cited as the printing technology of choice for PE.
As it turned out, things did not go the way that PE’s advocates hoped. There were many reasons for this. There were certainly macroeconomic and other exogenous factors that have little direct relevance to the markets and ink-related matters. For one thing the PE of a few years ago seemed to seriously overreach in terms of applications. While the thick film revolution in its early days was firmly grounded in the huge consumer demand for new and better appliances and automobiles of the 1970s, PE seemed to be chasing of applications—such as flexible displays and RFID tags—for which there was little pent-up demand and whose timetable for adoption was very speculative. The world’s financial pains of the last few years have not helped much either.
However, there were more fundamental reasons why the original PE did not take off. Printing of functioning electronic devices turned out to be much harder to do than most of the people involved thought would be the case. Firms leaped into the business of printing display backplanes or PV panels and found that their early timetables proved unrealistic. Some of the early firms went forward with their general business plans but quietly started to use more conventional deposition and patterning equipment with the promise that they would eventually use printing as they had already suggested. Where inkjet printing was specifically cited as part of a manufacturing strategy this sometimes proved problematic because of scaling to higher speeds or the availability of inks.
Still “printed electronics” in the form described above seems to be seeing something of revival in the past two years or so, but the “new” PE is of a more pragmatic kind than the older type of PE that we described above. The firms and individuals in this space now seem to have much more modest expectations. Instead of being satisfied with nothing less than the printing of a complete RFID tag, they are now much more likely to be content with successfully (successful in both the economic and technical senses) printing just the antenna. We note also that representatives of PE firms are now appearing at conferences that are primarily intended for the traditional thick-film industry, suggesting that the new PE thinking is that it might make money by improving on existing business models rather than by creating an entirely brave new world of printing electronics.
Inkjet’s role in all of this has yet to be determined. From a positive perspective, we note that most of the firms that we spoke with in the inkjet industry seemed to think that the new PE would be the market sector that would generate the largest revenues for functional inkjet in the near term future. We also note that inkjet is very well established as an R&D tool in printed electronics, in part because, as a maskless technology, it is very well suited to making just a few devices.
Assuming that the new PE proves to have “legs” the primary opportunity that it seems it will create will be for conductive inks—especially silver inks—but semiconducting and dielectric inks are also an important part of this story going forward. Printing silicon has been talked about and researched for a decade and appears to be on its way to attainment, but only slowly.
Inks and Jetted Bio-devices: From Test Strips to Organ Printing
The use of functional inkjet for creating bio-devices seems to have emerged not so much from a jetting industry push, but more as the end-user community discovered that inkjet was capable of depositing small quantities of delicate materials. Indeed, one major functional inkjet provider has reported that as the first overenthusiastic wave of the PE “revolution” retreated a few years ago, it derived some sales comfort from what seems to have been something of a surprise—biomedical markets.
This segment of the market is fairly diverse in terms of both applications and in terms of inks. The applications that are usually cited as near-term ones are diabetic test strips and DNA arrays. These are already very high volume products, with good prospects for the future based on current health and demographic trends. Inkjet is already used for both these products, although there seems to be some disagreement about the degree to which it is used to create diabetic test strips.
The use of inkjet is also expected to expand well beyond test strips and arrays. Jetted biosensors have been created in the lab for quite some time, so it seems that this market could expand quite soon. It is also very much in tune with larger trends in medicine, national security and environmental monitoring. However, there seems to be considerable enthusiasm for the use of inkjet in regenerative medicine; particularly in organ and skin printing. While no one really expects this to be common in the near future, there seems to be a sense in the inkjet community that regenerative medicine will create significant revenues for inkjet.
This raises the question of what materials can be made profitably into jetted bio-inks. The answer seems to be that most can be. At various time times inks have been made out of a wide range or organic molecules (including DNA), proteins, cells, etc., although primarily in a research context. We also note that this application sector can overlap in terms of inks with the PE sector. For example, silver inks may well be used in sensors of various kinds. It also seems likely to us that for the regenerative medicine applications that some see as being jetted in the future a whole range of new inks will have to be developed.
Inks for printing on Non-Standard Substrates: Tiles, Textiles and Beyond
Printing on non-standard substrates does not quite seem to fit the usual definitions of functional printing. This is because nothing is specified about function as such, leaving open the possibility that inkjet will be used to decorate rather than to add/increase functionality.
And this is precisely the case. One opportunity that is mentioned frequently in this category is that of ceramic inks, that is inks that can coat ceramic substrates (primarily tiles) with color. This is not an easy thing to do because ceramics are so porous, so special inks are needed. The other non-standard substrate that receives significant attention in the inkjet community is fabric/textile.
In both cases, the motivation for printing onto these substrates is to create small runs of decorated substrates to respond to the consumer need for a wide range of colors and styles in tiles, fabrics and clothing and also to ensure that a specific color and pattern not be too widely distributed. Everyone wants to be reasonably certain that his or her kitchen will look significantly different from that of friends and relatives! The main reason why inkjet is seen as having an opportunity here lies in inkjet’s ability to create products in small numbers, because it is maskless.
A variety of specialized inks have been developed for these applications. Pigments used for printing onto ceramic tiles are usually large particle size, stable inorganic powders that must be able to withstand a high-temperature firing step (up to 1300°C) required to fuse the powder into the molten surface of the ceramic tile. There are even specialized inkjet printers for ceramic printing, although these seem to use sol-gel inks rather than inorganic pigmented inks. Meanwhile, some observers believe that inkjet technology has the potential to replace existing finishing and coating technologies and create new materials for the technical textiles sector. Another use for functional inkjet in the textile sector is as tool for smart textiles to put into place the materials that enable the textile to respond to mechanical, thermal, chemical, electrical or magnetic stimuli.
Inks for 3D Printing: New Life for Manufacturing
“3D printing” refers to creating a one-off (or limited volume) product, by building up the product one layer at a time. This technique has been available for some time and has mostly been used for prototyping in a wide variety of industries. However, the technique is now being expanded to the manufacture of products that are actually sold on the market.
This trend has led to 3D printing being heralded as a new form of manufacturing that might reindustrialize the developed world, create manufacturing industries in the less developed world and create an entirely new form of manufacturing environment in which a far greater variety of products than now can be highly customized, either at the factory itself, or by the end user.
Because 3D printing can be used for so many applications, the materials used for this kind of functional printing are very diverse. In addition, we note that not all 3D printers are inkjet printers in a conventional sense. There are specialist 3D printers which are inkjet-like in that they have nozzles but for large scale modeling these may enable large amounts of material to be deposited; quite the opposite to standard inkjet.
On the other hand, most 3D printing is done with more standard industrial inkjet machines and alternative approaches are available. In one method—sometimes called the MIT method—the layers are built up starting with powders, but these powders are formed into a solid layer using liquid binders which are deposited with inkjet. An additional resin may also be used to give the finished product more durability. This approach is fast and relatively low cost, but tends to produce rough looking objects and, given the number of materials, is fairly expensive.
Another approach, which is superior in a number of ways, is polyjet printing. In this process, as the name suggests, the printers have two or more jetting heads. Typically, one builds the model, while the other jets the support fluids. The support material is a gel-like substance, which is easily washed away. The final model is said to have a smooth finish and be ready for sanding, painting, drilling, or tapping.
Inkjet and Fluid Micro-dispensing: Not Quite Printing
In essence, functional inkjet machines are devices that can accurately deliver small quantities of fluid without much wastage. This fact can be exploited by using inkjet as a dispensing tool and a market for doing just that has emerged. Typically, the use of functional inkjet for micro-dispensing applications is not just to place small amounts of material, but also where they must be dispensed in the form of fine structures such as micro-lines, micro-dots, and three-dimensional structures. Although micro-dispensing isn’t quite printing, this patterning aspect makes the line between microdispensing and printing quite small.
Using inkjet for micro-dispensing has a number of advantages and, of course, which of these advantages matters depends on the particular application. However, in general, where inkjet shines in this regard is that it is a non-contact printing method (and hence can dispense onto delicate substrates) and it has the ability to cover large areas. Additionally, it is an on-demand process and conducive for printing multi-layer devices.
The fluids for which functional inkjet has been used to date include a variety of biological materials along with some non-biological materials such as solders and adhesives. Within the biological sphere, inkjet is considered to be a good microdispensing technology for reagents, enzymes and other fluids that are deposited on biological substrates. Microdispensing using inkjet has been demonstrated with a wide range of viscosity and rheological properties.
Functional Fluid Making Opportunities for Inkjet
The five areas outlined above will present considerable opportunities for materials firms and ink makers to produce fluids suitable for jetting. None of the five areas are new. Nonetheless, NanoMarkets believes that functional jetting is about see a resurgence for a number of reasons.
One of the most important of these reasons is that industrial inkjet machines have now reached a speed where they can be deployed for serious manufacturing applications, although it is important to note that we are talking about the larger and more expensive machines here. Conversely, smaller and lower-cost machines, priced at well under $10,000 may open up the market to an entirely new kind of manufacturing—desktop manufacturing—that could parallel the success of the desktop publishing revolution of a couple of decades ago.
We also note that this isn’t the only important trend with which the process of functional inkjet may be aligned. For example, within the scope of functional jetting comes a broad range of biomedical applications, all of which make small contributions to the urgent need to improve healthcare. Also, some marketing experts see the need for industry and commerce to offer more customized products in the sophisticated markets of the developed world. Here again, functional inkjet can be of help.
We believe that there is plenty of room for ink and materials firms to tap into these opportunities. Eventually, these firms will start to offer off-the-shelf inks for functional inkjet, although this opportunity still seems to be one that will not produce significant revenue for quite some time to come; it will have to await the standardization of applications, which seems a long way off. For the time being, we think that most opportunities for materials are going to require some customizing for specific applications or even specific customers. Nonetheless, we have little doubt that these are real opportunities.
Published: July 02, 2011 Category: Renewable Energy
Building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) is a new and dynamic market, with complex sub-markets, and very different market entities pulling diverse BIPV technologies into use. As an extension of the global photovoltaics (PV) market, both large established PV module suppliers as well as small niche architectural firms are trying to push BIPV into the market. Historically, the volumes sold of BIPV products—relative to PV products as a whole—have been low due to both a lack of demand and a lack of dedicated products for the building industry. However, NanoMarkets believes that the demand for BIPV would have been greater had dedicated products been more widely available.
As additional dedicated BIPV products are released to the market, we think that the key decision-makers are discovering new ways to add value to buildings. Ultimately, for BIPV to yield solid business opportunities, architects, builders, and roofers all must work with proven solutions, and proven BIPV technologies provide another way to win new customers/clients. Grid-connected BIPV is not just for "enthusiast" or "Green" people anymore, and "bankable" BIPV can now provide an attractive return-on-investment (ROI) for many buildings in many locations. Depending upon incentives and lease-back financing schemes, BIPV can potentially reduce the total costs of constructing homes and commercial buildings, and may also add significant value to building retrofits.
The combination of dedicated and bankable BIPV products with proper financing can open up new addressable markets. From the supply perspective, BIPV offers new revenue-streams for PV panel suppliers, and new differentiation in the market-space for architects, builders, and roofers.
BIPV Market Drivers
Aesthetics: The first generation of BIPV systems was primarily architectural in nature. It consisted of attempts to make the PV panels more unobtrusive, by choosing thinner panels and installing them parallel to the roof surface or even hidden on a flat roof. In addition to helping PV appeal to a broader audience, the first generation of BIPV also was intended to meet the requirements of certain local governments, which have either mandated BIPV or required that PV panels be hidden from view, despite a lack of dedicated products designed to achieve these requirements.
These first-generation BIPV systems are not our primary concern in this report. Rather, we are more interested in BIPV products as opposed to BIPV design. The BIPV products we have in mind here are those that integrate smoothly with building surfaces. At a minimum, they are laminated on roofing or wall materials; more specialized products also serve as roofing or cladding themselves or even as skylights or other building features. Dedicated BIPV products, properly installed, simply look better to most observers than BAPV, and so provide a lasting value.
Costs: Inevitably, the cost of a BIPV system will be higher than a standard PV panel of a similar performance. Due to the dedicated design of second-generation BIPV systems, and the distinctly different sub-markets for roofs, windows, and sidewalls in buildings, any given BIPV product will see lower volumes compared to mainstream "utility panels" and will thus not enjoy the same economies of scale. However, with demand expected to steadily increase over the next eight years, NanoMarkets expects that BIPV products can be made on dedicated production lines and so will see steady reductions in manufacturing costs.
The ultimate goal for BIPV systems is that they can lower the total costs of construction of a BIPV-enabled building, since the cost of using BIPV materials will be lower than using conventional building materials in conjunction with conventional PV systems. However, for the BIPV market to establish itself what we are going to need to see in the next few years, is proof that this kind of economics can be established for BIPV. And this is where the opportunities lie. If costs for BIPV begin to reach the point where BIPV products can be positioned as part of a standard portfolio of high-end building materials then the demand is expected to explode.
Since cost remains a significant part of the demand equation, the dynamics of pricing must be considered. NanoMarkets considers that BIPV suppliers will target certain price-points in reference to existing high-end building materials and options. In such a scenario, the demand is not particularly "elastic" with price, but instead should spike up once threshold levels are achieved.
Three Approaches to Building Integration: Rigid, Flexible, Transparent
From a product perspective, NanoMarkets believes that the BIPV market fits best into three broad categories, based on the function that the BIPV products serve in the building envelope. These categories are (1) rigid BIPV tiles and panels, (2) flexible BIPV products and laminates, and (3) transparent or semi-transparent BIPV glass products. Each of these product categories are at a different level of technological maturity and also have significantly different addressable markets.
Rigid products: Rigid BIPV products generally rely upon crystalline silicon (c-Si) or multi-crystalline silicon (mc-Si) wafers as the cells from which to build customized building cladding structures. The silicon wafers required may be obtained from any supplier, and the module manufacturing required may not be significantly different from that needed to create conventional PV panels, which are overwhelmingly rigid.
However, the aesthetic and functional and regulatory requirements of BIPV create new opportunities for product differentiation compared to mainstream PV panels. Consequently, NanoMarkets believes that there are distinct opportunities in this space that BIPV can tap into in a manner not available to conventional PV panels.
Rigid BIPV products that are available or planned include tiles that are designed to interlace with conventional roofing tiles or cladding materials; larger tiles that serve as entire roof portions or wall portions themselves; and thin, flush-mounted panels that overlay conventional roofing or siding but are specifically designed for flush mounting on buildings.
Flexible products: Flexible PV laminates are a newer direction for BIPV than the rigid systems described above. Besides flexible PV laminates, which are designed to be glued onto existing building materials such as metal roofing, there are also products like flexible shingles that interlace with conventional asphalt shingles. Also coming soon are flexible building materials with PV cells built or deposited directly onto them. These products aim to integrate the PV panels more completely with building materials than today's laminates that are applied in a separate installation.
The flexible product segment of the BIPV market clearly involves novel products and as such represents a riskier business proposition than the rigid BIPV products described above. They are also reliant on using newer materials platforms; primarily thin-film and organic PV, since these materials are flexible and conventional c-Si PV is not. It is still an open question as to which of the several thin-film/organic approaches to PV is best suited to flexible PV.
Transparent: BIPV glass products can generally be considered as a sub-class of "Smart Windows," specifically similar to electrochromic windows in that active electronics are involved in both functional types. In many cases, transparent BIPV based on thin-film PV technology is a way of using glazing to make PV cells and modules into decorative building features. Several companies have announced plans to integrate semi-transparent thin-film absorber materials with transparent conductors to compete directly with electrochromic glass windows. Both amorphous-silicon and CIGS thin-films have been explored as the PV absorber material.
The initial markets for BIPV glass are in skylights, facades, curtain walls, and shade structures such as canopies and it can often be easily built to custom dimensions and shapes, either by adjusting the number and spacing of crystalline silicon cells or by cutting thin-film PV panels to size. The possibility of windows that are also PV panels should start being realized, but the manufacturing platforms necessary to produce glass of this kind in high volumes still seems quite far off. Initial BIPV glass windows will be created on pilot lines with limited yields and profitability.
Published: July 02, 2011 Category:
Thin-film batteries can be defined in a number of ways. For the purposes of this article, we will use the term “thin-film batteries” in the loosest and most literal sense to describe any battery that is thin. Thin, in this case, refers to length scales on the order of microns. By and large, this will be used to imply a battery that is all solid state in nature and is deposited by thin-film manufacturing techniques. We make this distinction to differentiate thin batteries from printable batteries, which are covered as their own topic in a separate report published by NanoMarkets, though there are certainly devices in which the distinction begins to blur. And, of course, both thin-film and printable batteries are very different in design and manufacture from the more usual kinds of small batteries found in stores.
We note that there is also another definition of thin-film batteries that is considerably more specific, although fairly frequently used. This is the definition of thin-film batteries that refers specifically to the thin-film rechargeable lithium batteries that were developed by Dr. John Bates and his team of scientists and engineers after more than a decade of research at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). In the view of some of the firms and individuals active in the thin-film battery space, and to whom we have spoken, only technologies based on ORNL’s design and chemistries are truly thin film.
The New “Smartness” as a Driver for the Thin-Film Battery Market
The emphasis on such niceties is in some ways indicative of the way things used to be in the thin-film battery business. NanoMarkets has been covering the thin-film battery market for five years now and has often indicated a sense of this technology being one that is in search of applications. In such circumstances, it is no surprise that the thin-film battery industry dwelt on issues such as definitions.
The time when thin-film batteries can be characterized as a technology desperately seeking something to do has not yet passed. But the fact that some of the firms in this space (Cymbet, IPS and Solicore) have received significant investments in the recent past seems to indicate that things are changing. NanoMarkets believes that this “something” is the growing mega-trend towards “smartness,” that is, the embedding of computer chips and sensors in everyday (and not so everyday) objects.
We speak of smart grids, smart phone, smart appliances, smartcards, smart packaging, and smart medical devices. These smart devices are appearing now and they all add additional—and presumably more useful functionality to earlier, dumber versions of the same device. While such trends have been talked about for a while, they actually seem to be appearing in the real world at the present time.
There is an increasing use of smartcards, particularly for a stored-value card in public transportation systems. Distributed and inexpensive sensor networks make it possible to monitor complex systems, such as traffic patterns or the health of a remote oil or gas pipeline, with as much fidelity as desired. These sensors can report wirelessly in real time. Radio frequency identification (RFID) tags track the location and contents of inventory, also in real time.
The new “smart world” can be powered in a number of different ways. In some cases, completely conventional batteries can be used. But in many cases; this is prevented by an inappropriate form factor, weight, or by lack of flexibility; this is the case with powered smartcards, for example. In some cases, these devices may be powered to some extent by an energy harvesting approach or by an inductive field generated by some kind of reader system, but battery power installed in the electronic device itself usually enables such devices to provide a much higher level of functionality. For example, battery-powered smartcards can have their own displays for one-time password security or to print the balance of the stored value—something that would be hard to achieve any other way.
The Business Case for Thin-Film Batteries
This is a wave that thin-film battery firms must catch, if they are finally to generate money for their shareholders. They cannot hope to make a success by simply improving their performance, since such an approach misses out on the crucial demand-side factor. In addition, while some thin battery makers have attempted to create their own markets by inventing applications for their batteries—cosmetic patches for example—this is not an especially easy thing to do, especially for a small company. And while thin-film batteries are solid-state batteries and hence safer than conventional batteries, the battery safety issue seems less of a selling point than it was a few years ago, after there had been several well-publicized incidents of exploding batteries.
To finally make money in the thin-film battery space, NanoMarkets believes that suppliers of these products will have to demonstrate that (1) their battery technology can enable new smart applications; that is, these applications will be either impossible or impractical without such batteries and/or (2) reduce the total cost of ownership of the powered device.
While these value propositions can be brought to bear on many different areas in the new world of smart technology, large sensor networks provide a good illustration of how they can be applied.
Consider the case of a sensor network that monitors the health and activity of a natural gas pipeline. The pipeline snakes through a remote location for hundreds of miles. Could these sensors be powered with conventional batteries? Possibly. But this raises the issue of the life of the battery being shorter than the life of the pipeline, so that there is the prospect of replacing hundreds or thousands of batteries along the length of the pipeline; a prohibitively expensive proposition. A thin-film battery combined with an energy scavenging device can last for years and therefore significantly reduce the total cost of ownership of the sensor device, when the cost of battery replacement is eliminated.
Could energy scavenging devices be used on their own in such cases? Again, possibly. But if real-time data is required, this solution will not work as there may not be sufficient energy available at all times. In this sense, the thin-film battery combined with an energy harvesting device is an enabling technology for a smart system that might not be able to be effectively powered any other way.
The Cost Issue: The Elephant in the Room
While the smart “revolution” that is beginning to take shape is what is going to make profitable the efforts of the thin-film battery industry over the past few years, it won’t show the cost-related “elephant in the room” the exit. That is, thin-film batteries are, for the most part, lithium batteries that are a lot more expensive than regular batteries. This is partly because manufacturing of thin-film batteries is still in very small quantities, but also because thin-film battery technologies are at a relatively early stage of development.
Some firms have accepted that and gone for very specialized applications where cost isn’t really an issue. Medical implants need small, thin batteries and this is an obvious market for thin-film battery makers to chase after. Other thin-film battery firms are looking at cost reduction strategies at the factory level. For example, Solicore has coatable electrolytes.
Such developments are ongoing and may ultimately enable some thin-film makers to break into the market segments currently controlled by standard lithium-ion batteries. This market is vast, and includes batteries for laptops, cell phones, and other assorted pieces of consumer electronics. And as the technology is introduced into plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries will continue to sell in high volumes.
But thin-film batteries attacking these mainstream markets do not seem likely to emerge any time soon. Thin-film battery manufacturers are not targeting these mainstream applications. Traditional lithium-ion batteries have so many engineering hours behind their development, and are made in such bulk, that a thin-film battery will have a difficult time competing.
Beating standard lithium-ion batteries is not something that thin-film batteries are about right now. This may (or may not) come in time. For now, NanoMarkets believes that the opportunity that thin-film battery makers will be able to tap into, will be the “new smartness.” In the past year, we believe the buzz about smartness has finally begun to turn into action.
Published: May 18, 2011 Category: OLED Lighting
The whole of Asia must be considered a major opportunity area for the OLED lighting business. Most of the countries in Asia are experiencing high economic growth and their manufacturing sectors are—generally speaking—moving to increasing levels of technological sophistication, both in terms of the products they supply and the kinds of manufacturing technology they deploy:
The economic trends in Asia imply both expanding markets for OLED lighting in the form of larger middle classes that may be exactly the kind of consumers who buy the products of which the early wave of OLED lighting may consist. All of the fast-growing economies in Asia have enjoyed vibrant construction markets, a very positive sign for the future of OLED lighting. However, in many countries it remains to be seen for how long many of these property booms are sustainable.
Increased sophistication of the semiconductor industry in non-Japan Asia implies that OLED lighting could find a successful manufacturing home in Asia as it begins to reach volume production. China is now focusing on building up its facilities to manufacture much more sophisticated products than in the recent past and other countries—Indonesia and Vietnam—are also anxious to develop new semiconductor industries. Meanwhile, Japan is quietly building a competent and comprehensive OLED lighting industry.
Each country, of course, has its own demographics, its own opportunities and different timeframes for realizing those opportunities, as well as particularities in terms of market needs and the regulations impacting the OLED lighting market. Each country also has a different story with regard to the size and sophistication of its indigenous OLED manufacturing sector and how that sector is likely to evolve going forward.
Japan
Japanese consumer response to the arrival of LEDs also seems to have been relatively enthusiastic with one Japanese newspaper article talking about them "selling like hot cakes" and going on to talk about "the new generation of light bulbs . . . quickly empt[ying] store shelves." This openness to new SSL lighting technology would also seem to bode well for OLED lighting as it comes onto the market in Japan.
Japan is usually considered to be a market of early adopters, meaning that consumers in this country tend to adopt and legitimize new technologies before much of the rest of the world does. Most electronics products are released in Japan very early in their market cycle and we expect this factor to apply to OLED lighting. As an example of the kind of pioneering direction that OLED lighting might take in Japan, we cite the activities of Kenwood, the home and automotive electronics company that has demonstrated an ultra-thin stereo speaker that is also an OLED white-light panel.
However, we note that the surge in demand for LED lights in Japan has mostly been in response to deep price cuts and the first wave of OLED lights in Japan are likely to be very expensive items. In addition, the uptake of LED lighting has been specifically for LED bulbs and no equivalent OLED product yet exists. Given this, the parallels between OLED and LED lighting can be stretched too far.
NanoMarkets believes that the power consumption issue driving OLED lighting markets in Japan is of special importance in Japan, which imports more than 80 percent of its energy. We think this will be one of the key "triggers" in the Japanese OLED lighting space, the other one being the enthusiasm with which Japanese consumers adopt new technology, especially electronics technology. Perhaps the most important regulations relating to the products covered in this report are those emanating from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which require the ceasing of production and sale of incandescent bulbs by 2012 in Japan.
Many of the major light bulb manufacturing firms (and even a few retailers) in Japan have already abandoned the incandescent bulb and the fact that these organizations have been quite proactive in this space may have helped shaped the enthusiasm for LED lighting in Japan and will also impact the development of OLED lighting in a positive way. LED lighting is also mentioned specifically as an item preferred in government purchases as part of Japanese "green purchasing" regulations and these regulations may well be extended to OLED lighting in time.
The short-term impact on OLED lighting of the recent disasters in Japan does not seem to be all that great; for the most part, firms producing OLED products in Japan have been minimally affected by the earthquake and tsunami. However, we believe that the events of early 2011 will leave a longer-term mark on the OLED lighting industry in Japan and that this mark will largely be positive. One factor will be that the energy efficiency and renewable energy memes are likely to become more diffused in Japanese society as a result of the inevitable anti-nuclear sentiments that are likely to emerge in Japan. In addition, with almost 50,000 buildings destroyed by the tsunami and earthquake there may be a construction boomlet in the country that could result in a need for next-generation lighting systems.
As a nation, Japan has emerged as perhaps the leading center of OLED lighting development and manufacturing in the world, with both giant multinationals and start-ups involved in its efforts. Among the major Japanese firms that are directly involved in the manufacture of OLED lighting are Konica Minolta, Mitsubishi, NEC, Panasonic, Pioneer, Rohm, Showa Denko, Sumitomo and Toppan Printing.
China
The Chinese market for OLED lighting could not be more different to the Japanese market. The addressable market as measured by the number of homes is huge; there are 385 million households in China. However, despite the surge in standards of living in China in the past ten years, per capita purchasing power in China remains very low; around 18 percent of per capita purchasing power in Japan. This means that as a whole, the Chinese population is not in a position to rush out and buy the latest high-tech lighting innovations, including OLED lighting.
At the present time, OLED lighting markets in China, to the extent that they exist at all, consist of purchases of high-value designer lighting for prestige buildings such as one finds in a few cities—most noticeably Shanghai, and perhaps some purchases by the urban wealthy. And those in the OLED lighting business who want to model their future success on the LED industry in China should note that while the output of the Chinese LED industry at the present time is enormous, a significant proportion of them go into decorative mirrors, jewelry and other such items. This may also represent a potential target market for OLED lighting in China. We note that OLED lighting and mirrors have already been created as prototypes in other parts of the world.
Beijing Visionox appears to be the one prominent Chinese OLED company to be emphasizing OLED lighting products at the present time, although there are perhaps 20 more OLED producers currently active in China. However, NanoMarkets expects to see considerable efforts from the Chinese government to develop high-tech industries in China in the immediate future and this determination may well help grow the domestic OLED industry in China. The need for more domestic technology development to serve Chinese consumers rather than exports is key to the latest—and all-important—Chinese five-year plan.
China does not yet seem to have a fully developed policy for phasing out incandescent lighting, which is perhaps a little surprising. However, there have been major CFL promotional programs initiated in China, beginning in 2007. And the Chinese government has also introduced measures to encourage public institutions to buy efficient lighting. There are also local government incentives being offered to reduce the use of incandescent bulbs.
Korea
The evolution of Korean high-technology industries is characterized by (1) a high degree of coordination by the central government at all levels of the supply chain and (2) a desire to leapfrog other nations by opting for the "latest and greatest" technology.
The Korean government has been sponsoring the advancement of SSL since the mid-1990s. Public programs boosting the LED business in Korea include the LED Lighting 15/30 Project, which aims to replace 30 percent of lighting devices in Korea with LED lighting by 2015. NanoMarkets strongly believes that this kind of program will come into existence in Korea to support OLED lighting too. Also, much like Japan, Korea imports more than 80 percent of its energy, so energy efficiency could be an important trigger issue for the development of OLED lighting in this country. We also note that the Korean government is investing 30 billion won (US$26.8 million) in a fourth-generation in-line deposit system manufacturing process for white OLEDs.
The Korean industrial policy has not always been successful. However, in the display space, the two leading Korean display firms have leapt to prominence in a very short space of time. These firms—LG and Samsung—are also already involved in the OLED lighting space. LG's OLED activities were significantly strengthened at the end of 2009, when LG acquired Kodak's OLED business. Recently, Samsung started to develop OLED lighting modules and has already shown prototype panels that it claimed were built on existing PMOLED production lines.
Taiwan
Taiwan is a powerhouse in both the LED and OLED display industry, which sets this country up ultimately to be a force to be reckoned with in the OLED lighting space. By 2012, incandescent bulbs are expected to disappear completely from the shelves of Taiwanese retailers, opening up the way for more solid-state lighting solutions including OLED lighting.
The Taiwanese OLED industry, although very well established, seems to have gotten into the OLED lighting business relatively late. Before 2010 there was very little activity in this space. In the past year to 18 months, however, AU Optronics has gone into this space and there have also been OLED lighting-related announcements from Taiwanese researchers related to improving the CRI for OLED lighting. We believe that Taiwanese OLED display panel makers should not find much difficulty in the transition into OLED lighting because of their wide experience and expertise in OLED technology.
Opportunities for International Business in the OLED Lighting Space
OLED lighting is likely to develop in Asia under the powerful influence of national industrial policies that strongly favor domestic suppliers for domestic markets:
This is especially obvious in the case of China, whose current five-year plan is specifically intended to promote high-tech industries in China, with OLED lighting products almost certainly considered as one of the industries likely to receive support in this way.
In Korea a focus on specifically Korean standards in high-technology industries in the past has tended to make it difficult for foreign suppliers to enter this market. There are no specifically Korean standards for OLED lighting at the present time. However, Korean Standards (KS) have been developed for LEDs and, once again, this may be indicative of the directions that standardization of OLED lighting finally takes. There is a plan to make the Korean KS standard for LEDs part of the IEC process of international standardization for LEDs.
Finally, we note that the luminaire industry in any country is strongly dependent on local tastes and so tends to favor domestic suppliers, or at least suppliers with a domestic presence.
Materials, Equipment and Licensing: More Open Borders
Where such barriers to entry appear to be less important is where materials' licensing arrangements or equipment is involved. Here, the market seems to be much more open and opportunities easier to capitalize on. It is true that some local governments in China have provided support for companies that produce equipment in their localities, but generally speaking, OLED lighting firms buy their equipment from whoever has the best equipment at the best prices:
In recent news a Korean OLED plant that was about to go on stream, has had to delay because of shipping delays by a Japanese equipment company impacted by the consequences earthquake and tsunami in that country.
Universal Display in the U.S. has signed a technology and licensing agreement with Moser Baer for OLED lighting panels. Universal Display will provide Moser Baer with OLED materials and technology assistance. This follows the two companies' joint project to design and build a white OLED lighting manufacturing facility in the U.S. This project was awarded $8.3 million from the U.S. DOE (total cost will be around $20 million)—and the first pilot line is scheduled to be online during 2011.
UDC has been selling its materials to multiple Asian companies in the OLED displays and lighting space. Among the firms to which UDC supplies OLED materials are NEC Lighting, Panasonic, Showa Denko and Sun Fine Chem.
Opportunities for Crossborder Alliances in OLED Lighting
In addition, formal crossborder alliances impacting the OLED lighting space are not uncommon and may become more common in the future. Perhaps the most important one at the present time is the alliance between GE in the U.S. and Konica Minolta in Japan. GE is one of the so-called "big three" lighting companies and is aggressively pursuing R2R OLED lighting manufacture. GE's relationship with Konica Minolta has the goal of bringing OLED lighting products to market.
The power of brands and design: Finally, it is worth noting the power of brands in this space. Some of the most important international consumer electronics brands are moving into the OLED lighting space and this will help them gain market share in the OLED lighting market worldwide. Many of these brands bring with them established marketing channels primarily for consumer electronics products (rather than lighting products).
Yet another direction for international cooperation is in design. While U.S. firms have long made use of European industrial designers, the novelty of OLED lighting may open up new possibilities. Thus, KM has hired Mexican design studio Agent to produce two concept lights.
Taiwan/China: For cultural reasons, if for no other, Taiwanese LED manufacturers have built ties to LED manufacturers in China, where they can capitalize on the low cost of Chinese labor and Chinese government subsidies.
That said, we note that Taiwanese-Chinese collaboration in the advanced lighting space may go beyond simple manufacturing arrangements. For example, Taiwan's ITRI and the Beijing National Electric Light Source Quality Supervision and Inspection Center have signed a mutual agreement for cross testing of LED products. Under the agreement, LED products tested by ITRI can be exported to China. Such arrangements may not survive the current nationalism inherent in Chinese technology policy. There again, if such testing arrangements cut both ways, pragmatism might dictate the survival of such arrangements.
Published: May 10, 2011 Category: Renewable Energy
While it was always understood that OPV would be tricky to encapsulate if its flexibility was to be preserved this has proved a high-cost exercise as well.
And functional printing, which was supposed to lead to low-cost electronics and PV of all kinds has proved to be a useful tool, rather than the harbinger of a manufacturing revolution.
Published: May 02, 2011 Category: Renewable Energy
Although early proponents of dye-sensitized cells (DSC) dreamed of a future in which DSC would compete primarily on cost, it now seems that this future is unlikely to come about. As far as we can tell, First Solar is today's cost leader in the PV space and the company's CdTe panels also perform better than DSC. Since the end of the silicon shortage, crystalline-silicon PV costs have fallen considerably and may even eventually approach the inorganic thin films in terms of cost.
Published: April 11, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy
The market for transparent conductors sold into the photovoltaics (PV) sector for electrodes is currently made up of transparent conducting oxides (TCOs), including indium tin oxide (ITO). PV, however, is the first major high-performance application for transparent conductors to largely shake its dependence on ITO in favor of less-costly TCOs, mainly tin oxide- and zinc oxide-based materials. This places the PV industry in the somewhat comfortable position of having relatively few cost incentives for making changes to the transparent conductors used; the status quo—TCOs—are already cheap.
However, this should not be taken to mean that there is no incentive for PV manufacturers to switch to other transparent conductive materials, or even that there is never a cost incentive to do so. Indeed, while non-ITO TCOs are cheap from a materials point of view, the processes used to form coatings with them are certainly not cheap. Sputtering equipment and other similar vacuum deposition equipment is expensive, and the energy required to achieve the deposition conditions is certainly costly as well.
Thus, the next major shift in transparent conductor usage will be toward materials that can be deposited by cheaper methods—printing and coating, although obviously PV manufacturers will not pay heavy premiums for materials that can be processed in this way.
Opportunities for ITO Firms—Are There Any?
ITO has been displaced by tin oxide and zinc oxide to a large degree in the PV industry, but there are still significant amounts of ITO used. NanoMarkets believes ITO will continue to see a declining penetration over the next eight years. But because the PV sector itself is growing, the revenues that ITO suppliers will derive from the PV sector will continue to grow as will the volumes of the material shipped into the sector.
The reasons for this thinking are: (1) ITO can still claim to offer superior transparency compared to other TCOs, and (2) because of the development of market segments that favor “premium” products. One good example of where ITO is likely to be used is in BIPV glass. BIPV is close to being a luxury product and is one where transparency is important for obvious reasons. In addition, in BIPV glass, the cost is dominated by the glass itself so the cost of ITO is not such a big deal.
NanoMarkets believes that the PV technologies that will use the most ITO will be OPV and DSC. This is despite the wide perception that these technologies will be made or broken primarily by the cost points that they can achieve. In fact, OPV and DSC look less and less like they will be able to offer major cost improvements and their commercial success is now completely dependent on their ability to exploit their unique characteristics—primarily transparency and flexibility. Transparency gives OPV/DSC an opportunity in the BIPV glass space and we have already noted why ITO might claim that market. But we also noted that OPV/DSC no longer has cost as part of its stated unique selling proposition, so at least ITO is not going to be ruled out immediately on cost grounds.
Opportunities for Other TCO Firms in the PV Space
NanoMarkets believes that non-ITO TCO firms catering to the PV sector will see their volume shipments and revenues grow over the next eight years. This is because substitution of ITO with other, less expensive, TCOs remains—and it will continue to throughout the forecast period—a major trend for transparent conductors in the PV industry.
And while other transparent conductors—printable ones, conductive polymers and nanomaterials—will make some inroads into the PV market, the extent of their penetrations will not be enough to significantly concern the TCO industry. The market share that is captured by these printable materials will remain quite small throughout the period considered in this report. This is especially the case for the largest volume PV technologies in the thin-film PV space: CdTe and TF-Si. The volumes they achieve will be significant for the firms involved, but not as significant for the TCO firms from which they capture share.
Non-ITO TCO firms have the opportunity to increase volumes by supplying the growing PV technologies that already use them—CdTe, thin-film silicon, and CIGS. But they also have the opportunity to gain new footholds with two PV technologies that currently use only ITO: namely OPV and DSC. Not all OPV and DSC applications are as well insulated from PV cost as BIPV is; in fact, many will remain very sensitive to cost. TCO suppliers can gain volumes and make money by helping OPV and DSC move away from ITO in these applications as part of their cost reduction efforts.
Opportunities for Nanomaterials and Conductive Polymer Firms in the PV Space
Nanosilver-based transparent conductive films are on the verge of an opportunity not seen in the history of the transparent conductor industry: the ability to produce films that are both more transparent and more conductive than ITO, in commercial quantities and at lower cost. The importance of this development in the long run cannot be overestimated; it will eventually have major implications for all of the industries that use transparent conductors.
Carbon nanotube-based transparent conductors appear to be approaching a similar game-changing opportunity in the long run. Although the carbon nanotube itself is quite new and still not yet fully understood, it seems likely that these carbon nanotube-based materials will produce commercial-volume films exceeding ITO’s performance just a couple of years after the nanosilver ones do.
In the short run, adoption of such new technologies will almost certainly be rather slow and deliberate. In the PV industry, the differences in deposition processes between these nanomaterial-based materials and the standard TCOs are substantial, and somewhat risky considering the low cost of the non-ITO TCOs they would displace. NanoMarkets sees an opportunity for these materials to capture a two-percent share of the transparent conductor market in PV by 2014. And because the cost of these films is mainly in the value of the materials rather than the cost of depositing them—as is the case for TCOs—that two percent share will produce 10 percent of the transparent conductor revenues in the industry.
Conductive polymer firms also have opportunities for growth in the PV market, even though their low cost means that the revenue-generating potential is relatively small. The best opportunities are in OPV and DSC, in part because OPV already widely uses the same conductive polymers as hole injection layers/planarization layers between the active material and an ITO electrode. But both OPV and DSC will also benefit from these conductive polymers because both flexibility and cost are critical to many of the applications in which they are to be used, more so than PV performance. As OPV shifts away from ITO and the need for HILs shrinks, the new electrode application of these materials can help to fill in the gap and even grow volumes and revenues beyond what was generated by the HILs.
How New Developments in the Transparent Conductor Space will Create Opportunities for PV Panel Makers
Among PV panel makers, the development of the transparent conductor industry will produce opportunities to reduce costs and improve performance. The most immediate opportunity for PV panel makers is for thin-film silicon, OPV, and DSC manufacturers, the ones that still use ITO mainly because of its legacy. These firms have the opportunity to reduce costs by switching from ITO to one of the lower-cost TCO— tin oxide or zinc oxide. Doing so could save over 75 percent of the materials cost of the ITO, an amount that fluctuates with the price of indium and ITO.
A major approaching opportunity for PV firms is to use printing or coating to deposit the transparent conductors instead of sputtering or other vacuum deposition techniques. The advantage of doing so is not in the savings on materials cost—when the alternative is a low-cost TCO like zinc oxide or tin oxide—but in reducing the cost of applying the materials. This opportunity covers three classes of transparent conductors: conductive polymers, nanosilver-based films, and carbon nanotube films. There have also been attempts to print both ITO and other TCOs, but the commercial impact of such work seems to be negligible.
Conductive polymers: PV manufacturers have the opportunity to use conductive polymers in this regard, offering the greatest potential savings among the transparent conductive options. Manufacturers that take advantage of this route will maintain materials costs similar to those of the inexpensive TCOs, but will take full benefit from the lower cost of printing versus vacuum deposition. But this opportunity is mainly one for devices that do not require high performance, yet do require high flexibility and low cost. The conductive polymers are not very conductive or transparent in comparison to the other options, and devices using them would trade a performance hit for the lower cost and greater flexibility.
OPV is an especially good fit for using conductive polymers as electrodes because it already uses the same materials as HILs. In an overly simplistic approximation, using conductive polymers as electrodes would involve little more than leaving off the ITO layer.
Nanomaterials: The opportunities for PV manufacturers to use nanosilver- and carbon nanotube-based materials to print electrodes are geared more toward high-end flexible applications. These materials are the ones with the potential to exceed the transparency and conductivity performance of ITO and other TCOs. If they are able to achieve this higher performance, then there will be no performance hit for using them. And while these materials are not yet commercialized in any sense that is useful to determine initial pricing, NanoMarkets expects their materials costs to be higher than those of ITO, but for the low deposition cost to approximately make up for it.
Hence, the total cost of using nanosilver- and nanocarbon-based materials is likely to be greater than that of using tin oxide or zinc oxide. But this is still a major opportunity because it can enable high flexibility in products that rely on both flexibility and performance. This opportunity is closer—beginning in 2012 or 2013—for nanosilver films than it is for carbon nanotube films, which will begin to be used in significant volumes a year or two afterwards
Published: April 05, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials
NanoMarkets believes that the market for smart windows will grow substantially over the next eight years, becoming a billion-dollar market by 2015 and then more than doubling by 2018. There are several driving factors for this growth, which are discussed in the main body of this report and outlined here:
Added value: The smart window product types we discuss in this report add significant value to conventional windows in certain important market niches. Yet, the overall size of the worldwide flat glass market—some six billion square meters today,—is sufficient that even niches of well below 1 percent of the market can generate substantial sums of money from high-value smart windows.
Developing electrochromic coatings that are less costly and that provide a broader dimmable range. The limited dimmable range of some electrochromic and similar technologies limits their usefulness, and increasing that range would drive faster adoption—and increased sales of the materials that allow it. Electrochromic windows are also the most costly of the smart windows and lowering the cost of the coatings will also boost growth rates.
Opportunities for Architectural Windows Firms
The earliest opportunity for glass suppliers is for electrochromic glass, which is already established in self-dimming automotive mirrors. The automotive market can be expected to begin using electrochromic glass in other places—like side windows and sunroofs—before too long. Glass firms that have forged the right relationships with auto manufacturers will be the first to benefit.
Published: March 23, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy
Published: March 01, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials
ITO and Costs: The Real Story
Published: February 01, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy
Despite the end of the silicon shortage and the economic problems that beset much of the developed world, and the construction industry in particular, the prospects for thin-film photovoltaics (TFPV) still look quite good. The thin-film silicon sector is recovering from a bad couple of years as it has both adapted to the end of the silicon shortage and weeded out non-productive suppliers. First Solar, which dominates the CdTe sector, seems to have survived the downturn quite nicely. And the CIGS sector, while it has yet to keep its promise of high-efficiency with all the advantages of conventional solar panels, at least is still keeping that promise alive. In addition, while the end of the silicon shortage may have got rid of one of the main reasons why TFPV experienced a boom in the first place, the fact that TFPV can offer flexible PV products for building-integrated PV (BIPV) applications is a new reason why TFPV might be chosen over conventional PV.
Published: January 10, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials
Published: January 04, 2011 Category: Advanced Materials
Often described as a class of “miracle” advanced materials that will transform electronics and photovoltaics, the actual record of conductive polymers has been decidedly mixed. For example, the expectations for polymer-based photovoltaics, or conductive polymers as a transparent conductive coating, have never been met. And in the one area where organic electronics has taken off commercially—OLEDs—it is organic small molecule materials that have been widely used, not polymers. To the extent that conductive polymers have been used in commercial applications, they have tended to be low-value applications; notably anti-statics.
This underachievement of conductive polymers has not been widely recognized, especially by trade, business and popular science publications which go on reporting on these materials as if they were highly successful in the marketplace, or at least soon will be. As we have noted, however, this does not seem to be the case. But this is not to say that conductive polymers do not have a commercial future. This future, NanoMarkets believes, will depend on the clear identification of specific high-value applications where the use of conductive polymers makes sense because of their unique properties; that is, all the advantages of plastics with conductivity too. It also depends on the resolution of a handful of important technical problems that continue to beset the conductive polymer business.
In view of all this, NanoMarkets believes that there is a need for a careful and realistic assessment of the market potential for conductive polymers going forward and this is the main reason why we are publishing this report. “Realistic” in this sense means not only taking into consideration the relatively low level of success that conductive polymers have had to date in the electronics world, but also (in a more optimistic vein) what improvements can be expected in conductive polymers of the future and where they may shine in the future.
NanoMarkets believes that a number of technical developments are taking place that will improve the performance of conductive polymers and will—as a result—expand the markets available to conductive polymers over the next five-to-eight years. The most dramatic of these developments relates to nanostructuring conducting polymers in order to provide the advantages associated with higher surface area and better dispersability.
But there are also plenty of other opportunities for making the value propositions of conductive polymers in the electronics industry more viable; ones that don’t stretch all the way to using nanotechnology. Many of these revolve around the materials themselves or manufacturing processes. For example, in many cases industry is looking for more consistent materials and improved (which means lower cost) synthesis techniques. Improved materials synthesis might, for example, come from reducing the number of steps in the synthesis process; a relatively small step, but one that needs careful consideration.
Other improvements to look for are improved solubility of polymer materials. Many doped polymer materials are salt-like, which diminishes their solubility in organic solvents and hence their processability. The current solution to this issue—the addition of solubilizing substituents—only tends to complicate the synthesis process, thereby adding to the problem mentioned above. So other directions would be a welcome new direction for conductive polymers. In addition, greater solubility opens up the way for the use of solution processing; one way to reduce manufacturing costs.
Yet another issue surrounding conductive polymers at the present time is their relative instability under normal atmospheric conditions, which implies the need for better conductive polymers or better encapsulation, or both.
NanoMarkets believes that all of the above areas could represent significant opportunities for specialty chemical firms and even start-ups looking to expand their presence in organic electronics. By coming up with improvements of the kind profiled above, these firms could also considerably expand the addressable markets for polymer electronics, which now represents a relatively marginal activity, dominated by low-volume or low-value products.
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Published: December 22, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy
Published: December 21, 2010 Category: Renewable Energy
NanoMarkets has been tracking the photovoltaics industry and believes it is at a crossroads. A combination of factors now threaten to send the PV industry, kicking and screaming, back to the days when it catered to no more than a niche market. At the same time, PV technology is maturing and there is a growing realization that standard PV panels are becoming commoditized.
The combination of commoditized products and shrinking traditional products is not an attractive environment for solar panel manufacturers to make money and perhaps by now some of the old timers in the PV industry are chalking up the current situation as just another disappointment in an industry that has seen lots of disappointments since the 1970s. However, NanoMarkets believes that PV may not only be "saved" by building-integrated PV (BIPV) but may actually flourish. What BIPV does is to bring an entirely new value proposition to the PV market both in terms of cost and in terms of aesthetics. And a result, BIPV promises the PV industry an opportunity to create new higher value products, exactly what an industry with a commoditizing product set required. The purpose of this report is to explain how the BIPV business case can best be made and the purpose of this Chapter is to set out the basic "facts of the case" and to sketch how this report is designed and what its key objectives are.
Trouble in PV Paradise
After several years of impressive growth, NanoMarkets sees the solar panel market as entering a new phase of its market evolution; a phase where it will face three extraordinary challenges. The once almost-certain subsidies that were the primary cause of solar's growth in the recent past are in danger of disappearing and the "environmentally conscious" consumer market segment which has always proved a mainstay of the PV industry is, we believe about to contract. At the same time, one PV panel is becoming much like another:
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Published: December 21, 2010 Category: Smart Grids
NanoMarkets/Smart Grid Analysis’ latest research suggests that a sweet spot for the emerging microgrid market is to be found in the institutional/campus market segment. According to our analysis, no other segment comes close in terms of market size; institutional/campus grids will already generate over $400 million in revenue in 2011. This segment will also grow faster than any other segments, except the specialized military market and the niche-like “off-grid” market. By the time 2017 rolls around, we expect the worldwide market for institutional/campus microgrids to have reached well over $1.0 billion.
Our analysis suggests that there are a number of reasons why institutional/campus grids are likely to take off in the near future. On the demand side, we believe that the capabilities of microgrids are strongly aligned with the current market needs of the campus user community. On the supply side, a slew of new technologies are bringing down the cost of sophisticated microgrids, making them available to smaller schools and industrial campuses which could not have seriously considered such a high-level of energy management until now.
Familiarity and Ideology Breeds Microgrids
One reason for being bullish about campus microgrids is that the educational community is where one is most likely to find energy management administrations that are highly enthusiastic about energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy for its own sake. That is, in addition, to all the purely economic arguments for putting an independent microgrid in place in their campus, they place a very high premium on clean and efficient energy, per se. In addition, many of these educational institutions contain medical or other emergency facilities that are completely dependent on electricity to perform their functions; the high power quality guaranteed by microgrids would seem to help considerably in this regard.
What also helps in selling these the campus market on the microgrid concept is that they may already familiar with it to some extent; directly or through their peers. In many other segments of the microgrid market the whole notion of an independent grid is a novel one and it will take some time for the user community to adjust to the idea. But in the institutional and campus grid segment, there are already independent distribution grids in place. To cite a few U.S. examples: Iowa State (34 MW); University of Texas-Austin (85 MW); University of Alaska Fairbanks (22 MW); Yale (22 MW); SUNY Stony Brook (45 MW); and Wellesley College (7 MW). All this may suggest that campus management is at least a little way up the learning curve that it will be necessary before they make substantial investments in microgrids,
It is important, however, to recognize that the grids mentioned above, do not quite qualify as true microgrids. More specifically, they do not include storage for load shifting or automated sensors for internal control and microgrid automated power shedding. What they do include is combined heat and power (CHP) generation, which in turn offers increased efficiency and results in a microgrid configuration that is already economically competitive with grid power.
In fact, we see the CHP factor as another plus for sales of microgrids into the campus sector. In theory, CHP could be part of any microgrid project, but we believe that CHP is particularly easy to efficiently implement in a geographically compact group of users, such as an educational, industrial or office campus. Also, many advanced new hospitals are already using CHP and thermal storage, and have UPS requirements, so the transition to a microgrid strategy for these facilities again represents an incremental change and not a paradigm shift in their design.
All these factors combine to help create a business case for microgrids in campus environments that could not be easily made in other segments of the market. What is more, the addressable market is huge consisting as it does of the many thousands of campuses around the world where administrations are concerned about energy efficiency and where perhaps these administrations are keen on deploying solar panels as part of their generation mix.
Reaching the Smaller Campus With Microgrids
As things stand, many of these thousands of campuses – even where the management has been aware of the benefits that microgrid can bring – have seen the cost of these grids as prohibitive. However, we believe this will begin to change. Specifically, NanoMarkets believes that the addressable market for campus grids is being expanded by a slew of technology advances that are bringing down the cost of energy storage, frequency regulation and grid management more generally. While, as we noted previously, the independent grids that are currently run by campuses are not really fully qualified microgrids, the latest developments in power electronics, sensors and software will bring true microgrid capabilities to smaller campuses for the first time, in much the same way that developments in optoelectronics gave birth to small scale optical networking.
The situation is, in fact, very reminiscent of what happened in telecommunications where small schools, suddenly found themselves graduating to their own fiber optic networks that would have been beyond their budgets and ability to manage a year or two previously. In the microgrid business, we expect to see something similar occur and we think that firms that are in the microgrid space should be encouraged by this historical parallel.
As a result of all this, we expect the addressable market for microgrids to expand to smaller environments such as emergency service facilities or smaller hospitals; facilities rated in the 500 kW–4,000 kW range. Such smaller grids will be true microgrids in nature with CHP as the primary generating resource, thermal storage for heating and cooling needs, electrical storage to provide enhanced power quality and reliability, multiple levels of power quality to provide ultra-high quality to key assets with lower levels of quality to non-essential loads and pervasive sensors to enable load shedding of non-essential resources.
New Directions
NanoMarkets sees the growth in these smaller grids as being especially strong after 2015, which will give enough time for the newer grid technologies to “kick in” and provide lower prices for microgrid components such as control software, plug-and-play peer-to-peer microgrid networks, electrical storage and thermal storage. Meanwhile, we expect to the microgrid business for large educational campuses continue to expand, both with upgrades of existing grids and with entirely new and fully qualified microgrids.
The information for this report was drawn from NanoMarkets’ report, Microgrid Markets and Opportunities. Please click the link for additional details about the report.
Published: December 01, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials
The high cost of silver has become increasingly painful to users in the electronics industry over the past year. Silver has always been an expensive metal, but such users have often been persuaded not to use silver alternatives (such as copper, carbon or aluminum) by the fact that silver is the world’s most conductive material.
This physical fact won’t change, but as the price of silver rises, the incentive for users to move to non-silver products can only increase. In fact, at the present time, some of the worst nightmares for silver ink manufacturers and their customers are coming true, with silver prices increasing 50 percent in 2010 alone. At the time of writing, silver is nearing $30 per ounce and the upward price trend seems all but certain to continue. Such silver prices, combined with the high cost-consciousness of the device manufacturers that use silver inks and pastes, mean that silver ink and paste suppliers are being squeezed tightly in their margins. The prospects of inflation consequent to government monetary policies in major nations throughout the world can only make prospects for the future worse.
Nonetheless, having studied the market for silver inks and pastes for five years now, NanoMarkets believes that any substitution away from silver inks and pastes will occur at the margin; there will be no wholesale abandonment of such inks and pastes. Silver is entrenched in the conductive printing market simply because it is, without any reasonable dissension, the best material for the job. In most cases, users of silver inks and pastes can’t do much more than reduce waste and shop around for the lowest-cost suppliers that fill their needs.
But that doesn’t mean that makers of other conductive inks won’t keep offering substitutes for silver. Copper, carbon, and aluminum will continue to vie for portions of the printed conductor market, with renewed vigor in some cases, as they seek to offer less-costly alternatives to ever-more-expensive silver. And in some cases they will succeed in penetrating further into these markets, although typically as a complement to silver rather than as a complete replacement. Combination inks—combining silver and carbon or silver and copper, for instance—can offer modest savings when the highest level of performance isn’t critical. Such combination materials have been around for many years.
Nanosilver: The Answer to High Silver Prices? Or Still an Academic Effort?
One highly-publicized—and highly researched—approach to “using less” silver has been to use nanosilver-based inks and pastes in place of the conventional “micro” silver that makes up the vast majority of the market.
The thinking here, of course, is that nanoparticles of silver contain less “inactive” silver in the center of the particles, and hence equivalent conductivity can be achieved with much less material. But while the science supports this approach to some extent, nanosilver has still not taken off as many have hoped it would.
We note, in particular, that the markets that the manufacturers of nanosilver inks and pastes promised to penetrate a few years ago are still using little nanosilver; or none at all. Part of the problem seems to be that the savings from using less silver are largely—sometimes completely—eaten up by the higher cost of the nanosilver itself, let alone the changes in design and equipment that are needed to use it. And after a while, nanosilver ink makers can only begin to lose credibility, if they haven’t already done so.
But like the producers of silver substitutes, nanosilver ink developers and suppliers are also emboldened by the rising cost of silver. With (proportionately) smaller quantities of silver being used in nanosilver preparations, the rising price of silver has a much smaller impact on the cost of nanosilver inks and pastes than it does on conventional silver paste. This enhances nanosilver inks’ value position as a conventional silver replacement; in some sense it narrows the gap between nanosilver and conventional silver inks and pastes. And to some extent the old arguments for nanosilver still remain intact; these include that nanosilver makes sense where screen printing is unsuitable and/or where inkjet provides significant benefits.
So which will it be? Can nanosilver ink costs come down enough that conventional silver paste users will consider it a reasonable alternative to thick-film? Or will the economic uncertainty and risk aversion that typify the current age cause device manufacturers to settle in with the conventional silver materials they are already comfortable with, leaving nanosilver largely as a research material with some industrial niches? This report examines these questions, but part of the answer appears apparent in the growing interest in nanosilver-based inks in the important transparent conductor market, poised to become a major niche for nanosilver inks, although admittedly of a rather different kind and from different suppliers than were prominent a few years back.
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Published: November 29, 2010 Category: OLED Lighting
Four Reasons for Skepticism about the Prospects for OLED Lighting
With new companies entering the OLED lighting business seemingly every month, it is increasingly vital to go beyond the hype and identify why the world really needs OLED lighting and how the manufacturing and marketing of OLED lighting can generate new business revenues. Certainly even a casual look at the OLED lighting space so far suggests that there are at least four reasons to be skeptical about OLED lighting’s prospects:
· This field seems to have taken off when a number of firms quit the active matrix (AM) OLED space and went looking for a new OLED related business. In a sense, this may have been a vote of confidence in OLED lighting (why chase after a market you don’t believe in?), but it is hardly a proof of its commercial viability.
· While OLEDs undoubtedly provide all the advantages usually associated with solid-state lighting (SSL), they will have to compete in the solid-state lighting market with inorganic LEDs (ILEDs), a significantly more mature technology. And what OLEDs supposedly have to bring to market that ILEDs cannot offer are unproven; features such as flexibility and the ability to be manufactured using R2R processes.
· OLED lighting products available to date – and there is a growing number of them -- fall into the category of “designer lighting.” The fact that there are such products at all is certainly a reason to think well of the future of OLED lighting, but most forecasts of OLED lighting (including ours) presume a significant penetration of the general lighting market, which designer lighting of the kind in which OLED lights are now incarnated could never achieve. While OLED lighting manufacturers seem to believe that OLED lighting will in some sense become fairly close economic substitutes for incandescent bulbs and florescent tubes – products that are currently sold at throwaway prices – it is far from clear how the lighting manufacturers get from here to there, as it were.
· The bold predictions that are made for OLED lighting are mostly predicated on the view that there will be a rapid phasing out of incandescent bulbs in most of the developed world and that fluorescent lights will not be able to easily fill the gap that is left. This is implicitly a judgment about both the capabilities of fluorescent lights and of the effect and persistence of regulation related to phasing out inefficient lighting sources. But how far can this judgment really be justified?
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Published: November 29, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials
In its report on carbon inks, pastes and coatings, NanoMarkets has identified a new breed of applications in the energy sector where conventional carbon inks and pastes have an important role to play and where substantial revenue opportunities will be available over the next five to eight years. Carbon materials suppliers who can sell a “green tech” marketing story will be able to distinguish themselves in the marketplace with products which are, by all appearances, not garden variety carbon pastes.
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Published: November 22, 2010 Category: Electronics and Devices Smart Grids
Published: November 18, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy
Published: November 15, 2010 Category: Renewable Energy
Despite the end of the silicon shortage and the economic problems that beset much of the developed world, and the construction industry in particular, the prospects for thin-film photovoltaics (TFPV) still look quite good. The thin-film silicon sector is recovering from a bad couple of years as it has both adapted to the end of the silicon shortage and weeded out non-productive suppliers. First Solar, which dominates the CdTe sector, seems to have survived the downturn quite nicely. And the CIGS sector, while it has yet to keep its promise of high-efficiency with all the advantages of conventional solar panels, at least is still keeping that promise alive. In addition, while the end of the silicon shortage may have got rid of one of the main reasons why TFPV experienced a boom in the first place, the fact that TFPV can offer flexible PV products for building-integrated PV (BIPV) applications is a new reason why TFPV might be chosen over conventional PV.
Thin-Film Silicon: Beyond Amorphous Silicon?
During the silicon shortage polysilicon spot prices went from around 60$/kg to a high of 450$/kg in mid-2008 and have fallen to around 70$/kg today. This spike in price provided the opportunity for improved a-Si modules to be introduced to the market and the opportunity for CdTe to get a foothold in the market place. But at current prices for polysilicon, the future of thin-film silicon has been effectively decoupled from events in the silicon markets and refocused on how well thin-film silicon can compete on price and performance for market share both with crystalline silicon PV and its cousins in the TFPV family.
At heart these are very much materials issues. Thin-film silicon material has an inherent weight and flexibility advantage over conventional silicon because of the materials that it uses. This is, obviously, very well understood by materials suppliers, but we note that the rise of thin-film BIPV, which may put flexibility at a premium, is very good news for materials firms selling into this space in that it means greater volumes of thin-film products sold.
But where we see a genuine value-added opportunity for materials suppliers in the thin-film silicon space is through the supply of new kinds of silicon. Traditional single and dual-junction amorphous silicon cells have reached maturity and are at the point of incremental cost cutting. Current cells remain attractive for applications which require low cost and do not require high conversion efficiencies (8-10 percent). But suppliers of a-Si panels are looking at ways that they can get a little closer to competing with c-Si panels at the margins and in certain applications.
From a materials perspective, the excitement here is in the area of microcrystalline, nanocrystalline and advanced heterostructures (nanorods, etc.) which may give a path to 12-18 percent efficiency while reusing much of the same knowledge base and manufacturing infrastructure, thus providing a potential path to greater efficiency with little increased cost. The new structures based on microcrystalline or nanocrystalline silicon also are much less susceptible or immune to the loss of efficiency from the Staebler-Wronski effect that plagues true amorphous cells.
While the advantages of these new materials has been long understood, there are now strong signs that these advanced materials could fundamentally change the game plan in the thin-film silicon space by opening up new markets for thin-film silicon PV and perhaps enabling new materials firms to enter this space with strong and protectable IP positions. We note that combinations of thin-film silicon and c-Si are already common in the form of Sanyo's Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin Layer (HIT) cell and a first step towards using nanosilicon may be a hybrid approach of this kind. Thus, Innovalight's printed nanocrystalline silicon PV material will wisely first be used commercially in this way on top of a c-Si wafer, in order to debut with a premium product instead of a low-performance pure nanocrystalline silicon-only cell that is unlikely to be favorably received in the marketplace.
Not all of the opportunities in the thin-film materials space are quite as "high tech" as the ones discussed in the previous paragraph. Lowering overall cost is an area that materials vendors can exploit to increase their market share. The best example we have seen of this to date is in the area of silane quality for amorphous silicon sells. The vast majority of silane sold for solar applications is of semiconductor quality. But at least one vendor now sells a "solar quality" silane which does not degrade cell efficiency but does lower silane costs compared to semiconductor grade silane. This kind of thinking will have to be applied over the entire materials value chain for each of the TFPV technologies to achieve full competitive advantage in the marketplace.
While not exactly a materials opportunity, it is also worth noting that turnkey a-Si equipment manufacturers and their customers were forced from the market as a result of the downturn, their misfortune has created a glut of slightly used or even unused a-Si equipment that can be either used for a-Si deposition or modified to accommodate micro or nanocrystalline deposition techniques as demand rebounds. The purchase of used equipment at 10-20 cents on the dollar could make business plans for novel thin-film silicon solutions more attractive than outfitting equivalent CdTe or CIGS factories with new equipment.
CdTe: Is There Life Beyond First Solar and What Does It Mean for Materials Suppliers?
While our focus in this report is on materials suppliers, not panel makers, it is impossible not to mention First Solar in any kind of discussion about CdTe. First Solar dominates the CdTe space and seems to be very good at what it does; the low cost structure of First Solar's manufacturing is well known. The dominance of First Solar has important consequences for the materials space, however. Because of this dominance, the CdTe space has brought about standardization of the materials used for CdTe PV in a manner not seen in the other materials-defined sectors of the PV industry.
Of course, First Solar's market share is simply today's reality and there is no law that says that other CdTe panel firms cannot be formed successfully although perhaps First Solar has set the bar quite high. One of the reasons that First Solar is so strong in this space is that other CdTe suppliers of the past have had management problems and have had problems that are not any indication on how things will pan out in the future. We note there are now several firms active in the CdTe space that deserve to be taken seriously. Several possible competitors for First Solar on the horizon are Prime Star Solar (backed by GE), Abound Solar (formerly AVA), Q-cells/Calyxo-USA.
The success of any one of these firms could have a fairly profound impact on the supply of materials for the CdTe space. Some of the smaller CdTe PV companies developing alternative manufacturing processes hope to compete with First Solar's offerings. While First Solar relies on vapor transport deposition which is around 70 percent efficient with respect to metals, others are developing electrodeposition techniques which are up to 99 percent efficient in their use of Cd and Te, which may provide these competitors a path in the long term to achieve a lower overall cost structure than First Solar's vapor transport process. This is especially true if demand is brisk and the cost of Te goes up.
But since the newer companies are using different deposition techniques to First Solar, their materials requirements are likely to be somewhat different from those of First Solar, allowing the entry of newer suppliers, perhaps.
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Published: November 01, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials
A smart coating is defined as any coating that changes material properties in response to an environmental stimulus. Coatings have been engineered that link changes in light, temperature, humidity, pressure, electrical current, and many other inputs to a variety of outputs. One can imagine innumerable stimulus/response pairs, each with its own potential application and development challenges.
Obviously, the definitions provided above are broad enough to cover a very wide range of coatings. However, in terms of smart coatings that are likely to generate significant revenues within the eight-year time frame of this report, the kinds of coatings that are worth considering constitute a fairly short list. This list will include coatings with the following types of functionality: anti-corrosive, self-healing, adaptive camouflage, antimicrobial coatings, drug delivery, smart optical capability, and enhanced protection for consumer electronics. But this is not an exhaustive list. In terms of end users, the sectors where we expect to see the most demand for smart coatings are the military, energy, medical, transportation, and consumer applications. However, it is important for the reader to understand that in all of these applications and sectors, smart coatings are more expensive than traditional coatings. NanoMarkets believes this will continue to be true for the foreseeable future.
Therefore, when discussing smart coatings, it is important to consider how smart coatings justify this higher cost; that is, how business cases can be built to support their use. Some of these business cases will be based on the fact that a smart coating can fill an unmet need in a market place that is relatively price insensitive such as military and medical applications. Other smart coatings attempt to lower the overall cost of ownership of the item being coated. This can be done by extending lifetime, increasing functionality, or reducing installation costs, for example. A newly developed smart coating that does not fit one of these two business plans, is unlikely to represent a commercially viable opportunity.
Smart coatings and smart surfaces: We note that the term “smart coating” has a meaning that is close to that of “smart surfaces.” These are not precise technical terms, but for the purposes of this report, we take smart surfaces to be a somewhat broader term and one that includes materials that are not coatings but rather materials whose surface has been engineered (perhaps nanoengineered) to provide functionality that is very similar to the smart coatings reviewed here.
The military—especially the U.S. military—has traditionally been a large and early market for emerging technologies and advanced materials, and smart coatings are no different. Two areas within the military sphere that we believe are important early markets for smart coatings are anti-corrosive coatings and adaptive camouflage.
Anti-corrosive coatings: By its own estimates, corrosion costs the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) $20 billion per year. Of that, $4 billion is related to painting and re-painting of equipment and structures. To help lower those costs, the Army is working with various companies to develop smart coatings that can reduce the corrosion problem, or at least serve as an early warning system.
With regard to the latter, coatings that send a signal to maintenance crews when the underlying metal is corroding are being developed. This signal may be a simple color change, or it may glow under a fluorescent light. More technologically advanced—and therefore likely to emerge somewhat later in our forecast period—are self-healing coatings that can actually resist corrosion. The U.S. Army is working on such coatings with (for example) Autonomic Materials.
The value proposition of both types of smart coating is compelling and multifaceted: fewer man hours spent on maintenance, greater equipment longevity and uptime in harsh environments, and a reduced cost of ownership. Ultimately, NanoMarkets expects to see the two strategies implemented side-by-side. The self-healing coatings will be able to extend the mean time between failures of the substrate, but they will not be able to self-heal indefinitely. Because of the longer time between failures, it will become more important to employ corrosion sensing coatings. Such coatings will draw attention to the problem areas during the infrequent times when maintenance is required.
Adaptive camouflage: The military is also working with industrial partners on developing adaptive camouflage. Most camouflage currently employed by the military is passive. Think here of the iconic green and brown fatigues designed to look like wooded terrain. As sensing devices get more sophisticated, so too must the camouflage designed to help soldiers evade detection.
With this in mind, thermochromic (changes color in response to heat) or photochromic (changes color in response to light) coatings can help to mask the infra-red signature of a tank. However, actual implementation of such materials has proved tricky. Significant technical challenges must be overcome, such as slow response time and poor infrared matching to the environment. However, in life-or-death applications such as military camouflage even small improvements in performance are better than nothing. Expect to see such coatings increasing in use, concomitant with technical advances.
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Published: November 01, 2010 Category: Renewable Energy
Published: October 14, 2010 Category: Renewable Energy
No longer is PV installation a simple matter of the cost of the panels versus the value of the electricity generated. Building Integrated PV (BIPV) it is an integral part of building design and style. Arguably, Japan has been the country that initiated the BIPV market, with its early use of a form of BIPV technology; small solar “tiles” integrated into rooftops. However, as NanoMarkets discusses in its recent study of BIPV markets in general, BIPV technology has progressed significantly since then and now consists of well-differentiated rigid, flexible and transparent building products.
How well such products are likely these products are – or will be – accepted in Asia depends on four different factors. The first is essentially cultural; that is the level to which the environmental “meme” has dug into national culture. There is seldom a direct correlation between BIPV adoption and some specific policy such as a national renewable energy use goal, but such goals are a measure of how seriously the installation of BIPV will be taken in a given nation. In particular, a strong national sense that it is important to adopt green technologies may well favor BIPV over regular PV as way of proving that PV is integrated into cultural consciousness as well as physically into buildings
A second factor is the state of the construction market in any given Asian country and this factor applies in two senses. First one must obviously consider the general health of the construction industry. The consensus here is that PV is much more likely to be installed in new construction than as a retrofit, since this is where PV offers the best economics. And obviously, this kind of market factor impacts BIPV as much as it does PV; indeed more so because full-scale integration as a retrofit is harder than just screwing a panel to a roof. The other sense in which the state of the construction industry is of importance is in terms of the interest level in building the kind of prestige building that currently constitutes a large part of the BIPV market.
The third factor is the regulatory framework in which PV in general operates. Obviously, fiscal and other incentives have a strong influence on whether PV – including BIPV – is deployed or not. In theory, there could be special incentives for BIPV, perhaps on the grounds of the need to safeguard urban aesthetics. As far as we are aware, only China has such special incentives for BIPV at the national level. Finally, there are general issues of economic development that impact BIPV deployment. More specifically, BIPV can be characterized as a very high-end building product and in geographical areas that could be considered underdeveloped economically, there is only limited room for such products.
The realities of factors that impact the BIPV market in Asia listed above are complex and equivocal, this being most obviously true of cultural factors. For example, some countries in the region apparently have ambitious plans for renewable energy deployment and integration, but it is not always clear how seriously these should be taken. Secondly, there uncertainties with regard to regulatory structure and what impact that has. For example, there seems to be much confusion as to what China actually subsidizes under its BIPV subsidy.
Then, of course, there are more general economic uncertainties with regard to the world economy; whether we are about to slip into a double dip recession, for example. There is also the question about when boom construction markets in China, India and a few of the other smaller Asian countries will begin to quiet down or go into decline.
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Published: October 05, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials
This does not mean that these segments generate minimal revenues, but rather that there are established suppliers that are hard to compete with and the profitability is hardly worth the prize. That said, there seem to be a growing number of applications where the market is open to new conductive coatings and new suppliers. It is such areas that this report and its ancestors focus on. Each of these areas, we believe, is dynamic enough to warrant annual analytical coverage; and this is the main objective of this report.
Although the emerging opportunities for conductive coatings are hard to classify precisely, we see most of them as falling into three categories. Arguably the most important category is the conductive coatings used for contacts and electrodes for new types of electronics, optical devices, batteries and photovoltaics panels.
But the story is bigger—much bigger—than this. Antistatic coatings for packaging and industrial clothing is likely to see something of a boom as the semiconductor industry moves down the path set for it by Moore’s Law. As the node size decreases, the concern about damage from static electricity and vagrant currents becomes more important. With the semiconductor industry about to move beyond the 45-nm node, antistatic coatings are becoming increasingly essential in electronics packaging, as well as for the clothing and furniture used in the electronics industry.
The conductive coatings used for antistatic applications are mostly bulk materials and this is also true for the coatings used for EMI/RFI shielding, which NanoMarkets believes is another area of growing importance with main driver being the of computing and communications becomes from wired to wireless. We note that in this report, we have given considerable more attention to both EMI/RFI and antistatic applications than in previous applications.
That these three areas are important is fairly easy to understand. However, what makes the conductive coatings business much more of a complex market that is in need of analysis is that in many cases, the materials choices for the conductive coatings used in these dynamic areas have yet to be finally settled on. For example, if the inevitable solution to EMI shielding was always layer of copper (a solution widely used in the past), there would be little to talk about in a report such as this.
Traditionally, and for obvious reasons, conductive coatings have been metals. The major exception to this rule is where the coating has had to be transparent as well as conductive; this is the case in the display and solar panel industry for example. In such cases, transparent conductive (metal) oxides (TCOs) have been used, with indium tin oxide (ITO) being widely used because of its relative good tradeoff between transparency and conductivity.
However, the conductive coatings market is dynamic on the supply side as well as on the demand side. There have always been complex tradeoffs between costs and performance in the conductive coatings market and these continue to raise challenges and opportunities, but the appearance of nanomaterials and conductive polymers in commercial conductive coatings has only made the choice of materials more complex, and consequently the opportunities for suppliers of conductive coatings that much greater. Materials selection for conductive coatings may also be impacted by the current worldwide recession. Where a designer might have been cautious about using an indium- or silver-based coating a year ago because of the high price of such metals, in today’s economy these coatings could have acceptable economics.
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Published: October 01, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials
Zinc oxide (ZnO) has been used since the Bronze Age, but obviously not for its electrical properties; it was used as a salve and as an alloying agent to make bronze. However, since the beginning of the 20th century, ZnO has been used in a number of important electronics products including varistors, surface acoustic wave (SAW) devices, various kinds of EMI/RFI and anti-static coatings, as well as in coated paper used in copying technology prior to the commercialization of xerography.
All products on this list are still in existence and some are important revenue generators. Varistors comprise a business that is worth hundreds of millions of dollars a year and ZnO is the main material from which varistors are built. SAW devices are regularly used in mobile phones, a huge market in volume terms. It is even possible that some growth can be squeezed out of these mature markets for ZnO. After all, the market for mobile phones continues to grow and sales of ZnO to the varistor segment will be boosted by the fact that electronic devices will become increasingly vulnerable to vagrant currents and static electricity as the semiconductor industry continues to produce ever more integrated devices. Something similar can be said about antistatic coatings that use ZnO.
However, none of the applications described above could really be said to be an opportunity in the sense that no firm is going to rush into the ZnO business or have a reasonable expectation that it will be able to raise money to do so based on the prospects mentioned in the paragraphs above. These more mature areas, although they will continue to represent a significant share of the ZnO electronics business even at the end of the forecast period considered here, but are not worth pursuing by new entrants.
Given all this, why would NanoMarkets publish a market analysis of the ZnO industry? Two years ago when we first published a study in this area, the motivation was largely a groundswell of interest in what might be called “ZnO microelectronics,” that is the use of ZnO as a semiconductor to produce thin-film transistors (TFTs), light emitting diodes (LEDs), power electronics, etc. As a compound semiconductor, ZnO could be expected to achieve functionality and performance different from what silicon could achieve in a number of different ways. In addition, ZnO electronic devices could be transparent and this opened up speculations about the potential for a “transparent electronics,” of the kind that was featured in the movie “Minority Report.”
Unfortunately, much of what was hoped for in terms of the more high-tech aspects of ZnO electronics have yet to come about. One reason is undoubtedly the worldwide economic crisis which (among other things), has hurt the chances of ZnO semiconductor start-ups getting money from VCs; something that would have been a natural development in happier times. Another is that—as is so often the case with new technology trends—demand for novel ZnO devices has failed to take off as fast as some people expected.
Nonetheless, we believe that the fundamentals of ZnO electronics are still sound and that it still represents an opportunity for both materials and device companies; not to mention the firms that use ZnO products. However, the timeframes in which we see these opportunities developing are less aggressive than they once might have been. Bearing all this in mind—and especially that ZnO still appears to have significant market potential in the electronics space, but with different emphases and timeframes than would have been judged likely two years ago, NanoMarkets believes that this is a good time to publish a new report in the area.
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Published: September 27, 2010 Category: Renewable Energy
Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) is still a fledgling business and although a wide variety of BIPV products are now on offer the volumes sold are still low. Nonetheless, BIPV has the potential to change the terms of reference for the solar panel industry in a number of ways. From the demand side of the equation, BIPV improves the aesthetics of PV and could potentially reduce the total costs of constructing home, offices and factories utilizing solar panels.
Both these factors potentially open up new addressable markets. From the supply perspective, BIPV offers new ways for PV panel suppliers to distinguish themselves in the marketplace. Specifically, it becomes easier for panel makers to show that their products are different from "plain vanilla" panels and also (if they wish) to re-position their products as building materials rather than PV panels if this fits in with their product/marketing strategies.
All of the above should be very welcome news for the PV industry which has lost momentum in the past couple of years as the result of the worldwide recession and the near collapse of construction markets in a number of geographies.
BIPV: The New Value Proposition for Solar
Aesthetics: For the earliest adopters of photovoltaics the value obtained from the PV system has often come from a sense that they are complying with the goals of environmental ideology. In some cases, they have also certainly considered the panels and mechanical systems supporting them to be attractive works of art. However, it was always unlikely that PV could spread into large addressable markets based on such drivers.
Understanding this was what led to the first generation of BIPV product. This first generation of BIPV systems was primarily architectural in nature. It consisted of attempts to make the PV panels more unobtrusive,such as installing them parallel to the roof surface or even hidden on a flat roof—and without the sun-tracking systems that would boost performance at the expense of a much more visually conspicuous system—and choosing thinner panels. In addition to helping PV appeal to a broader audience, the first generation of BIPV also has been intended to meet the requirements of certain local governments, which have either mandated BIPV or required that PV panels be hidden from view.
These first generation BIPV systems are not our primary concern in this report. Rather we are more interested in BIPV products as opposed to BIPV design. The BIPV products we have in mind here are those that integrate smoothly with building surfaces. At a minimum, they lie flush on a rooftop or wall; more specialized products also serve as roofing or cladding themselves or even as skylights or other building features. BIPV products, properly installed, simply look better to most observers, a major concern for buildings and systems that will be present for several decades. Along with many less tangible benefits, the beauty of a building contributes to its value.
Costs: Inevitably, the cost of a BIPV system is higher than a standard PV panel of a similar performance. However, the big hope for BIPV is that it can lower the total costs of construction of a BIPV-enabled building, since the cost of using BIPV materials will be lower than using conventional building materials in conjunction with conventional PV systems.
It is not yet clear that BIPV has yet reached a point where the expectations set out in the paragraph above are being met and to some great extent, BIPV will stand or fall on whether they are. However, if costs for BIPV begin to reach the point where BIPV products can be positioned as high-end building materials it opens up a lot of new possibilities for solar panel makers who have adopted the BIPV approach; these possibilities include everything from new marketing channels, to opportunities for creating new brands, to yet another way to distinguish their products from conventional panels.
Three Approaches to Building Integration: Rigid, Flexible, Transparent
From a product perspective, NanoMarkets believes that the BIPV market into three broad categories, based on the function that the BIPV products serve in the building envelope. These categories are (1) rigid BIPV tiles and panels, (2) flexible BIPV products and laminates, and (3) transparent or semitransparent BIPV glass products. Each of these product categories are at a different level technological maturity and also have significantly different addressable markets.
Rigid products: Rigid BIPV products represent a minimal departure from the manufacturing of conventional panels, which are overwhelmingly rigid. As such, they are relatively low risk, presenting customers with similar perceptions to those that they have come to expect from regular PV panels.
NanoMarkets, however, believes that there are distinct opportunities in this space that BIPV can tap into in a manner not available to conventional PV panels. Rigid BIPV products that are available or planned include tiles that are designed to interlace with conventional roofing tiles or cladding materials; larger tiles that serve as entire roof portions or wall portions themselves; and thin, flush-mounted panels that overlay conventional roofing or siding but are specifically designed for flush mounting on buildings.
Flexible products: Flexible PV laminates are a newer direction for BIPV than the rigid systems described above. Besides flexible PV laminates, which are designed to be glued onto existing building materials such as metal roofing, there are also products like flexible shingles that interlace with conventional asphalt shingles. Also coming soon are flexible building materials with PV cells built or deposited directly onto them. These products aim to integrate the PV panels more completely with building materials than today's laminates which are applied in a separate installation.
The flexible product segment of the BIPV market clearly involves novel products and as such they represent a riskier business proposition than the rigid BIPV products described above. They are also reliant on using newer materials platforms; primarily thin-film and organic PV, since these materials are flexible and conventional c-Si PV is not. It is still an open question as to which of the several thin-film/organic approaches to PV is best suited to flexible PV.
Transparent: BIPV glass products are in many cases essentially a way of using glazing to make PV cells and modules into decorative building features. For the time being, at least, they are typically not transparent enough to provide good visibility through the panel and they are thus not used where visibility is important. But they do offer the opportunity to integrate PV into buildings in places and as part of features where the penetration of some sunlight is desired.
The initial markets for BIPV glass are in skylights, facades, curtain walls, and shade structures such as canopies and it can often be easily built to custom dimensions and shapes, either by adjusting the number and spacing of crystalline silicon cells or by cutting thin-film PV panels to size. The possibility of windows that are also PV panels has been much talked about, but the materials and manufacturing platforms necessary to produce a real product of this kind, seem quite far off.
Published: September 02, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy
In serving the applications for silver inks and pastes, manufacturers and distributors face a quandary: most of the high-growth markets for silver are relatively small, while the larger markets are already mature and generally offer only modest growth prospects. But the photovoltaics market for silver inks and pastes offers the best of both worlds. This segment is already approaching a billion dollars in annual revenues, but it will grow faster—in absolute terms—than any of the other silver ink categories, and it will challenge traditional thick-film applications for dominance of the overall silver electronics market by the end of the period covered by this report. With all this in mind, this report specifically analyzes the photovoltaics-related markets for silver inks and pastes, in order to provide a comprehensive analysis of the revenue opportunities for firms in this space.
Published: July 01, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
NanoMarkets' just-published analysis of the ITO alternatives market suggests that this market - much touted for several years - is ready to take off. We have been following ITO alternatives for several years now and have generally been quite bullish on their long-term prospects. In our latest report, however, we show that news from the alternative ITO "industry" is pointing towards accelerating commercialization.
In terms of "hard cash" we see revenues from ITO alternatives growing from about $140 million in 2010 to $1.1 billion in 2015 and then going on to reach almost $2.0 billion in 2017. And while almost all of the 2010 number will come from low-margin/commodity transparent conducting oxides, much of the future opportunity will come from more exotic - and certainly more profitable - nanomaterials; especially carbon nanotube films and nanosilver films.
The PV industry has already shifted its interest from ITO to other TCOs on cost - and cost stability -- grounds. But, while alternative TCOs inevitably have cost advantages over ITO, they are usually far less transparent and conductive. We continue to believe that nanomaterials-especially nanosilver inks and carbon nanotube coatings-represent the only materials category where there is a significant likelihood of achieving materials that outperform ITO in terms of both transparency and conductivity while also reducing costs. Such materials either realistically promise very low materials costs (carbon nanotubes) or low-cost processing (nanosilver inks) or both. Other advantages that these alternatives may offer are cost stability (nanotubes again) and flexibility (good for touch-screen and flexible displays).
Research and development in these areas has been ongoing for years and this has often seemed to involve mostly fairly obscure companies. However, dig down a little further and you find that there is considerable interest from larger firms too. Ascent, a major player in the CIGS PV space, is working with Cambrios to develop nanosilver materials as the transparent electrode for its PV cells. Meanwhile, Sumitomo has a tripartite relationship with Chisso and Cambrios to sell a similar material into the LCD industry. Sumitomo, through its CDT subsidiary, has also announced the use of a copper formulation to replace ITO in OLED lighting.
And on the nanotube front, LG Display has a recently negotiated a joint development agreement with Unidym, which is also working with Samsung on nanotube transparent electrode film for e-paper displays. Then there is Novaled and Saint-Gobain Recherche, which announced as long as two years ago that they had developed a transparent electrode material for OLEDs with up to ten times the surface conductivity of ITO.
We believe that with the involvement of such companies, there is a very good chance that ITO alternatives will quickly reach a level of technological maturity that enables them to be a serious competitor to ITO in a number of important applications.
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Published: June 08, 2010 Category: Smart Grids
Published: June 01, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials
NanoMarkets believes that one of the fastest growing technology markets in the next five years will be solid-state lighting (SSL). This sector consists of high-brightness LEDs (HB-LEDs), organic LEDs (OLEDs) and an already well-established technology; electroluminescent (EL) light. SSL is about to get a boost from the phasing out of incandescent bulbs on energy efficiency grounds that will occur in the U.S., Europe and many other geographies that will occur around 2012.
SSL is a core focus of NanoMarkets and we discuss its prospects in depth in a number of our reports and articles. Here, however, our interest is in SSL as a market for silver inks and pastes. We expect this market to get close to $250 million in sales by the middle of this decade. This compares with almost zero revenues at the present time. Our principal interest in this article is with silver used for OLED and EL lighting in electrodes and bus bars. Silver is not used in HB-LED lighting.
Uses of Silver in OLED Lighting
OLED lighting is just at the beginning of its market evolution. Although a number of very “cool” OLED light fixtures have appeared at major lighting trade shows, the reality is that if you want to buy OLED lighting today, what is available to you would be kits consisting of some OLED material and the necessary electronics. These kits are intended for designers who want to work with OLEDs and take OLED lighting to the consumer product level. An encouraging sign for OLED lighting is that important firms are investing in its development. The three giants of the lighting industry – GE, Osram and Philips -- are all in this space, as are leading OLED firms such as Novaled, and UDC.
Printed silver already has a foothold in the OLED business. It has been discussed as an electrode material for OLED displays and this thinking would certainly translate into use in the lighting environment. At least one company -- Add-Vision (AVI) – has already made silver cathodes a core part of its technology. The motivation here is that more conventional cathode materials such as calcium are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions, requiring tightly controlled deposition conditions. Even after the cathode has been evaporated, it must remain inside a nitrogen environment, which adds complexity and cost to manufacturing.
By adopting silver as a cathode, AVI is able to create a manufacturing environment in which OLEDs can be printed. While these OLEDs are not high-performance; of the kind that could be used for say a high-definition television, they are very suitable for simple backlighting, signage, etc., adding a brightness and variety of colors that have not been available before. In this sense, silver pastes, represent an enabling technology for OLEDs, allowing them to reach market segments that would not be available to them using conventional materials.
Another way that silver could serve as enabling lighting in the OLED lighting is by serving as bus bars. To be commercially successful, OLED lighting must be available in relatively large-sized panels; a few feet across, not the few inches that is achievable now. The problem here is that if one thing has been learned through the course of development of OLED lighting it is that their lighted appearance is very sensitive to voltage drops. Long passes of current through relatively high-resistivity ITO or comparable transparent conductors result in voltage drops that appear visibly as dimmed portions of the device.
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Published: May 31, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials
On the face of it, OLEDs appear to have a lot of market potential. Their vibrant colors and thin format promise a new generation of televisions and mobile displays much superior in visual quality than LCD displays. And OLED lighting may a new technology that fills the gap when incandescent lights begin to disappear from the market in the 2012/2013 timeframe.
In both cases, price points are going to be crucial to the success of OLEDs and one way to achieve better prices is with printing. As we emphasize in this article, this is largely a matter of finding the right materials. Although printed OLEDs have never quite achieved the success that some have projected for them, as this article shows, a surprisingly large number of the world’s biggest materials and chemical firms are betting on them. The information for this article is drawn from NanoMarkets’ latest research report on OLED materials in which we forecast that sales of polymer OLED materials – the kind of OLED materials used in printed OLEDs – will reach $475 million in sales by 2017.
The OLED business has had many ups and downs. Once predicted to be “what’s next” after LCD, OLED displays have lingered at the fringes of the display industry for quite a few years, and have only just begun to move beyond the physically small and unprofitable MP3 and cell phone sub-display sectors. The hope for ultra-cool – and ultra-thin – OLED TVs took a hit last year when it became apparent that in the middle of the world’s worst recession for many years, consumers would be unwilling to pay thousands of dollars for a medium-sized OLED TV set.
Perhaps the final indignity for OLEDs came when, at the end of 2009, Kodak, who more or less invented OLEDs, announced that it would sell its OLED business to a group of LG companies.
Nonetheless, OLEDs are alive and well. A new generation of OLED televisions is expected to reach the market soon. And perhaps more importantly, OLED lighting now seems to be a major opportunity to provide the efficient lighting that the market will demand when incandescent lights start to be phased out in the 2012/2013 timeframe in many nations across the globe.
With all this in mind, NanoMarkets believes that it is important to remember that the opportunities available in both the OLED display and lighting space are first and foremost materials-enabled opportunities; they are all about designing materials that have better and better lifetimes, brightness, efficiencies, frequency stability and manufacturability.
No wonder then that some of the world’s great materials firms – DuPont, 3M, Bayer, Sumitomo, among them – have staked their claim in the OLED space. It is also a vote of confidence in OLED technology which, as we have just seen, could use such a vote. But we must also ask ourselves what exactly is this vote for. What has become the standard version of OLEDs uses small molecule materials and what amounts to deposition technologies that have been borrowed from the standard armory of manufacturing tools.
But there is another way to make OLEDs and that is to print them.
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Published: May 31, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials
Carbon inks have been a mainstay of the thick film electronics business for as long as most people can remember. The established carbon inks are used with silver inks, either to adjust conductivity levels or to reduce costs; carbon, obviously, is priced at a lot less than silver. And in a period of deflation, especially when this is (paradoxically) combined with high silver prices, NanoMarkets sees a growing opportunity for standard carbon inks to replace silver inks wherever this is technically possible.
But in the long run purely cost-based strategies are inherently based on the idea that what is being sold is no more than a low-margin commodity, which is essentially what the older carbon inks are. By contrast, inks and pastes based not on these inks, but on new high-conductivity carbon materials; carbon nanotubes and graphene, provide a way forward based on value-added products that – potentially at least – can offer suppliers attractive margins.
Carbon nanotube inks have been available from a number of vendors for several years. It is especially closely associated with Eikos, which seems to have pioneered the idea. By contrast, graphene inks are very new and have been mostly identified to date with Vorbeck Materials which has developed a graphene-based ink in cooperation with BASF. But today, the revenues from these inks are negligible. However, NanoMarkets believes that five years from now these newer materials will have created reasonable size businesses – $157 million for carbon nanotube inks and pastes and $130 million for graphene. A few years later, by 2017, we expect carbon nanotube and graphene inks together to account for almost $815 million in revenues.
As a practical matter, we see most of these revenues as coming from opportunities in which these new “nano-carbon” inks replace either conventional carbon or silver inks or sputtered ITO. The main reason why NanoMarkets is so optimistic about “nano-carbon” inks is that like conventional carbon inks they can not only beat widely used materials on price, but unlike conventional carbon inks choosing nano-carbon does not involve a compromise on performance and indeed in some areas there may be reason to expect performance improvements.
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Published: May 28, 2010 Category: OLED Lighting
Although the expectations are that the OLED lighting market will eventually generate billions of dollars in annual revenue, today’s revenues from these products are miniscule. Many of the OLED lighting products that are being sold today are intended: (1) to get the message out to designers, rather than create business directly; (2) to get feedback from designers on how to improve the product; and (3) to enable luminaire and consumer products companies to create new value-added products and opportunities, thereby helping to bring into being a market for OLED lighting that has never existed before.
NanoMarkets’ latest analysis suggests that – absent any major economic crises -- the OLED lighting market will start to see a transition to “real” products during 2010. By “real” we mean products that are intended to be sold to customers other than designers/architects and not just limited editions or prototypes intended to impress the lighting community at trade shows.
What we are seeing this year is that several firms are starting to ship OLED lighting in sampling volumes. These include GE and Konica Minolta (who are in an OLED lighting partnership), LG (which may have altered its plans since the Kodak acquisition), Showa Denko and Modistech. By next year we expect the product launches to accelerate. Still even then NanoMarkets does not expect the initial volumes shipped of these products to be all that great; no more than perhaps in the hundreds or thousands per item.
And the products being sold at first will be of the luxury or specialty kind. This is because of the technical performance, high pricing and competitive realities of OLED lighting, which mean that for a few more years OLEDs will not be able to chase after the general lighting market. Instead, OLED lighting will first make its mark in areas where there is a premium for novelty and where the price sensitivity is not toogreat.
Pricing is everything, of course. At this early stage of market evolution, the price points of OLED lighting products do not come close to being competitive with conventional lighting. In the past year or so, however, several firms have announced pricing for products and in some cases have also said something about future products too.
In our most recent report on OLED lighting, we analyze these announcements in some depth. We note here, however, that the products with the greatest mindshare are “designer kits” from Philips and Osram; two of the world’s biggest lighting makers. Osram’s Orbeos product is priced at €250, while the Philips Lumiblade kit offers an OLED driver and electronics is priced at €70, with small pre-shaped OLEDs ranging from €72 to €248.
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Published: May 28, 2010 Category: Electronics and Devices
While revenues from the thin-film/printable battery market are negligible right now, NanoMarkets’ analysis believes they could reach over a $1.0 billion by 2015. However, this encouraging forecast begs the question of how battery firms can best tap into this opportunity. With this in mind, this article describes the strategies that thin-film/printable battery firms are and should adopt to penetrate their addressable markets.
The thin-film/printable battery sector continues to excite the imagination of futurists and journalists because it summons up images of an Internet-of-things, with the things in question being powered by paper-thin batteries.
This is an exciting prospect, but the realities of the thin-film/printable batteries business have so far not proved as rosy as most once hoped. Many (but by no means all) of the firms active in this space are unfunded or otherwise stretched financially. Others are prettyclose to being science projects. NanoMarkets’ estimates for this year’s revenues from thin-film/printable batteries is just under $30 million; not impressive for an industry sector that has been around for quite a few years now.
NanoMarkets recent report on this topic, however, suggests that there is considerable hope for the thin-film/printable batteries in the future. We see especially good prospects for such batteries in the sensors, smart cards and RFID sectors. However, this is a demand-side analysis and begs the question of whether, how and to what degree firms in the thin-film/printable battery space are able to design strategies to capitalize on the opportunities.
Success in the Thin-Film/Printable Battery Space: How Four Companies Define Their Strategy
A few thin-film/printable battery firms stand out, however, as having successes to date, coupled with plausible business cases and the money to make them happen. A few have even made their case forcefully enough to attract significant amounts of capital from venture capitalists and strategic investors. By “significant amounts of capital” what is meant here is tens of millions of dollars.
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Published: May 28, 2010 Category: Smart Grids
According to NanoMarkets/Smart Grid Analysis, the Smart Grid supercapacitor market will reach $3.8 billion in 2015. Today, however, the market for these systems is worth only about $0.4 billion with by far the biggest chunk of revenues coming from one specialized application, namely regenerative energy capture with load smoothing for light rail applications. Our latest report on the topic, however, suggests that new applications , especially those related to power quality and grid instability applications , are likely to be driven significantly forward by the impressive gains that Smart Grid supercapacitors have been able to achieve.
Compared with conventional capacitors, so-called supercapacitors offer much more charge to be stored per volume. This is achieved through increased electrode surface area and the addition of a liquid electrolyte. Most supercapacitors on the market today use activated carbon as the electrode material. The charge is stored via charge separation and alignment of dipoles in the electrical double layer. The thinness of this layer along with its large electrode surface area allows the super-sized capacity of supercapacitors compared to conventional capacitors. Unlike batteries, charge is separated, but no electrochemical redox reactions occur.
Although supercapacitors have been little more than a niche product for certain high-priced storage applications for a number of years, recent technology and materials improvements suggests that they will have a growing role in practical large-scale storage applications in the Smart Grid in the future. While the 100-Farad (F)-and-below-class of supercapacitors are used in many consumer applications, and are not suitable for large-scale electrical storage, the newer class of 1000 to 5000 F and above systems are being examined for possible use in large-scale grid quality and short-term UPS applications.
Supercapacitors versus Batteries
Batteries –using a variety of different technologies -- are also likely to see a growing role in the Smart Grid. They would usually have higher power densities than supercapacitors. However, supercapacitors have two advantages over batteries:
· They have very high lifecycle lifetimes; a consequence of the fact that (unlike batteries) supercapacitors have no chemistry going on. They exhibit durability through multiple charge/discharge cycles. Today’s supercapacitors are rated to last through 500,000 discharge cycles so they are essentially good for the lifetime of the storage system. Supercapacitors are also durable from the perspective that they do not have any memory effects, or issues with full or partial discharges that effect their overall service lifetime.
· Supercapacitors are extremely high energy devices that can dump the energy very quickly, allowing them to react to power dips and other stability phenomenon,
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Published: May 27, 2010 Category: Smart Grids
Until recently the response to growing electricity demand was to add more generating capacity and not worry too much about how much electricity simply vanished at the generating station or in the transmission and distribution lines. But the prospects of huge demand for electricity emanating from India and China coming will all but guarantee rising prices for electricity in the coming decade. Given this, the old slogan “too cheap to meter” could soon be replaced by new description of electricity: “too expensive not to monitor.”
The rising price of energy is not good news for most businesses. However, NanoMarkets/Smart Grid Analysis believes that one industry that should see significant revenue increases as a direct result of the “too expensive not to monitor” trend will be the sensor industry. Putting more sensors into the grid will be essential to increasing the efficiency of the electricity power infrastructure, which itself is essential at a time of long-term rising prices for electricity. In addition, more sensors help meet the growing demands from regulators and consumers for more grid reliability at a time when this reliability is challenged by everything from cyber-terrorists to the need to integrate highly fluctuating renewable energy sources.
As we see it, these new demand drivers for Smart Grid sensors are enhanced by the fact that the deployment of sensors in the grid has been notoriously lacking for many years – especially in the distribution segment – but we believe that by 2015, more than $7.5 billion in smart sensors will be sold for applications in electricity grids around of the world. And the grid sensor market will be both enabled and accelerated by the fact that – while the cost of electricity may be going up – the cost of electronic devices and RF networking interfaces to control centers – are declining in line with Moore’s Law.
So in the future we see the grid sensor business having the opportunity of not only supplying more sensors but doing so at lower prices; hence NanoMarkets/Smart Grid Analysis’ bullish forecasts for this part of the sensor industry. Moving beyond generalities, however, there are three types of sensors that we think have an especially large market potential in the future. These are dynamic line rating sensors, sensors for storage and voltage sensors that (among other purposes) provide a quantum leap up in terms of functionality from today’s grid voltage regulators.
Dynamic Line Rating Sensors: To Know it When the Wind Blows By using sensors to monitor real-time temperature, wind, voltage and current information, evidence suggests that effective transmission capacity can be increased by up to 10 to 15 percent compared to capacity planning models which dictate transmission capacity based on static worst-case weather, wind and temperature scenarios. We believe that over the next decade high voltage line temperature and weather condition sensors will be an emerging opportunity as dynamic line rating techniques become common especially on congested transmission routes. The economics of this is all to easy to understand when one considers that high-voltage AC and DC lines can cost between one and two million dollars per mile.
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Published: May 19, 2010 Category: Electronics and Devices
Published: May 05, 2010 Category: Smart Grids
The power grid transmission system is generally considered separately from both the generation systems and the distribution systems, which are closer to the customer. “Transmission” is traditionally taken to consist of the step-up transformer located near the generator, the long-distance power lines themselves, and transmission substations that connect to other utilities. Implicit in this definition is the idea that transmission systems are very much about high capacity.
The new technologies that have been brought to bear in the context of the transmission systems have therefore understandably been heavily focused on adding more capacity. These include high-voltage AC (HVAC) and high-voltage DC (HVDC) transmission systems, as well as novel conductors using composites and superconductors; and some day perhaps also carbon nanowires. Such systems are tacitly included in the Smart Grid idea.
To be truly “smart,” however, Smart Grids must add “intelligence,” by which we mean the ability to rapidly respond to changing circumstances in the grid itself and in the power generation infrastructure that feeds into it. This intelligence can be supplied in several ways, including: flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS), which are generally regarded as a core technology for the Smart Grid; and novel power electronics, which is deployed to increase both carrying capacity and rapid response to changing conditions.
We also note that, while carrying capacity of transmission lines is not “intelligence” as such, it is often a good substitute for intelligence in that a transmission system with high capacity has much wider operating margins and thus is not as vulnerable to reliability issues.
Of course, today, “intelligence” usually has something to do with IT and automation. And this is certainly the case with Smart Grid transmission, which is expected to adopt a much more sophisticated level of IT deployment than the transmission sector ever has before. Much of the electronics and software for transmission automation will be developed outside of the traditional transmission equipment sector; perhaps by entirely new companies created just for this purpose. As well, established transmission equipment companies will have to adapt their products to the new IT technology and interfaces.
While transmission equipment manufacturers must obviously take into consideration the growing “smarts” in the Smart Grid, this does not entirely represent a clear opportunity for them. It is not likely that a traditional transmission company will want to enter the communications equipment, or sensibly could. The only caveat here is that there are a handful of huge electronics firms that have served both electric and telephone companies for more than a century; Siemens and some of the large Japanese electronics firms are good examples here. The converse is also true. Many of the big companies that are entering the Smart Grid business today have communications as their core business—Cisco and Verizon, for example—but these companies clearly have no intention of getting into the transmission business as such, nor do they have the capabilities to do so.
However, despite the obvious strategic separation of transmission equipment companies from the world of communications, transmission equipment sold in the future will increasingly need to embody the interfaces and control subsystems that make Smart Grid functionality possible—potentially a market differentiating feature for them.
NanoMarkets’ Smart Grid Analysis Groupbelieves that the coming changes implied in what we have said so far will mean considerable opportunities in the Smart Grid transmission sector over the coming decade. This contrasts dramatically with what appear to be declining opportunities in the sector until very recently.
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Published: April 25, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
Electromagnetic interference (EMI) and the narrower category of radio frequency interference (RFI) have been a persistent problem in the electronics industry since the earliest days. The traditional example is the "snow" seen on analog television displays; audible static on telephones and radios is another. Such interference can also harm the operation of computers, cell phones, networks and other electronics. And as this list indicates EMI/RFI challenges (and hence opportunities) exist whether any kind of wireless communication is involved or not.
And both the challenges and opportunities have grown as the kind of systems that are impacted by EMI/RFI have proliferated. Fortunately for device manufacturers-and for the suppliers of electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) products-EMI can be shielded to prevent this performance degradation. Shielding is often as simple as surrounding sensitive components, or troublesome emitters, within a conductive box or other enclosure. The types of enclosures used include small boxes to cover parts of circuit boards, conductive dips for individual components, jacketing or conduits for wires and cabling, and the cases or outer "skins" of devices or appliances.
EMC markets are created by two separate but related goals: keeping external interference out and keeping internal signals, which could cause interference in other devices, in. Certain "high-risk" applications are particularly sensitive with regard to EMC. These include high-value manufacturing facilities, such as wafer fabs, where a high density of equipment is extremely sensitive to many factors, life-sustaining or otherwise vulnerable operations such as aircraft flight controls and hospital equipment, and high-security operations where privacy is critical and "electronic eavesdropping" must be minimized, such as banking applications and military facilities.
But by far most EMC products and materials are used in more mundane applications. Virtually all electronic devices are subject to EMC regulations and hence must demonstrate, and be built for, a minimal level of electromagnetic leakage as well as a tolerance for EMI that may come from other sources. This includes ordinary items not generally considered to emit or absorb EMI, such as household appliances. And as appliances become "smarter" in conjunction with the Smart-Grid rollouts, they will also become both more sensitive to and more likely to produce EMI.
The materials, products, and strategies used for EMC are fairly similar to those used for ESD protection to an extent. Both involve providing a measure of conductivity to the outer surface of sensitive devices or equipment, but they require different levels of conductivity. For ESD protection, charges are carried to ground and/or resistively dissipated, and can accommodate-or even require-low levels of surface conductivity. On the other hand, EMI shielding requires high mobility of the electrons in the material, meaning much higher conductivity.
This has implications for the materials used. For coatings or filled plastics, generally a much larger quantity of conductive material must be used for EMC, raising costs. And some marginally conductive materials used as fillers for ESD materials may be too resistive even in bulk to be used for EMC materials. But the higher conductivity requirements also open some new opportunities. Some filler materials can now be used more comfortably within their percolation thresholds, for instance, and metal foils and sheets become reasonable material options.
NanoMarkets believes that there are several trends occurring that are leading to important new opportunities emerging in the EMC industry. These have to do with the quantity, complexity, and use of electronic devices and the components and materials within them:
However, the opportunities that these trends present for the EMC industry are constrained by what is possible based on cost and regulatory requirements:
Because of their high conductivity, metals have historically dominated the EMC industry and they continue to dominate it. These include metal shields for circuit boards and wires, enclosures for electronic devices, and cabinets all the way up to whole rooms and even entire buildings. However, as we have already noted, there is a definite trend in reducing metals usage in manufacturing in order to reduce cost and weight. This is especially true for the largest device parts, such as the case or device enclosure.
As a result, materials firms have long been on the lookout for new materials that can generate profits for them in the EMC sector. Materials that have been tested or used in this sector include conductive polymers, TCOs, and carbon materials:
These newer materials are among the most exciting developments in a field that has been otherwise fairly mature for many years.
Published: April 01, 2010 Category:
A microgrid, as defined by the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions (CERTS), is an "aggregate of loads and micro resources operated as a single system providing heat and power and presented as a single controlled unit to the overall grid." This rather formal definition hides the fact that microgrids will be a crucial component in the trend toward distributed electricity generation that is so central to the Smart Grid concept.
The traditional grid is based on centralized generation with generating units from 10 MW to GW-scale capacity in one location (or a few locations) and distribution through high-voltage (greater than 69 kV) distribution systems. By contrast, distributed generation consists of smaller generating resources (less than 10 MW down to < 10 kW) using medium-voltage (between 1K and 69K) and low voltage (< 1K volt) distribution systems.
Not all distributed generating resources are microgrids. Many are generation resources only and never act as loads on the grid. But all microgrids are distributed resources; they are attached to the medium/low voltage distribution network and act both as generating resources and loads.
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Published: April 01, 2010 Category:
Published: March 01, 2010 Category:
Let's face it, printed electronics hasn't turned out the way we all hoped. Just a few years ago the market was talking itself into a frenzy--sharing fantasies of those majestic R2R fabs churning out organic RFID tags and display backplanes with the speed of the New York Times coming off the presses. Seems rather silly in retrospect.
The dirty little secret here is that technology revolutions always begin with more hype than substance and in the absence of market reality. During such giddy periods, forecasted growth rates that are anything less than high double digits are usually greeted with calls skepticism. So even if the entire world economy hadn't decided to take a southward trend, printed electronics was fated to get a massive dose of reality.
And that massive dose of reality is now being force-fed to the market. If one accepts the traditional thick-film business, which is more like coating than printing and isn't usually counted as printed electronics anyway, the current status of printed electronics is distinctly niche-like. Our Google Alerts for both "printed electronics" and "printable electronics" never turn up much of interest these days--a few unimpressive corporate announcements here; a few academic projects there; a lot of discussion still about how to build. Unfortunately, this meager level of activity reveals that after years of talk, there is still not a lot to be excited about when it comes to PE.
What to do? A post mortem may conclude that most advocates of printed electronics knew/know little about printing and therefore had unrealistic expectations of what could be achieved and in what timeframe. Another conclusion is that it is easy to talk about what happens in the lab or to deliver Power Point slides and industry "conferences." But delivering products that people will pay for is what really counts. Technologies need applications to propel them into the mainstream.
However, the recognition that hubris, exuberance or naiveté in varying degrees have been involved here doesn't address the issues surrounding how we achieve something approaching legitimate industry status. Post mortems tell us where we have been, not where we are going.
Another response is to argue that if a lack of realism got us into this mess, it's high time that we applied some more realistic thinking to printed electronics. This thought was expressed in a recent industry press release, which made a plea for abandoning grand visions in favor of focusing on "finding the best way of doing things."
Finding a better way of doing things points us in the direction of successes and potential successes for printed electronics. Two examples spring to mind: the use of printed nanosilver to create fine traces in miniaturized PCBs and printing nanosilicon layers on silicon substrates to produce PV cells with improved performance. And, there are certainly plenty of other examples of where printing can be used effectively in electronics, where printing's unique ability to combine patterning and deposition along with low costs is appropriate to the task.
But, technical realism of this kind can also produce some pretty disappointing answers to the vital question as to how long we have to wait before printed electronics is more than just a collection of little projects in industrial laboratories and small tactical maneuvers on production lines. When will printed electronics become an industry?
At the end of the press release referred to above, comes one answer: ten years it says. One can almost hear the writers' sighs of resignation.
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Published: March 01, 2010 Category:
A microgrid, as defined by the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions (CERTS), is an "aggregate of loads and micro resources operated as a single system providing heat and power and presented as a single controlled unit to the overall grid." This rather formal definition hides the fact that microgrids will be a crucial component in the trend toward distributed electricity generation that is so central to the Smart Grid concept.
The traditional grid is based on centralized generation with generating units from 10 MW to GW-scale capacity in one location (or a few locations) and distribution through high-voltage (greater than 69 kV) distribution systems. By contrast, distributed generation consists of smaller generating resources (less than 10 MW down to < 10 kW) using medium-voltage (between 1K and 69K) and low voltage (< 1K volt) distribution systems.
Not all distributed generating resources are microgrids. Many are generation resources only and never act as loads on the grid. But all microgrids are distributed resources; they are attached to the medium/low voltage distribution network and act both as generating resources and loads.
The microgrid concept itself is not especially new. However, NanoMarkets/Smart Grid Analysis believes that microgrids present an important new business potential due to the confluence of their ability to supply some of the most prized advantages associated with Smart Grids and the appearance of certain enabling technologies that make microgrids possible. These are identified below.
The appearance of low-cost computing, sensors and wireless communications networks over the last ten to fifteen years is the key enabler that makes microgrids such an attractive means to increase grid capacity and functionality. This new technology we believe is putting microgrids on a path to become "plug-and-play" elements of the grid within the next few years. Control of local microgrids with low-cost wireless sensors and communications as well as the incorporation of local storage provides the means for high reliability/high quality power solutions that surpass the reliability of the best centralized generation and can approach those of UPS solutions.
This high reliability is due to both the compact size and the local nature of microgrid distribution networks, close proximity between source and load and the inclusion of electrical storage to serve both as a source to level loads and peak shave, but also as a means to smooth any transient instability in the microgrid. These new lower cost electronics also allow "intelligent islanding" of the microgrid to disengage when power quality is low or prices are high, and to reengage when the "macrogrid" price is low.
As a result of all this, NanoMarkets/Smart Grid Analysis believes that microgrids present major opportunities throughout the world, but these opportunities also seem to vary by geography.
In the established continental grids of North America and Europe, the costs of centralized generation are increasing, microgrid costs are decreasing and the demand for power quality applications that are better served by microgrids is rising. The potential of microgrids in these areas is to increase the use of distributed resources, which will boost capacity, reliability, and security, as well as incorporate renewable resources such as wind and solar into the overall grid. This opportunity is already being pursued in some countries such as Denmark.
Microgrids improve power quality: The main near-term driver for microgrids in regions with established grids is to significantly improve power quality. The increased reliance on electricity for key mission-critical applications is now at a point where the power quality needs for such applications exceed the ability of centralized generation to deliver the required power quality. Power quality has been static for several decades and is predicted by some to even begin deteriorating slightly as demand continues to increase, while supply and distribution remain stagnant.
The traditional centralized generation/distribution strategy maxes out in reliability at between 3- and 4-nines reliability or somewhere on average of about 1-9 hrs of disruption per year. While this has been acceptable for most applications in the past, the increasing reliance on "always on" mission-critical electrical gear and the damage to gear due to power surges/spikes associated with outages make this level of reliability unacceptable for many applications going into the future.
By moving to a microgrid deployment strategy with local generating and distribution resources that can island themselves seamlessly from the greater grid, the reliability can be increased from 3- to 4-nines (1-9 hrs/outage per year) to 6- to 7-nines (3 to 30 seconds/year). With the addition of electrical storage, which is an essential component of most microgrids, the reliability for the most critical applications can be increased further, to up to 9-nines (30 ms/year).
Microgrid deployment in the U.S. and Europe: In the U.S., several large pilot demonstration projects are already underway. The following projects all have active microgrid demonstration programs in place: Chevron Energy, Consolidated Edison (New York), ATK Space Systems, Illinois Institute of Technology, the City of Fort Collins, Colorado, San Diego Gas and Power, and the University of Las Vegas-Nevada. These demonstration projects contain the elements of local generation, intelligent self-islanding, and local storage and demand response capabilities. Depending on the exact goals, they also incorporate high levels of wind and solar and/or combined heat and power.
Europe is also active in microgrid development. Serious work on microgrids in Europe started earlier than in the U.S. for two major reasons:
Currently, eleven European countries are operating microgrid projects. But Denmark is the leader in distributed generation. The best known of the true microgrid demonstrations in Denmark is the Bornholm Island microgrid. It serves 28,000 customers, provides over 55 MW of peak power, and incorporates 30 MW of wind power. The microgrid is connected to a high power node in Sweden and is able to successfully island off from the overall grid when power quality is low.
A smaller but high-growth application of microgrids is in true "island" grids, which either do not connect or are designed for sustained periods of independent service. Thus, the U.S. military and many remote industrial and residential areas are relatively small markets, but microgrid growth in these areas is projected to be brisk over the next eight years.
Near term applications for "island microgrids" include:
A key for all of these applications is the ability to island themselves from the grid within one-quarter cycle to maintain load integrity within the microgrid and provide quality unattainable in traditional grids.
The final area is in remote locations (industrial, remote town, and military), where the falling cost of microgrids and storage capacity, and the emerging ability to seamlessly integrate wind and solar into such grids makes microgrids viable in a way that was not possible even 10 years ago.
In less-developed grid regions, political instability and inadequate capital mechanisms have prevented advanced centralized grids from developing. The demand for microgrid is increasing in such areas, enabling electrification where it was not previously possible.
Microgrids in emerging regions seem to be the most economical method available for implementing rural electrification.
Published: March 01, 2010 Category:
The OLED lighting market has evolved over the past four years from just a minor spinoff of the OLED display industry to an industry in its own right. In fact, the business prospects for OLED lighting now seem to be looking better and better, while those of OLED displays are questionable. The hope was that OLED displays would quickly break out from their early market in the mobile sub-displays and MP3 players. Instead, OLEDs have moved only slowly into the mobile main display market and have fizzled out for the time being in the TV market. An inability to compete with LCD and technical difficulties with active matrix (AM) LCD displays have made OLED displays something less of an opportunity than display makers once hoped.
By contrast, OLED lighting has a lot of drivers in its favor. Most impressively, while OLED displays must battle an entrenched technology (LCD), the lighting market is much more open to OLED penetration by a new technology. Incandescent bulbs are being phased out on environmental and energy efficiency grounds in the U.S. and Europe, so the major rival to any new general lighting technology is going to disappear courtesy of government regulation. In addition, government energy and other policies supply funding for development of advanced lighting technology. No government is going to insist that LCD displays should be phased out. Nor are they going to overtly subsidize OLED displays.
We also note that OLED lighting has important advantages over OLED displays as a pure business proposition, regulatory considerations aside. For a start, all of the technical difficulties that have plagued AMOLED displays disappear for OLED lighting; lighting fixtures do not have backplanes in the sense that displays do. And lighting is likely to involve a lot more OLEDs measured in square meters. Most OLED displays are very small and seem likely to stay that way. Lights, especially panels for general lighting applications, are intrinsically large and likely to stay that way. As a result, if OLED lighting takes off in the marketplace it could swamp OLED displays in terms of market size.
OLED lighting also has less to worry about from lighting technologies other than incandescent lamps. Fluorescent lighting, especially in the form of compact lamps (CFLs), is an immediate challenge to OLED lighting, but CFLs use mercury, which detracts from their green image garnered because of their energy efficiency. Perhaps even more importantly, the color quality from CFLs is not usually regarded as very attractive; we expect consumers to miss the warm light associated with incandescents.
The likelihood is then that CFLs will prove to be an interim product and that there will be a transition to solid-state lighting (SSL), which can combine many of the aesthetic virtues of incandescent lights (while adding a few of their own) with a green image. SSL, strictly speaking, includes traditional electroluminescent (EL) lighting as well as OLED lighting and high-brightness LED lighting. However, EL lighting shows few real prospects for significant growth and will probably lose ground to OLEDs, which are in effect a very advanced version of EL lighting.
All this leaves the likelihood of a future lighting market in which OLED lighting will have to compete primarily with HB-LED lighting. It is certainly true that at this point in time HB-LED technology is more advanced than OLED technology. Nonetheless, HB-LED technology effectively has a zero share of the general lighting market, which means that OLEDs will not compete with HB-LED in the way that they have to compete with LCDs in the display industry. In any case, an argument is made that OLEDs and HB-LEDs are as much complementary as competitive, with OLEDs (which are panels) serving the role of flood lights of a sort, and HB-LEDs (which are point sources) serving the role of spot lights.
Until 2009, talk of the OLED lighting market consisted mostly of important R&D projects and speculation about the future. There were clearly many firms that had a strong interest in OLED lighting, but it was hard to pin down their strategic direction or their level of commitment. However, in 2009 the first OLED products hit the market and 2010 will see a lot more. Certainly, the future structure of the OLED lighting industry of the future is far from clear and - at least publicly - firms are not yet making real business cases for OLED lighting; the business enthusiasm for OLED lighting is more intuitive and PR oriented. Nor is any firm investing very large sums of money in the OLED lighting market, as yet, even those that could easily do so.
Nevertheless, the OLED industry is beginning to take shape and it is now possible to write something of a "who's who" of the OLED industry, identifying who is producing what and in collaboration with who, what they plan to do in the future and when.
Who are the OLED lighting players? With regard to the emerging structure of the OLED lighting space we believe that current players fall into seven major categories. These are shown in Exhibit 1-1.
The structure revealed in Exhibit 1-1 is also probably fairly indicative of how the OLED lighting industry will turn out in the long run with regard to structure. There will be the big three lighting firms, without whose influence it is unlikely the OLED lighting market could ever move beyond niche markets. Most of the other firms of importance in the OLED lighting space will then fall into two major categories. These are: Firms primarily focused on OLEDs and see OLED lighting as a specific opportunity among other applications in which they can use their OLEDs; or firms further up the supply chain that can see a business case to be made for including OLEDs in the luminaire or consumer products.
As to the materials firms, their current involvement is not yet indicative of a strategic commitment to pursue the OLED lighting opportunity. This could change in time and presumably will if and when OLED lighting markets take off. As Exhibit 1-1 shows, there are also several firms that are directly involved in OLED lighting, but with a special kind of lighting - e.g., backlighting or replacement for EL lighting - especially in mind.
What OLED products are being sold today: At present, OLED lighting products seem to fall into three categories:
OLED lighting designer kits. These provide some small OLEDs and the necessary electronics for designers to make their own OLED products. As such, they serve as a channel to get the OLED lighting concept out, not so much to the general public, but rather to the design and luminaire community without whom OLED lighting will never take off. Philips was the first company to offer such a designer kit, but others have followed.
Prototypes for demos and trade shows. These aren't really products at all, of course, in the sense that they are not for sale. However, there are a growing number of such prototypes being demonstrated at lighting industry shows and similar events. Some of these prototypes will eventually become real products; others are just to show off what can be done using specific technologies, OLED structures or materials.
Luxury lamps and consumer products. The archetype of this kind of product is the Ingo Maurer lamp that was being sold by Osram and may have been the first value-added product to include an OLED light. This product was prohibitively expensive and sold in very limited quantities - a collectors' item really. However, the consensus is that for the next few years OLED lighting will be used in such high-value luxury lighting or consumer items to justify the current cost of the panels.
What OLED lighting products will emerge after 2013:
We believe that the first two of the categories listed above will decline in relative terms as the OLED lighting market matures, although they are unlikely to disappear entirely. For the next three to five years most of the revenues will be generated by the third of these product categories (luxury items). However, by 2013 or 2014 or so, we expect a new category of OLED lighting products to begin to emerge, one that could compete with run-of-the-mill general lighting products.
Such a product would have to be low cost, and/or would have to be marketed in a way that effectively sold the idea of total cost of ownership. To produce such a product would almost certainly need a roll-to-roll (R2R) processing plant and we note that many firms are already looking at ways to create such facilities.
Eventually, this new kind of OLED "lamp" will account for the bulk of revenues from OLED lighting. But the consensus is that such products will not really have much impact on the market until 2014 at the earliest. Other kinds of OLED lighting are expected to appear within this time too. These include some kind of OLED backlights, although some question whether OLED lights will ever have the luminance to serve as a backlight for a high-quality OLED display. There are also a number of specialty lighting applications - in medicine and vehicles - where OLED lighting could find a useful business case.
Published: March 01, 2010 Category: OLED Lighting
OLED lighting appears to be moving into the product phase - major OLED and lighting firms are starting to reveal how they plan to bring OLED lighting to market and what their longer-term product and market strategies will be.
The OLED lighting market has evolved over the past four years from just a minor spinoff of the OLED display industry to an industry in its own right. In fact, the business prospects for OLED lighting now seem to be looking better and better, while those of OLED displays are questionable. The hope was that OLED displays would quickly break out from their early market in the mobile sub-displays and MP3 players. Instead, OLEDs have moved only slowly into the mobile main display market and have fizzled out for the time being in the TV market. An inability to compete with LCD and technical difficulties with active matrix (AM) LCD displays have made OLED displays something less of an opportunity than display makers once hoped.
By contrast, OLED lighting has a lot of drivers in its favor. Most impressively, while OLED displays must battle an entrenched technology (LCD), the lighting market is much more open to OLED penetration by a new technology. Incandescent bulbs are being phased out on environmental and energy efficiency grounds in the U.S. and Europe, so the major rival to any new general lighting technology is going to disappear courtesy of government regulation. In addition, government energy and other policies supply funding for development of advanced lighting technology. No government is going to insist that LCD displays should be phased out. Nor are they going to overtly subsidize OLED displays.
We also note that OLED lighting has important advantages over OLED displays as a pure business proposition, regulatory considerations aside. For a start, all of the technical difficulties that have plagued AMOLED displays disappear for OLED lighting; lighting fixtures do not have backplanes in the sense that displays do. And lighting is likely to involve a lot more OLEDs measured in square meters. Most OLED displays are very small and seem likely to stay that way. Lights, especially panels for general lighting applications, are intrinsically large and likely to stay that way. As a result, if OLED lighting takes off in the marketplace it could swamp OLED displays in terms of market size.
OLED lighting also has less to worry about from lighting technologies other than incandescent lamps. Fluorescent lighting, especially in the form of compact lamps (CFLs), is an immediate challenge to OLED lighting, but CFLs use mercury, which detracts from their green image garnered because of their energy efficiency. Perhaps even more importantly, the color quality from CFLs is not usually regarded as very attractive; we expect consumers to miss the warm light associated with incandescents.
The likelihood is then that CFLs will prove to be an interim product and that there will be a transition to solid-state lighting (SSL), which can combine many of the aesthetic virtues of incandescent lights (while adding a few of their own) with a green image. SSL, strictly speaking, includes traditional electroluminescent (EL) lighting as well as OLED lighting and high-brightness LED lighting. However, EL lighting shows few real prospects for significant growth and will probably lose ground to OLEDs, which are in effect a very advanced version of EL lighting.
All this leaves the likelihood of a future lighting market in which OLED lighting will have to compete primarily with HB-LED lighting. It is certainly true that at this point in time HB-LED technology is more advanced than OLED technology. Nonetheless, HB-LED technology effectively has a zero share of the general lighting market, which means that OLEDs will not compete with HB-LED in the way that they have to compete with LCDs in the display industry. In any case, an argument is made that OLEDs and HB-LEDs are as much complementary as competitive, with OLEDs (which are panels) serving the role of flood lights of a sort, and HB-LEDs (which are point sources) serving the role of spot lights.
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Published: February 01, 2010 Category: Smart Grids
High-temperature superconductor (HTS) cables can carry an order of magnitude greater power than traditional cabling and conduct electricity at near zero resistance. Smart Grid Analysis believes there is considerable potential for this new type of cabling to be deployed in the power grid to increase grid capacity, integrate renewable energy, and enhance reliability and security, all key requirements of the Smart Grid vision.
Despite this potential, the future of superconductors in the grid is uncertain and will depend on several factors, most importantly the continuation of subsidies and technical improvements in the superconductors themselves.
The huge increase in carrying capacity that superconductors can provide to the power companies is well illustrated by a project in New Orleans, where HTS cable is being used to address power supply constraints affecting the Metairie area--a densely built residential neighborhood. As larger homes rapidly replace older, smaller ones in this neighborhood, power demand is increasing and stretching existing distribution capacity to its limit.
The conventional solution here would be for the utility to bring in a 230 kV line and build a complete new substation, involving significant investment and time. Instead, 13.8 kilovolt superconducting cable will connect two existing substation sites in greater New Orleans creating a "virtual substation." This is the kind of situation that many power companies will face in the next decade and we therefore believe that it will create a major opportunity for superconducting cable in the future.
Smart Grid Analysis believes that this opportunity is enhanced by the fact that in many areas where new facilities might have to be built, there is little room to do so. In the Resilient Electric Grid (REG) program, also known as Project Hydra, the high power density of superconductors allows them to fit in available underground real estate in the dense urban area of Manhattan.
The high capacity of superconducting cables also suggests that they can usefully serve as "trunking" for interconnecting substations and formerly separate grids. We believe that demand for this enhanced architecture is likely to emerge from the power companies for at least two reasons: (1) it makes the grid more resilient and facilitates load sharing, because power can be transferred between regions and locations when outages occur; and (2) it allows large amounts of intermittent power generated by renewable energy sources (especially wind) to be transferred between regions. Power generated by wind turbines can now be used in urban areas.
With regard to (1), we note that ConEd expects Project Hydra to improve reliability by allowing the utility to re-route load from one part of the grid to another in an emergency. This obviously speaks to important needs in a world in which major outages in large cities throughout the world have been on the increase and threats to the grid from terrorists and hackers have become a significant concern of government.
Superconductors can also address the reliability and security issue through superconductor-based fault current limiters (FCLs). When FCLs sense a fault current, they prevent a large increase in the electrical flow, choking off a potentially damaging electrical spike (thereby preventing cascading failures) while allowing normal current to pass through unimpeded. Several companies have already built and delivered superconducting FCLs; they are used in Project Hydra, for example.
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Published: February 01, 2010 Category: Renewable Energy
The photovoltaics industry will need to remake itself in the post-recession era. The days of hyper-growth are gone for now and at NanoMarkets we believe that the industry will increasingly face a new set of challenges that two years ago would have been glossed over as "nothing much to worry about." Three looming problems that NanoMarkets' sees as particularly serious for the industry are: (1) commoditization, (2) building aesthetics, and (3) costs of PV to consumers.
Nonetheless, NanoMarkets' research into the potential of building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) also suggests that BIPV deployed as a marketing strategy might be a partial solution for panel makers to the problems listed above. As such, the three problems listed above might also be thought of as drivers for the BIPV market which, we believe, could reach as high as $6.1 billion by 2016.
Solar panels are not complex appliances or machines. The primary non-price concerns that the end user has with panels is with their longevity and efficiency. Both of these factors are largely determined by the core materials used, and these materials are freely available to all PV cell and panel makers. Manufacturers can alter performance parameters through their choice of manufacturing platform, but in the end user market there is no easy way for a panel maker to differentiate itself by advertising, for example, that its panels are half of one percent more efficient than its closest rival's.
While a strong branding program can help here, BIPV also offers a way forward. BIPV products that combine the properties and functions of conventional building materials with those of PV modules potentially create a whole universe of new PV product possibilities including solar shingles, and solar cladding. Such products coupled with the future possibilities of windows and curtains that are also PV panels suggest roadmaps for PV products that are a lot more diverse than roadmaps for grid-connected PV of a year or so back.
In these earlier roadmaps, future products were largely categorized by longer lifetimes and higher efficiencies. By contrast, BIPV suggests entirely new products that can be pushed into the supply chain as well as establish a brand image. This supply chain may also become more nuanced. For example, manufacturing firms may supply the completed integrated BIPV product; shingles or metal roofing sheets with embedded PV laminates, for example. Or they may simply supply the PV laminates themselves, to be adhesively bonded to conventional building materials, by some other firm closer in the supply chain to the customer. This second firm might be an established building products firm, or it might even be the general contractor since adhesive-backed flexible PV laminates can be adhered to any number of conventional building material products, even on a construction site.
The aesthetics of renewable energy infrastructure becomes more of an issue as renewables become more common. Early adopters of PV have been PV-technology enthusiasts or those seeking to make a political statement. They have not typically been those concerned with aesthetics. In the future, the appearance of a building that uses PV will become more important to the PV industry as more typical building owners enter into the market. And here, the inconvenient truth is that a PV panel is not a thing of beauty.
This is an architectural problem for PV, but one with which BIPV can help. BIPV yields the benefits of improved appearance and architecture since the PV system is visibly and structurally integrated into the building surfaces and materials, rather than being mounted on racks that do not blend well with the building structure.
BIPV can therefore reposition PV for consumers from a technology that makes political statements to one that makes architectural statements. We believe that there are a lot more consumers who would rather do the latter than the former. In addition, BIPV is well suited to be incorporated into upscale homes as a selling feature, much in the way that fiber-to-the-home communications did in its early days, where this was promoted as a plus by realtors selling homes in expensive developments.
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Published: February 01, 2010 Category:
Over the past two decades, more accurate, convenient and earlier diagnoses have become a key strategy to reduce medical costs. This trend toward improved diagnostic technology will only grow in importance in the future as the first Baby Boomers turn seventy (in 2011) and as millions of people in less-developed nations begin to utilize more Western healthcare technology as their countries grow richer. In addition, healthcare experts have come to believe that diagnoses are most effectively delivered if they are made as close to the patient as possible. A quick read of a patient's condition at his or her bedside is preferred over a test sent to a lab that may take critical hours or days to interpret.
All this implies that the market for point-of-care and home diagnostic products will expand over the next few years. In our recently published report on printed and large-area sensors, NanoMarkets examined how low-cost printing technologies can help diagnostics respond to the trends outlined above. The path toward this goal of printed sensors has already been forged in the area of self-testing for diabetics, where printed test strips have helped bring accurate digital diagnostics to the tens of millions of diabetics throughout the world.
These printed test strips are an important market in their own right. NanoMarkets estimates that they will generate about $2.4 billion in revenues in 2010. The hope that printing holds out, however, is for lower costs for much more complex diagnostic products, especially those based on genomics and proteomics--two scientific areas that will likely be at the core of diagnostics in the future.
Genetic testing in particular is already a major component of personalized medicine, itself one of the big medical hopes for the future and certainly one of the most discussed. (The Director of the National Institutes of Health just wrote a book on the topic.) Genetic testing and personalized medicine are linked because, without a good take on a person's genetic makeup, it is hard to create a therapeutic and illness avoidance program that is specifically tailored to their needs. New kinds of medical testing requirements are also likely to emerge, since the emphasis is now shifting from DNA to proteins. That is, the genomics era is already making way for the era of proteomics; it is proteins and not genes that are the majority of the true drug targets.
Yet, to date personalized medicine has failed to take off in the manner that has been predicted by its fiercest advocates. One reason is that genetic testing is still a relatively expensive procedure. Indeed, this point can be made about sophisticated diagnostic tools in general. To bring these to the patient's bedside or into their home will take significant cost reductions. We believe that printed electronics, or more accurately functional printing, can help cope with this cost constraint. Specifically, NanoMarkets sees three main opportunities for printed electronics/functional printing in this regard. These are: (1) printing electrodes; (2) printing biological materials; and (3) using functional printing technologies to create large-area diagnostic biosensors.
The opportunity that diagnostics presents most immediately for printed electronics is the creation of low-cost electrode layers for diagnostic biosensors. In fact, companies are already doing this, often using screen printing. There is nothing spectacularly novel about fabricating electrodes using printing. In many areas of electronics, screen printing has been used to create electrodes for decades. As such, biosensors represent a new, potentially high-volume market for a range of existing products and procedures, most notably the broad range of conductive inks that are available from several well-established suppliers.
There are a few aspects of electrodes for diagnostic biosensors that make this opportunity a little different from say the use of screen printing to create electrodes in a membrane switch for a kitchen appliance. Biosensors (by contrast to the switch) are high-performance devices that may therefore require electrodes with high levels of conductivity. With this in mind, NanoMarkets believes that, diagnostic biosensors may well serve as a good market for the new breed of nanoparticulate conductive inks that have emerged in the past few years and which offer higher conductivity than the old-style thick-film metallic pastes. We also note that while other biosensors tend to use silver or carbon electrodes, gold is often the electrode material-of-choice in medical devices.
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Published: February 01, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
Touch-screen displays, a target for the ITO-alternatives business for a few years now, were singled out as a special opportunity for ITO alternatives because of their particular vulnerability to ITO's tendency to crack. Polymers and nanomaterials, which are much more flexible than ITO, have been presented as ITO alternatives that do not crack. And while most ITO alternatives currently are not as transparent or as conductive as ITO, this fact may be outweighed by the non-cracking capability of these alternatives for certain applications.
The cracking problem is most relevant in the case of analog resistive touch-screen technology in which touch is sensed by moving ITO sensors. Over time, sometimes over an unacceptably short period of time, this movement causes ITO cracking. Other types of touch-screen displays are less vulnerable to the cracking problem, but until recently virtually all touch-screen displays used analog resistive technology.
The arrival of Apple's iPhone (and now the Apple iPad) has changed the opportunity space for transparent conductors in the touch-screen display market in several ways. Most obviously, Apple has made touch mainstream. Touch-screen technology in one form or another has been around for about five decades, but has never taken off as a versatile mainstream input technology for computing. That this is changing rapidly is evidenced by the number of touch-driven tablet computers that appeared at the recent Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.
More touch-screen displays, of course, means that more transparent conducting material will be used for touch sensing subsystems. However, the "touch revolution" that the iPhone set off was not with analog resistive technology, but instead with projected capacitive touch technology mainly because it offers the multi-touch capability that analog resistive technology does not. But ITO is used in projected capacitive in quite a different way from the manner it is utilized in analog resistive, one where cracking is less of an issue. Projected capacitive technology operates with the user interacting with an electrical field and the ITO layers do not have to bend.
Thus, the rise of projected capacitive technology at the expense of analog resistive technology means that it is harder to make the case for ITO alternatives. Although analog resistive technology continues to be widely used, "crackability" is just that much less of an issue.
In addition to the improvements that ITO alternatives can make with regard to the worrisome physical properties of ITO, their other claim to fame is that they are less expensive than ITO and also less subject to price fluctuations. ITO suffers in this area because its price is very much tied to the price of indium. To the extent that display makers have gone with alternatives to ITO, it has usually been because of price issues.
The cost advantage of ITO applies to all kinds of displays, not just touch displays, but in the current market environment, touch-screen display makers have special reasons to be concerned about the price of ITO.
First, ITO is used in most (but not all) touch-screen technologies. (There are now almost 20 kinds of touch-screen technologies; analog resistive and projected capacitive are by no means the only ones.) This means that each touch-screen display generally uses more ITO than a regular LCD screen; ITO is used in the LCD display and in the touch sensor. Because of this extra use ITO pricing is more important in touch screens than in regular displays.
Secondly, the goal of the touch-screen display industry is now to take this technology, which until recently has mostly been associated with kiosks and ATM machines, into computers, appliances, automation controls, etc. For this to happen, that is for touch-screen technology to become ubiquitous, the premium paid for a touch display over a similar device without touch must be minimal. The high cost of ITO is therefore an obstacle to this goal.
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Published: February 01, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials Electronics and Devices
While the market for electrostatic discharge (ESD) coatings, materials, and devices is growing with the proliferation of electronic devices and components, an even more exciting development is the introduction of new, high-tech materials into the ESD marketplace. In addition to the "old guard" of antistatic materials--metals, ITO and other metal oxides, carbon black- and carbon fiber-filled composites, and organic materials such as amines, amides, and esters--we can now add more advanced materials like nanoparticles of metals and metal oxides, carbon nanotubes and graphene, and conductive polymers like PEDOT:PSS. These newer materials introduce new capabilities for improved performance, reduced material usage, and greater ease of ESD protection that will bring new life into a mature industry. These are the new face of ESD materials and will account for a rapidly growing share of this market.
There is a diverse range of ESD products but many of them can be categorized by their function. These include: packaging products, including bags, totes, and shipping containers that protect sensitive devices contained within them; products designed to create a static-free local environment, such as flooring, mats, furniture, and clothing; and coatings and other shielding designed to provide permanent protection of an enclosed or covered device. There are also additives for fuels and other fluids, ionizing devices designed to neutralize static charges on demand, devices for monitoring ESD protection, and more mundane devices like grounding cables.
Within these functions, ESD protection can be divided into two different, but often complementary, goals. One goal is to eliminate static charges when they occur. This can be done simply by rapidly conducting them to ground or, often more effectively, by dissipating the charges, or "inefficiently" conducting them to ground, converting much of the electrical energy to heat in the process. The other goal is to prevent the generation of static charges in the first place. Static charges are often generated by the triboelectric effect, simply by rubbing or separating surfaces, which causes the transfer of electrons. This triboelectric generation is common with typical plastics, glass, and other insulating materials; antistatic materials are designed to be less prone to it.
Generally, the most sensitive ESD applications are those involving direct contact with sensitive electronic components, and these are typically in electronics manufacturing and assembly operations. ESD protection is an integral part of the design of every piece of equipment or other part of a wafer fab, for instance, and is of paramount importance in circuit board and device assembly and in the handling of electronic components. The ESD products used in these environments add up quickly. At the wafer fab level, millions of square feet of fab flooring are used in addition to the containers for the wafers, the tools handling them, and the garments for the workers. And at the assembly level, the ESD products add up similarly, but now include ESD bags and other packaging materials for components and boards. Even the smallest PC upgrade outlets must use an ESD system, including an ESD-protected work area, ESD bags, and grounding of the workers, to minimize component and device damage due to ESD.
As the most sensitive devices shrink to smaller circuit dimensions and lower operating voltages, they also become increasingly sensitive to ESD. Combined with the growth in the number of devices, especially handheld devices like mobile phones and music players, ESD requirements will grow along with the volume of these products, yet face increasingly more demanding performance requirements and rising cost sensitivity.
Beyond these products, which are designed to protect electronic components, there are also others, many used outside the electronics industry. Grounding and antistatic systems for fuel pumps and airline fuel delivery systems, including antistatic additives widely used in jet fuel, are another important application area, the main focus of which is on preventing fires rather than on damaging electronic components. Here, volumes of ESD products are likely to be impacted more by changes in regulatory requirements than by the competing, gradual trends of increasing numbers of fuel-burning vehicles and increasing fuel efficiency.
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Published: February 01, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials
Lawrence Gasman
Principal Analyst
NanoMarkets LC
The products that today account for most of the silver paste and inks consumed are not exactly the "hot" items of the electronics and electrical industry. Traditional capacitor and printed circuit board (PCB) markets grow at the same rate as the economy. Membrane switches are not as ubiquitous as they once were; we think they may see serious competition from touch screens in the future. Plasma displays continue to sell, but the PDP era will eventually pass and take with it the substantial silver paste orders, which certain major suppliers have counted on for a decade.
There are a few firms in the silver pastes business, Henkel and DuPont would be the obvious examples, that could probably make money in this space simply by milking the cash cow; that is, leveraging their established market positions, dialing back on marketing and relying on customers to come to them.
But having covered silver inks and pastes in our industry analyst reports for the last four years, NanoMarkets' analysts do not think we've reached the time yet for such desperate measures. In fact, we see a series of markets where we expect sales of silver inks and pastes to do quite well over the next few years. This article, which draws on NanoMarkets' ongoing research in this area, briefly profiles four of them.
Energy storage: It has been suggested that the use of silver nanopastes for creating electrodes for multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) would lead to improved performance. But there may be a bigger opportunity emerging for silver in energy storage. There seems to be a growing role for supercapacitors in vehicles, consumer electronics, Smart Grid metering and the renewable energy sector. There are alternatives to using silver in supercapacitors, but printed silver's established role in the capacitor business will give it a leg up as the supercapacitor business rolls forward.
Novel display technologies: LCD displays with silicon TFT backplanes don't use much silver and they are likely to remain the dominant display technology for years to come. Nonetheless, in the past year or so, new display technologies that use, or are highly likely to use, printed silver have begun to appear as real products in the marketplace.
During 2009, OLED TVs appeared on the market for the first time. But the year of the worst recession in living memory was not the best year to start selling TVs retailing for several thousand dollars. We don't doubt that OLED TVs will be resurrected and when they do they may have an important use for silver. The experience with large OLED panels is that long passes of current through transparent conductors result in voltage drops that appear visibly as dimmed portions of the OLED. Distances of more than 10 cm or so between electrical connections can be problematic. Using silver (probably nanosilver inks) for printing bus bars at appropriate intervals enables larger OLEDs (ones suitable for TVs) without the dimming problem.
Silver may also have a growing role as an electrode material. For OLEDs, both big ones and small ones this time, silver would have an advantage over the conventional cathode materials such as calcium, which are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions. At least one OLED firm is using printed silver for this application, but how far this approach can penetrate the OLED industry remains an open question.
Perhaps a bigger opportunity lies in backplane electrodes. Silver has been the favored electrode material for organic TFTs (OTFTs) in the lab and the first commercial display with an OTFT backplane (in the Plastic Logic QUE e-book reader) will hit the market this year, suggesting that this lab scale use for silver is about to become a volume application.
Solid-state lighting: Both U.S. and European energy efficiency legislation effectively bans the use of conventional incandescent light bulbs after 2012 or so. The immediate successor to these bulbs will be fluorescent lighting technology, but the use of mercury, quality of light and other factors imply that fluorescent will also eventually go away. The future belongs to solid-state lighting or more specifically inorganic LED and OLED lighting. OLED lighting panels, a business that NanoMarkets believes will soon be much larger than the OLED display market, will likely also require silver bus bars to create an even lighting effect.
Next-generation PCBs: A key trend in the PCB industry suggests another place where printed silver, especially printed nanosilver, may well find an opportunity. This trend is miniaturization. The miniaturization of electronic products continues to drive printed circuit board manufacturing toward smaller and more densely packed boards with increased electronic capabilities. In turn, PCB makers want to print very fine features via inkjet or other direct-write approaches. Another motivation for using printed silver in the PCB application is as a way to replace expensive/wasteful processes such as photolithography/etching, which are widely used in PCB manufacture. Finally, although silver inks will clearly have to compete with copper inks in this application, silver's higher effective conductivity would be regarded as an advantage where only fine lines were possible.
No one is seriously looking to the silver pastes and inks market for the next Microsoft, Cisco or Google. But the developments and trends analyzed above indicate that it is still possible to find new opportunities for silver inks and pastes. These opportunities are big enough apparently for start-up companies to receive funding in this space and for Xerox to announce with much fanfare last fall that it had developed a silver ink that cures at a low temperature and which would "push printed electronics towards ubiquity."
We also note that while other electronic materials, such as ITO, face a long-term threat from alternative materials promising improved performance, quantum mechanics assures us that silver is the best conductor there is.
Published: January 27, 2010 Category: Smart Grids
Published: January 27, 2010 Category: Smart Grids
Published: January 01, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy
Thin-film silicon (TF Si) photovoltaics has been around for a long time, but went through boom times during a period when there wasn't enough crystalline silicon to satisfy demand by the PV industry; TF Si uses about one-hundredth the amount of silicon used by crystalline silicon PV. The most mature of the TFPV technologies, TF Si currently accounts for about 43 percent of the TFPV market.
But now that the silicon shortage is over, TF Si PV has to compete on its own merits at a time when CIGS and CdTe PV offering a compelling alternative. Such technologies offer the same lightweight and small form factor as TF Si but with higher conversion efficiencies. CdTe has the lowest cost-per-megawatt of all TFPV technologies. CIGS PV, on the other hand, offers the highest efficiency of all TFPV technologies--20 percent for champion cells.
While there may be some niche applications in which TF Si offers some benefit over the other TFPV technologies, only cost and/or performance improvements will help it hold onto its market share. NanoMarkets suspects these improvements, if they come at all, will arrive through changes in the absorber layer. We believe that there are four specific technical directions from which these improvements might emerge: multi-junction cells, cells using micro-silicon materials, cells using nanocrystalline silicon and printed silicon.
Multi-Junction Cells: Today, most TF Si PV is based on amorphous silicon (a-Si). One reason for the low efficiency of a-Si PV is its bandgap, which is in the range of 1.7-1.9 eV--higher than ideal for a single-junction cell. But a-Si also suffers from the Staebler-Wronski (S-W) Effect, which causes significant degradation in the power output of the cell when exposed to the sun, on the order of 15 percent to 35 percent. While making the layers thinner can reduce the impact of the S-W Effect by increasing the electric field strength across the material, the result would also mean a reduction in light absorption and in the (already low) efficiency of the cell.
To counter these effects, several a-Si PV firms have started manufacturing multi-junction cells up to triple junction as a way to boost a-Si PV's performance. Stacking thin layers on top of one another to form multi-junction cells improves performance on several counts. These layers are less susceptible to the S-W effect and the high bandgap of a-Si in the top cell lets a large proportion of light through to the next underlying cell, allowing the underlying cell, which typically uses a-SiGe to lower its bandgap, to generate significant current.
This approach represents a significant improvement over a simple a-Si cell, but there are also drawbacks. Specifically, the multi-junction approach adds costs in (at least) two ways. First there is the additional cost of the germanium for alloying. Then, more significantly, there is the increased complexity of the cell adding more cost and reducing yields. Multi-junction cells of this kind can boost a-Si's conversion efficiency to about 12 percent in champion cells or 10 percent for mass-produced, commercial cells. But there is diminishing marginal utility in this approach, not just in money terms but also in terms of performance, since each successive junction adds less to the overall performance of the cell.
Microcrystalline silicon: While a multi-junction TF Si PV structure using a-SiGe alloy for the underlying cells provides a much-needed performance boost, a similar boost can be obtained at lower cost by using microcrystalline silicon (µc-Si) as the lower absorber. The bandgap of µc-Si is about 1.1 eV, similar to that of bulk c-Si and a good complement as the bottom absorber to an a-Si top absorber. Using µc-Si combines the stable, higher efficiencies of c-Si technology with the simpler and cheaper large-area deposition technology associated with amorphous silicon. In addition, µc-Si uses very similar processing to a-Si and µc-Si cells can be fabricated on identical equipment to that used for a-Si.
This means that there would be no need for a major changeover in manufacturing infrastructure if a firm shifts from a conventional a-Si to a µc-Si product. And the likelihood is that cell makers may want to make that change since µc-Si may be more robust than a-Si cells and because, at least according to one company, µc-Si can offer an increase in power over conventional a-Si PV cells.
Of course, as usual, nothing comes without a cost. The key issues for µc-Si from a technology viewpoint are control of the morphology and size distribution of the deposited µc-Si. Any changes to the size distribution or the balance between crystalline and amorphous composition will change the properties of the film and hence the efficiency of the cell. Because this process window is very small, advanced manufacturing techniques and process control procedures borrowed from the semiconductor and display manufacturing industries are key to success with µc-Si cells and naturally this adds cost.
Nanocrystalline silicon: While multi-junction cells and µc-Si cells are fairly established technology, a more speculative approach to improving the performance of TF Si PV cells is to shrink the sizes of the silicon particles to the nano scale, a natural extension beyond µc-Si. Specifically, nanocrystalline silicon (nc-Si) holds potential for improvements beyond those achievable with µc-Si because below about 100 nm in diameter the properties of silicon crystals begin to change. At very small sizes, around 5 nm or so, nanoparticles become "quantum dots."
Prepared properly, silicon quantum dots can generate more than one exciton upon absorption of a high-energy photon. Conventional absorbers only generate one exciton and any excess photon energy just creates heat. Multiple exciton generation (MEG) is the feature that could allow nanosilicon PV to reach remarkable efficiencies--50 percent is talked about as a reachable goal. Such efficiencies would fundamentally change the value proposition of PV, but no one expects them to appear in a commercial product for many years.
Printed silicon: Beyond nanocrystalline silicon are silicon inks for printing, a natural extension of using nc-Si, which can fairly easily be turned into inks.
What printing offers is a fabrication approach that is much less expensive than more conventional approaches. Current deposition methods such as CVD, laser deposition, and plasma methods, are expensive, requiring vacuum chambers, high energies and temperatures, and they are often inefficient in terms of material usage.
Printing of silicon aims to eliminate most or all of these issues, reducing costs as well as enabling a wider variety of substrates and applications. Another key advantage of the silicon inks, particularly the ones made with nanocrystals, is that it is possible to tailor the composition and size distribution of the nanocrystals in the ink to optimize the performance of the printed films. Varying the composition of ink particles may enable the cell to absorb a wider spectrum of light with a single film compared to the multiple junctions necessary with traditional high-performance a-Si PV cells. But these advantages, while significant, are not yet the focus of printed silicon PV. For now, the goal is to obtain similar performance to conventionally deposited silicon while entering a new realm of scalability and cost reduction. And printed silicon PV has a long way to go. For one thing, functional printing of all kinds is harder to implement than the textbooks suggest.
Whether all this is enough to "save" thin film silicon in an era of silicon abundance remains to be seen. However, there is little doubt that silicon PV will still be a major part of the TF PV market for many years to come, although soon the average silicon cell will have structures and chemistries that look nothing like the a-Si cells of years past, such as those used in pocket calculators.
Published: January 01, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials
Among the many problems that the display industry has experienced with ITO, the most serious is surely cost. The display industry has done well in the past decade as flat-panel displays (FPDs) have all but replaced CRTs and have penetrated markets in which displays were never found before. This growth has occurred in large part because of declining displays prices. For growth to continue in the display industry, a downward price curve for displays will still be needed.
Unfortunately, this is not completely consistent with likely price trends in the ITO business. ITO is an expensive material due to its containing indium; indium has been priced at $350 to $1,000 for the last several years. While the recession may have delayed the need to address the cost issue, it has not eliminated the problem. Once economic growth returns, ITO prices will rise again. While NanoMarkets thinks indium prices will never attain the levels prophesied in some of the more hysterical pre-recession forecasts, one famous one suggested indium could reach $10,000 per kilo, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to see them quadruple.
But even this more modest price rise could put a lot of pressure on the margins of FPD makers. With prices of displays coming down by (say) 10 percent per year and indium quadrupling in price, the percentage of ITO in the bill of materials (BOM) for a display could reach double digits. This would not be good news for FPD makers who have never generated huge profits in the first place.
NanoMarkets sees only three ways to alleviate this problem. More Indium can be produced, causing supply of indium to go up and prices of ITO to drop. Or, ways can be found to use less ITO, causing demand for ITO to go down and prices of ITO to drop. Finally, the industry could find lower cost materials to replace ITO. All of these alternatives are being adopted now to some extent. All of them have issues.
Producing more indium in effect means that zinc firms will extract more indium as part of their process. This strategy is attractive to some companies in the zinc industry, but by becoming involved in the indium business they are taking on considerable business risk; indium's only significant use is for making ITO and (as we have seen) the price of indium changes a lot.
Using less ITO could mean either reclaiming ITO used in old TVs and monitors or reclaiming ITO wasted in the sputtering process. Or it could mean replacing sputtering with an improved deposition method. But while reclaiming waste is always a good idea, somehow it never produces the returns that its advocates expect. And new forms of deposition are easier discussed than implemented. For example, solution processing beats sputtering hands down in terms of material use efficiency, but it can be a tricky process to deploy and often leads to relatively low performance from the materials being deposited.
There has been a lot of discussion about finding a low-cost alternative to ITO. The three classes of materials that are candidates for such an alternative are other transparent conducting oxides (TCOs), conductive polymers and nanomaterials.
Alternative TCOs and polymers have a lot in common, although not chemically, of course. They are technologically mature, very low cost materials, and they are used wherever possible as an ITO substitute. The problem is that, as a practical matter, these materials can seldom offer the performance in terms of transparency and/or conductivity that ITO can offer. Alternative TCOs are used instead of ITO in some kinds of commercial photovoltaics, but in the display industry TCOs are not widely used. They have been used in some touch-screen sensing systems as have conductive polymers, but no one seems to believe that there is much likelihood of ITO being swept aside by new and improved TCOs or conductive polymers in the near future.
TCOs and conductive polymers that have been suggested as ITO alternatives are fairly established materials and are relatively inexpensive because they are produced in large quantities and have been for many years. But this is also (paradoxically) why we should not expect these materials to eclipse ITO; these ITO alternatives are just too well understood for a real breakthrough. It is true that the grades of TCOs and polymers that are used for displays are better than most and further improvements are likely, but these will be only incremental improvements. TCOs and polymers have a niche role to play, where cost is paramount over performance.
NanoMarkets is not so rash as to predict the end of ITO anytime soon. But we think that if this ever happens it will come as the result of an ITO alternative based on nanomaterials either based on carbon nanotubes or some nanoparticulate preparation.
The key point to understand here is that while TCOs and polymers are at a late stage of evolution of both their cost and innovation curves, nanomaterials replacements for ITO are at the early stage. As these materials change from being materials that are being supplied in small volumes for lab use and sampling, orders of magnitude declines in price are likely. In addition, the basic materials from which the nanomaterials are created may be less subject to the price fluctuations associates with indium; this is obviously the case with carbon nanotubes, for example.
Also, while the older ITO alternatives are never likely to provide the performance of ITO in terms of transparency and conductivity, nanomaterials certainly have the potential to do so. In fact, the whole point about nanomaterials (in any market) is that they can achieve high performance. In the case of nanoparticulate materials this is because the high surface-area-to-volume ratio makes them more "reactive;" in this case, more conductive. In the case of nanostructures, it is because a similar effect can be achieved through their geometry.
The nanomaterials vs. ITO game can--in theory anyway--be played in two ways. Suppose at some time in the future, some firm has developed a high-performance, relatively low-cost nano-substitute for ITO. One option would be to sell it as better, because of its higher conductivity, than ITO. (And one should remember here that ITO isn't especially conductive; it's used because of its currently unique balance of conductivity and transparency.) Another option would be to use lower concentrations of nanomaterials, perhaps matching the conductivity of ITO, but with very high transparency and at a lower cost than ITO.
Yet another advantage that nanomaterials could bring to the table in a future battle with ITO is the relative ease with which they could be adapted to roll-to-roll (R2R) processing. At least this seems to be the case with carbon nanotubes, which can easily be dispersed in water and coated, making them favorable for ink and printing processes. In addition, R2R processing implies the use of a flexible substrate, something that carbon nanotube preparations are well suited for because of their very high mechanical flexibility. By contrast, ITO cracks fairly easily when bent a lot.
All this should be attractive for display firms, which are finding batch processes based on very large substrates have growing diseconomies of scale. Helping to replace the older ways of manufacturing displays with lower cost processes is therefore yet another way that nanomaterial replacements for ITO could help lower costs.
However, some skepticism is in order here. First, R2R manufacturing of displays is a long way from being perfected and in any case, for the limited requirements of an R2R process, a thin coat of ITO may perform quite well. Intrinsically flexible displays, ones the user can bend back and forth, would be a challenge to ITO, but despite much talk such flexible displays still look to be some way off. Perhaps nanomaterials will help them arrive in the marketplace.
For the time being, the clearest example of ITO's mechanical limitations is to be found in analog resistive touch screens. The sensor subsystem used in such touch screens contains two transparent conductor layers, typically using ITO. With each touch, the top layer bends to contact the bottom conductive layer, thus registering a touch. When ITO is subjected to this repeated bending, it tends to degrade and crack, rendering the touch screen inoperable or at the very least insensitive to touch. For precisely this reason, analog resistive touch screens have been a major target for firms developing alternatives to ITO. (Note: Analog resistive touch screens have the largest share of the touch-screen market, but other touch technologies, such as the projected capacitive technology used in iPhones, do not have the same potential for ITO substitution as analog resistive screens.)
Finally, we also think that nanomaterial-based alternatives to ITO may have some applicability in the emerging area of OLED displays (and in OLED lighting too). OLED displays are being touted as having very high visual quality and this goes hand-in-hand with brightness uniformity. ITO is challenged in providing this for large OLED displays. For such large panels, ITO's fairly high resistivity is a problem--the voltage drop can create a brightness gradient over large areas. And while thin-film coatings of ITO tend to be smoother than some of the other choices, these coatings still have significant spikes rising tens of nanometers from the surface. These spikes can cause electrical shorts between the layers of a device. The ITO material can also interact with some active layer materials, causing them to degrade prematurely and shortening the device life. This surface roughness of the ITO layer can be addressed through post processing, though, of course, this adds cost. By contrast to all of this, nanomaterials can be deposited with both bulk and micro uniformity. And they may solve the resistivity issue as well.
Admittedly, much of the above is speculative, although hopefully intelligently so. NanoMarkets believes that nanomaterials are getting closer to becoming a viable alternative ITO. Non-existent in the transparent conductor market in 2009, we believe that nanomaterials will make inroads starting in 2013.
At present, several firms and research institutes are developing such materials. Unidym, for example, is creating carbon nanotube films for ITO replacements, and already has joint development agreements with Touch Panel Laboratories and LG Display to develop these films for touch screens. Cambrios Technologies Corporation, on the other hand, offers an ITO alternative consisting of metal nanowires dispersed in solvent, which it markets under the trade name ClearOhm. Meanwhile, nanoparticle networks are being developed at Argonne National Laboratory and a silver nanoflake material within a conductive polymer binder is being developed by Sigma Technologies.
So far none of these efforts has resulted in a product that can knock ITO out of consideration for major applications, but as we have shown the potential is there. If an investor is looking to bet against ITO, it is in nanomaterials that he or she should be placing his or her money.
Published: January 01, 2010 Category: OLED Lighting
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It's the beginning of a new year, and like any other we like to look back on the year past and look forward to see what's cooking for the year ahead. For OLED lighting, this is of especial importance: the industry saw its first commercial products, albeit extremely expensive ones, in 2009, which begs the question, will 2010 be the year for "affordable" OLED lighting-ones you and I could possibly purchase? The answer to this question appears to be "no." While companies have achieved significant strides in OLED performance, materials costs as well as the high cost of manufacturing (low volumes) still leave OLEDs with a high price tag. This is not to say that there's nothing to look forward to this year. On the contrary, as we discuss below, we expect to see more "products," ones being commissioned by designers and luminaire companies, as well as museums and the like. This on-slot (onslaught) of products will bring OLED lighting to the forefront of public attention, possibly giving the attention needed to push up demand and thus justify the construction of large-scale manufacturing lines for OLED lighting. This will hopefully bring down the price, making 2011 the first year for a "more affordable" OLED lighting product. Year in ReviewLast year was supposed to see the commercial takeoff of OLED televisions. But instead, OLED lighting seems to have taken the front seat for OLED producers. The opportunities for OLED displays have not proved as great as OLED advocates, (trade groups and industry promoters) had once hoped and this is the reason some of them have turned to lighting applications. Lighting seems to present opportunities that are both simpler technically than displays and where the entrenched technologies (light bulbs, fluorescent tubes) sometimes seem easier to push aside than the entrenched technology in displays, LCD. A further benefit for lighting: there is often significant government funding for R&D in this space. OLED lighting has received substantial public sector support in both Europe and the U.S. One additional appeal of OLED lighting is that it is extremely simple compared to a display; that is, a lamp can be as simple as one large pixel while an FPD has many thousands of pixels and may well need an active matrix backplane. So instead of large OLED televisions, the big news for OLEDs in 2009 was the introduction of the first OLED lighting products. In particular, Osram, through the well-known lighting designer Ingo Maurer, introduced the world's first "functional table light" based on its OLED technology. This availability, of course, was not in the stores, but rather at lighting trade shows and those OLED lighting products that became available did so in very small quantities. However, it was enough to give some clarity on what has been achieved and what still needs to be achieved in the OLED market. Successful technology revolutions often begin with high-priced or novelty products; fiber optics is another example. So the market evolution patterns we see emerging in the OLED lighting market are quite encouraging on those grounds alone. In addition, the fact remains that a year to 18 months ago it was impossible to point to an OLED lighting product that could actually be purchased at any price. Today they are expensive but available. What's on the Horizon?The Big Three lighting companies-General Electric (GE), Osram, and Philips-appear to be setting the stage for OLED lighting, indicating the level of acceptable performance and introducing lighting panels with that performance for designers to get a feel for. Late in November 2009, Osram announced the development of its Orbeos OLED panel-the company's first OLED product on the market. Orbeos, which is priced at EU250 ($358), can be switched on and off without delay, is continuously dimmable, and unlike LEDs its heat management is simple. Its brightness level is typically 1,000cd/m² with power input of less than a watt. In ideal operating conditions it has a lifespan of around 5,000 hours. The company claims that after demonstrating what it considers to be high performance (efficiency and lifetime), it is now shifting its focus from technical development to "process management and reliability for future products." This type of statement leaves NanoMarkets to believe that 5,000 hours is an acceptable lifetime for an OLED lighting product. As well, it also indicates that the first "real" products will be in the form of small tiles, instead of one large sheet. Osram does not expect to have a volume OLED lighting product until 2016. The company plans to transition into this high volume starting in 2012 by selling to the design community; here, the target customer will value some unique quality of the product, such as transparency. Philips started selling its OLED-based lighting wafers under the name Lumiblade, but has been quiet on the OLED front since that time. When releasing the Lumiblade product, Philips announced that it would start shipping commercial products in 2010. The company did not respond to NanoMarkets inquiry but we expect to see something from Philips at the upcoming lighting fairs. General Electric (GE) previously announced that it would begin volume production of flexible OLED-based lighting panels in 2010. (GE's roll-to-roll manufacturing process for OLEDs was much discussed at industry conferences during 2008.) GE's most recent announcement in OLED lighting was in December 2009 with its agreement to work with Power Paper, an Infinity Group portfolio company, to jointly develop self-powered OLED lighting devices. The collaboration, which will run for 12 months, will combine Power Paper's thin-film batteries with GE's OLED technology. The goal of the project is to develop "a first generation of self-powered OLED lighting products and identify next generation technologies with enhanced capabilities." Not Just the 'Big Three'In addition to the big three lighting firms, there are many other companies involved to a high degree in OLED lighting. Certain materials suppliers and OLED suppliers are also likely to play a major role in shaping the performance of the first generation of OLED lighting products. Specifically, Merck, Novaled, LG Electronics (through its acquisition of Kodak's OLED business in December 2009), Sumation, Universal Display Corp. (UDC), DuPont and Dow Corning will play a major role. The giants of the printing industry such as Avery Dennison, Toppan Printing and Dai Nippon Printing may also lend a hand, given their expertise in functional printing technology. We also expect to see new companies coming on the scene this year. One such company, Visionox, which spun out of technology of Tsinghua University, entered the industry several years ago but didn't really hit the radar until last year. At the China International Exhibition and Forum on Semiconductor Lighting held in Shenzhen in October 2009, the company demonstrated its OLED lighting product for decorative illumination-marking Visionox's transformation of OLED lighting technology into production. Visionox says that these products are currently available only in small volume but that in "coming years" the company plans to enter the general lighting and other lighting markets. NanoMarkets expects more companies like Visionox to appear in 2010; these companies will most likely demonstrate a technology on a small scale before being acquired by one of the larger companies in the industry. In SummaryTo re-cap, NanoMarkets expects 2010 to be the year of more OLED lighting products, as well as moves by some of the larger companies to start transitioning into high-volume manufacture. This transition will mainly be a focus on manufacturing as opposed to actual construction of high-volume lines. We expect the big three lighting companies to demonstrate new products, i.e. new ways of incorporating OLEDs into lighting products, at the upcoming lighting fairs. |
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Published: January 01, 2010 Category: Smart Grids
Improved energy storage is a key requirement for the deployment of the much touted Smart Grid. There are many reasons for this. One is that efficiently integrating solar and (especially) wind power into the grid requires buffering, since these renewable energy sources produce energy best only at certain times. Another reason is that Smart Grids are intended to be highly resilient so stored energy for times of peak demand and network outages is critical to building the new infrastructure.
Faced with such opportunities a variety of firms have been piling into the energy storage business in the hope that they will make money as the new Smart Grids in the U.S., Asia and elsewhere are built. There are three groups of firms that bear watching in this regard; established battery firms, firms touting new battery technologies and supercapacitor firms.
NanoMarkets' believes that within the established battery firms are those with established product lines in the UPS and industrial storage area; such firms can readily expand operations to support near-term smart-grid storage applications using existing technology. We also think that critical for these firms will be partnerships with some of the emerging start-up companies to push the envelope of lead-carbon battery technologies. Initially, it is likely that these established firms, with their large resources and tried-and-tested technologies, will be the ones who get the big orders for Smart Grid storage.
However, we also see a second type of firm that will do well in the long run; firms that produce advanced lead-based technologies. These firms are all either developing a lead-carbon cell or ultra batteries (lead/lead-carbon). What these new types of batteries have to offer potentially are very high energy densities, a factor that is critical to the successful deployment of Smart Grids for cost reasons and to avoid the need for committing huge amounts of real estate to ugly battery farms. We believe that some of the firms active in this area will reap significant rewards in four or five years. However, the advanced lead battery business will be like every other technology business that ever was; the next several years will see some lead-based battery technologies become industry standards and those that fall by the wayside. Consequently, we believe that lead batteries should be judged a risky business.
The third class of firms that Smart-Grid storage watchers need to keep on their radar screens is those in the supercapacitor market. Supercapacitors offer a completely new direction in energy storage and represent a technology that is still a long way from maturity; although we believe that the long-term market potential for these storage systems is great.
Of course, the winners and losers in the Smart-Grid storage stakes will be determined not just by their technologies, but also by all the usual business factors. We think that "seriousness of purpose," will be a key factor; that is, it is not enough for Smart-Grid storage to be just one of many technologies being considered in the lab. There is too much competition in this space for amateurs to succeed. For success, Smart-Grid storage will have to be an important part of the company's strategy, and not just one of hundreds of technologies being considered in the lab. And finally, of course, a success Smart-Grid storage firm will have to have what it takes to survive; significant financial and marketing resources in an emerging market that will take years to generate profits and where large contracts that take months to negotiate are the order of the day.
Exide is already one of the largest manufacturers of lead-acid batteries and has operations in over 80 countries. All this gives it the worldwide footprint necessary to supply projected growth in grid storage. Grid storage also appears to be a key focus for Exide; the company recently formed a new division, the ReStore Energy Systems division, to focus on renewable energy and lithium-ion applications. The activities of this new division in North America and Europe will be centered on large-scale storage projects for grid-connected wind and solar farms.
Clearly, Exide has both the seriousness of purpose and resources that we mentioned above. As such, NanoMarkets believes that it is a firm that should be watched closely in the Smart-Grid storage business. What is also especially interesting in this regard is Exide's work with Axion Power on lead-carbon electrode technology. Axion itself is a start-up company with no large-scale commercial products in the field, but what it does have is a key enabling technology for large-scale grid storage. The alliance between the two companies should allow the companies to expand to volume manufacturing faster than possible if they were working alone. Axion plans to keep manufacturing the carbon electrode used in all batteries regardless of whether the final battery is manufactured by Axion or Exide. The current target markets for this new technology are in hybrid, plug-in electric and heavy-duty transport applications, but major new applications are envisioned in the grid, where these batteries will be used to enhance power quality, load leveling and peak sharing.
The combination of near-term capacity of lead-acid technologies and a roadmap to higher performance products positions Excide well to be a major supplier of advanced lead-acid batteries for smart-grid applications.
Two battery chemistries that most observers believe will ultimately have a large penetration of the Smart-Grid storage business are lead-carbon and NaS. Firefly Energy is one firm that we believe bears watching in the lead-carbon space. This company's version of a lead-carbon battery uses a traditional positive electrode with a negative electrode based on composite graphite foam. The technical advantage that Firefly brings to the market is that its carbon foam electrode can fit into a traditional battery manufacturing scheme. It is always an advantage when a firm brings a new technology to market that it does not also have to re-engineer an entire a manufacturing process. Also working to Firefly's advantage is its partnership with C&D Technology, an established battery company, which gives Firefly the access to markets that will be important to its long-term success.
To date, there is only one large-scale supplier of NaS technology; NGK Insulators Ltd. This company has done the Smart-Grid storage market a service by firmly establishing NaS technology as viable for grid storage applications; it has deployed the technology in 200 locations (160 in Japan) with over 300 MW/2000 MWh of capacity in the field. We believe it will continue to have success in this field, since it has enough capitalization to enable further production expansions and manufacturing improvements, which are needed to reduce costs. NGK's capacity has grown from 48 MW/year in 2005, to 90 MW/year in 2008, with planned capacity of 150 MW/year for 2010.
General Electric's entry into the NaS battery market is also key development to watch in the NaS area and smart-grid storage in general. Obviously, GE has all the resources to make NaS happen outside of Japan, if the market permits. It also has some history with this technology - it worked on it in the 1970s - and, most importantly, it has the "seriousness of purpose" that we mentioned before. Thus GE has begun building a $100-million plant in New York with capacity to produce 10 million cells/year capable of storing 900 MWh of electricity; the factory is slated for start-up in 2011. GE is also investing a tax credit of $25.5 million it has recently received as part of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in manufacturing facilities for NaS technology.
The fact that NaS is already gaining some success is drawing other firms into the field including start-ups. An important example here is GeoBattery whose unique selling proposition is its attempt to wrap a turn-key storage solution of power electronics and software around NaS cells and target this solution to intermittent renewable energy generators (wind and solar). This concept seems quite sound in principle, and its success would be an indicator of a market for full service, turn-key storage solutions.
Then there are the supercapacitor firms, which, we believe should be judged by two metrics. First is the ability to reduce costs of established technology. Second is innovation both to the carbon electrodes and research into morphing current supercapacitor designs into advanced pseudocapacitor devices. Two companies that we think should be watched in this space are Maxwell Technologies and Siemens.
Maxwell Technologies is already one of the best-known manufacturers in the supercapacitor field, and has been at the forefront of cost-reduction measures in the industry. Maxwell has a full portfolio of cells ranging from five to 3,000 Farad (F) and using hydroxide-based electrolytes. The company's near-term Smart-Grid revenue growth will come, we believe, from regenerative braking markets for light rail, but Maxwell has also successfully demonstrated Smart-Grid applications for frequency regulation of critical infrastructure (California water plant).
While Siemens is a large company with many areas of focus, it already has a significant presence in the Smart-Grid space; it is involved in several Smart-Grid partnerships, demonstration projects and outreach programs. Specific to smart-grid storage, Siemens has a leadership position in integrating supercapacitors with the regenerative braking systems for trains and automobiles, mostly in Europe. An interesting twist in the technology that Siemens has implemented for electric light rail applications is to place the supercapacitors at intervals along the tracks instead of in the rolling stock.
Demonstrating this approach, Siemens Transportation Systems has installed supercapacitors for regenerative braking in its Sitras SES system, which is used in metro rail lines in the Cologne and Madrid metros. In a typical trackside implementation, the supercapacitors can absorb the braking energy from all trains within a 3-km radius. Siemens will likely expand from this base in Europe to worldwide applications of this system, and we also believe that it will eventually move into the supercapacitor market for grid quality as this market expands. We also believe that Siemens' growth in this sector, will be a bellwether of adoption and growth of supercapacitor technology by others worldwide.
There are other grid storage companies that bear watching too. We discuss all the active companies in NanoMarkets' latest report on this topic. However, from the analysis above we note that this is a market in which both giant multinationals (Siemens and GE) and start-ups can play and even cooperate. And that's one reason that makes the nascent Grid-Storage market so interesting.
Published: January 01, 2010 Category: Advanced Materials
Carbon materials have been an important part of electronics throughout the industry's history. But far from being a stagnant class of materials, new developments in carbon materials are poised to make dramatic performance improvements in the applications that use them and to enable completely new applications. Eventually, these new classes of materials may even revolutionize the electronics industry as we know it.
Conventional carbon inks, pastes, and coatings make up a critical--if sometimes overlooked--class of materials in the electronics industry, providing solutions that are modestly conductive as well as cheap, easy to apply, and inert. Carbon is thus an important entry in the portfolio of materials used for conductive coatings, especially when extremely low resistivity is not required. While these conventional materials and applications are certainly not the most exciting in the electronics industry, they have been a consistent source of revenues. But now new, breakthrough materials--carbon nanotubes and grapheme--are breathing new life into the carbon materials market and making carbon "sexy". Nanocarbon materials are already enabling new applications that take advantage of conductivity much higher than that of any metal. Down the road are even more possibilities that could provide carbon the status that silicon currently holds in the electronics industry.
Conventional carbon inks, pastes, and coatings are big business. Such thick-film carbon coatings are used in numerous applications including capacitors, membrane switches, keypads, printed circuit boards, EL lighting, and batteries. In addition to these, some newer and rapidly growing applications are providing growth markets for these conventional carbon inks, pastes, and coatings, including photovoltaics, energy storage--which is becoming more and more important as the smart grid is developed--and EMI/RFI shielding and antistatic coatings as electronics and components become ever more sensitive to interference and ESD. In photovoltaics conventional carbon is largely a material for CdTe PV--carbon paste for the back contacts--but even so the rapid growth of CdTe PV has made this a growth market for carbon. Conventional carbon is also a contender as a catalyst in DSC cells, to replace costly platinum.
Also approaching a rapid stage of growth is the supercapacitor market, in which carbon provides a high-surface area material for the storage of large amounts of electrical charge. These supercapacitors will see increasing use to accommodate decentralized electricity storage as electricity generation becomes more distributed--through the growth of photovoltaics and other alternative generation technologies at smaller than utility-scale--and as the smart grid is deployed. To some extent these phenomena will also boost demand for rechargeable batteries, many of which also use carbon inks and coatings.
And as low-cost, flexible electronics begins to emerge for applications such as RFID, the need for thin-film and printed batteries, often using carbon, will increase as well. Carbon is a mainstay of the primary battery industry and, although zinc-carbon batteries are generally mediocre in performance in old-style applications such as flashlights, they are certainly adequate,and low in cost,for some printed battery applications. Carbon is also used as an electrode for some batteries based on lithium chemistry, which can also be made by thin-film techniques. Also significant is the need for low-cost antennas for RFID, and carbon is a material that has been demonstrated for some types of these antennas.
Besides being an important conductor when used by itself or as the major component of a composite paste, carbon can also be especially useful in combinations with other materials. This includes mixtures (e.g., carbon-silver pastes) as well as combinations of different discrete pastes (e.g., carbon paste applied on top of silver paste). Carbon need not be the major component of the inks, pastes, and coatings it is used in; for instance, mixtures of carbon and silver or carbon and copper can be formulated to target a wide range of electrical, thermal, and chemical properties. Here lie applications such as resistive heaters for automobiles, or resistors in general. And the conductivity of a mixture of carbon and a metal such as silver behaves in a non-linear fashion. Adding carbon in small to moderate quantities to silver has only a small effect on the conductivity; thus silver--or another metal--can be mixed with carbon to reduce costs at a given level of performance.
But carbon's inertness makes it highly desirable as a thin coating over another, more conductive material. And it is not just chemical inertness that matters here; electromigration and the formation of dendrites are physical changes in metallic layers that are extremely problematic for the devices in which the conductors are used. One important function of carbon is thus to coat conductors--like silver--that are susceptible to electromigration, to provide a stable outermost surface that will not form dendrites; the printed carbon forms an inert, conductive encapsulant against dendrite formation on silver inks and other metals. Carbon is used in this way in switches and other devices that primarily use other conductive materials like silver. The thin layer of carbon produces only a small increase in series resistance.
While there are many applications for conventional carbon materials, and many of them are quite lucrative, these conventional materials are obviously not all that carbon is about. Newer carbon materials have been discovered and developed in recent years, materials that promise to enhance the properties of carbon, in some cases far beyond those of any material known before. But besides exciting researchers, these new carbon materials have also drawn the interest of investors and capitalists who see their potential in the commercial electronics world.
These new materials are the nanoscale phases of carbon--carbon nanotubes, fullerenes, and graphene sheets--and their electrical and physical properties are truly impressive. Carbon nanotubes--depending on the nanotube structure--have extremely high electrical conductivity, higher than that of any metal, while the other carbon nanotube structures are semiconducting. Carbon nanotubes also posses extremely high thermal conductivity--also much higher than that of any of the metals--and are the strongest known materials in tension. Graphene, depending on the dimensions of the sheet, can also have high thermal conductivity and either high electrical conductivity or semiconductivity. Fullerenes--the so-called "Buckyballs" or hollow carbon spheres--are good electron acceptors and have been used in OPV cells.
These carbon nanomaterials, when added to or used in place of conventional carbon materials, can lend their enhanced properties to the applications that use them. In this way thick-film carbon materials can gain new life as high-end conductive inks and pastes while still remaining low in cost. But they also open to door to completely new applications. For instance, the high conductivity of certain carbon nanotubes has hinted at their ability to form wires more conductive than copper or silver, but their tiny size makes possible the formation of films that are uniformly conductive on the macro scale and even on the micron scale, yet thin enough to be highly transparent.
This high electrical conductivity in a diffuse film is in fact the property behind some of the most lucrative new applications for carbon nanotube inks: highly conductive films, including transparent ones. But carbon nanotubes are not all the same; only some are conductive while others are semiconductive. In fact one of the key areas of research--and limits on their commercial usefulness--is with the problem of either producing only a single type or separating the conductive ones from the semiconductive ones. Mixtures containing both types of carbon nanotubes are still quite conductive and suitable for the new classes of applications, but there is a lot of room for improvement--and additional, more demanding applications--as the technological hurdles are overcome.
Beyond the applications that rely on the electrical conductivity of carbon nanotubes, their thermal conductivity is also drawing interest for applications such as heat spreaders and heat sinks, while the mechanical properties suggest uses in mechanically operating computer memories and other nanometer scale switching applications. Farther out are applications that make use of the semiconductivity of certain nanotubes, such as single-nanotube transistors and other electronic devices. Significantly, these single-nanotube applications were widely believed to be on the verge of commercialization as recently as five years ago but have since taken a back seat to the conductive applications in terms of progress toward wide commercialization.
Even newer on the scene is graphene, the single-atom-thick graphite monolayer that can also be either very conductive or semiconductive depending on sheet structure and dimensions. While continuous sheets of graphene are frequently envisioned as making up the surface of semiconductor chips in the future, as the successor to silicon, even producing a single large sheet of graphene still maxes out our current technological abilities. In fact, for all of its potential, graphene is still widely made by the very low-tech method of peeling layers off of bulk graphite!
While many graphene researchers are quite exuberant about the commercial prospects for graphene, a cautious view suggests that, as was the case for carbon nanotubes, the most dramatic, truly novel applications are still several years away. Graphene is thus likely to be a material mainly for niche applications for many years. But those niches are already beginning to emerge and products such as graphene inks are already nearing commercialization.
Published: December 01, 2009 Category: Smart Grids
The U.S. and other developed nations are currently proposing and implementing numerous policy initiatives intended to bring forth a "smart grid" for their electrical systems. However, current terminology is not entirely appropriate to what they have in mind because electrical systems have long incorporated both smart and non-so-smart technologies. Contemporary electronics and telecommunications already bear key responsibilities for the reliable and economical operation of regional grids. In fact, their roles have steadily expanded as loads have grown, non-utility generators have proliferated and growing markets expand the geographic range of utilities' power supply options.
Nonetheless, Smart Grids as they are currently being conceived present a complete rethinking of the electricity grid technology and deployment for the needs of the 21st Century. They also promise enhanced energy efficiency at a time when everyone expects energy prices to increase and they promise enhanced grid security at a time when the world remains concerned about terrorist attacks. Smart Grids also imply a modernization of the traditional grid to accommodate the unique energy generation patterns associated with alternative energy sources.
NanoMarkets believes that Smart Grids currently represents a major opportunity for a wide variety of businesses ranging from transmission equipment firms, through manufacturers of communications and metering equipment, down to firms that make advanced materials. However, like all major infrastructure projects, the new business revenues that are likely to flow from the deployment of Smart Grids will depend heavily on government policy. And governments in the U.S., Canada, Europe, China and Australia, among other nations and regions, are now following similar visions as a way of addressing energy independence, climate change and network survivability issues.
As a result, NanoMarkets believes that to fully exploit the opportunities that Smart Grids present, firms will have to have an in depth understanding of the commercial impact of government Smart Grid policies. Only through such an understanding will businesses be able to distinguish between hype and real revenue potential and be able to set realistic time frames and strategies for their Smart Grid businesses. Smart Grid firms will also have to think beyond legislation and regulation specifically aimed at Smart Grids; there will also be impacts on Smart Grid businesses stemming from more general approaches to energy policy, as we all as from communications and national defense policies.
Bearing all this in mind, NanoMarkets believes that it is time for a study that analyzes and quantifies the opportunities that are growing out of current policy-regulatory-legislative efforts related to the smart grid and this is the key motivation for the this report, the focus of which is on the activities in the U.S., although opportunities and activities in other major industrial countries are also be discussed.
The sophisticated technologies of grid operation have already affected relations between utilities and large industrial power consumers. Those consumers increasingly face rates that reflect the contemporaneous costs of power production, and some are both consumers and producers of cogenerated power. Communication and control technologies have made some of them partners with utilities in maintaining reliability, whether by interruptible rates or by new abilities to bid demand reductions into regional energy markets.
Relationships between utilities and their largest customers already provide a preview of the functionality of the smart grids to come. New abilities to communicate and control power will put utilities and their customers into responsive and mutually beneficial relationships that can reduce the costs of electrical services and aid in the implementation of broader social and environmental policies. The smart grid will open up new markets for many suppliers of equipment and services. We can achieve a better understanding of these opportunities, however, if we treat the grid's future less as a revolution and more as a massive extension of already-active trends.
There is no easy way to quantify the extent to which existing large customers and their utilities already reap benefits like those of a smart grid. What we can quantify is that nearly two-third of all power in the U.S. (and comparable fractions elsewhere) is sold to residential and smaller commercial users whose relationships with their utilities have hardly changed in a century. Their metering technologies are ancient and their abilities to monitor power costs and use patterns are nonexistent. Many of their load profiles display contemporaneous peaks which require that utilities invest in capacity they seldom operate to maintain reliability, and even if they could track their consumption they would gain no reward for cutting it under the flat rates that apply to most of them. This in itself represents a long-term business opportunity as energy gets more expensive and it would be a business opportunity even if the smart grid was not so much to the fore.
But with the smart grid it is sometimes difficult to sort out the real business opportunities from the hype; the smart grid literature mostly reads like utopian literature of the past. If the costs of the hardware and software are manageable, customers who take advantage of the technologies will benefit from lower bills under time-varying rates. New rate designs will encourage large numbers of them to cut their costs by better managing their demands. Utilities will be able to defer new generation and transmission while delivering power that may be more reliable than ever thanks to the smart grid's data collection capabilities. They will gain the ability to integrate larger volumes of intermittent renewables into their systems while maintaining reliability. Like industrial users, some smaller customers will at times be suppliers to the grid of renewable solar power produced on their premises. On top of these benefits, the smart grid offers hope for substantial reductions in carbon emissions.
Again, these are benefits that could easily lead to new business opportunities at every level of the value chain. But all of the usual business uncertainties are there too; how much must be invested, whether the technologies will work, whether utilities are competent to oversee their complexity (in light of the nuclear experience), whether customers will accept the change, and if they do whether the impact will be worth the cost. What little we know about the answers to these questions has largely been gleaned from an extremely small and nonrandom sample of pilot programs, so the level of uncertainty is much higher than it might otherwise be.
Overall the smart grid is a seemingly agreeable and potentially rational solution that is at least somewhat consistent with the interests of utilities, regulators, investors, environmentalists, and possibly power users. A confluence of events is driving it forward, perhaps irresistibly. Ultimately, the sustainable business opportunities that flow from the smart grid will be determined by the objective issues listed above and others similar to them. For now, however, some of the conventional business issues may hardly matter in light of the underlying politics of electricity and the environment, which is driving smart grid markets (and funding) at the present time.
Events and politics alone, however, will bring little unless the technology materializes and becomes commercially feasible. The extension of smartness to lower voltages and multitudes of smaller customers has brought a drive to conceptualize, engineer, and economically manufacture numerous components that are integral to the grid; yet another business opportunity flowing from smart grid. For many of the basics potentially viable suppliers already number in the dozens. By contrast, the numbers and identities of potential purchasers are much more uncertain. They will depend on political and regulatory decisions that will unfold over the relatively near future, near because both state regulators and federal energy legislation in the U.S. (and analogous institutions outside of it) are rapidly accumulating momentum. That momentum has hardly been slowed by the current recession. It has already triggered mass rollouts of equipment to low-voltage users in nations like Italy and U.S. states like Texas and California.
Published: November 01, 2009 Category: Advanced Materials Smart Grids
As the current generation of power grids approach the end of their useful life, public and private institutions are calling for the construction of new grids--a Smart Grid that incorporates new technologies to allow for affordable and efficient power supply and the integration of power generated from renewable energy sources. The vision of the Smart Grid, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy in its Grid 2030 vision, is "a 21st century electric system that connects everyone to abundant, affordable, clean, efficient, and reliable electric power anytime, anywhere."
Meeting the many and varied expectations for Smart Grids in the next ten years will mean the development of new kinds of cable, cable dielectrics, power electronics, cable insulators, and energy storage devices. For this to happen, Smart Grids will have to utilize a variety of new materials ranging from gallium nitride to superconductors to carbon nanotubes. The task is even more urgent given that, according to many observers, investment in electricity grids has lagged in the U.S. and other nations, creating an urgency to upgrade.
Thus the opportunity being discussed here is more than just a response to what may be just hype; all the fuss over Smart Grids, some of which may be more politically motivated than motivated by real needs. As a result of both genuine needs and the massive capital expenditures that are expected to be made on Smart Grids in the next decade (especially in the U.S.), NanoMarkets expects to see unparalleled opportunities for manufacturers of advanced materials and specialized power devices and cables. These will help enable new grid architectures as well as enhance power system control and reliability, improve power quality and equipment lifetimes, and reduce costs.
Advances in material science have always been applied to the grid conceptually, but have historically not had much impact on grid development. A couple of decades ago, for example, superconductors were touted as likely to change the face of grid technology, but they didn't live up to their promise. It is often noted in the industry that Thomas Edison would have felt quite at home with today's grid technology and materials. And it is almost certainly the case that most managers and engineers who deal with electricity grids on a day to day basis think of it at the material level as being made up of "just wire," as one of them put it to us.
What has changed is that there is a new focus on advanced materials as an area of engineering that can produce business opportunity. This is often talked about in terms of the rise of "nanotechnology," although this designation is a bit crude in the sense that much more than "small tech" is involved. The new interest in advanced materials is a much larger trend than one that simply impacts the power industry, but it does potentially impact this industry in many different ways.
For now, we note only that, while in the past, improvements in materials and components for the grid would have been largely incremental, today's materials development is at a point that makes possible orders-of-magnitude improvements in performance. According to the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), achieving a next-generation power grid will require the development of several "critical" technologies. These include advanced conductors; high temperature superconducting materials and equipment; large- and small-scale electric storage devices; distributed sensors, smart controls, and distributed energy resources; and power electronics.
The most obvious way in which new materials can impact next-generation grids is through advances in conductive materials. By increasing conductivity it becomes possible to move toward an ideal where power is generated where it can be created at the lowest cost and then shipped to where it is most needed. Consider for example the scenario in which energy was generated cheaply in Nevada using solar thermal technology and then shipped--also at low cost--to Minnesota. This is still a long way from being a possibility at the present time, but would require cables made from new materials that would be incorporated into a Smart Grid to enable hundreds of Gigawatts of electricity to be shipped over thousands of miles.
There are (at least) three developments in advanced materials that are important in this context. Composite conductors are the most conventional of these and these are already in use throughout the existing grid. Composite cabling systems most often utilize aluminum and they are said to double amperage limits with little change in the requirements for line support or towers.
More revolutionary is the use of superconductors. As we have already noted, the first wave of interest in this area ended in disappointment. However, there is some limited use being made of 1G (first generation) superconductor wire in the power industry today; they are being used in short line segments as exits from congested substations or in urban areas and as fault current limiters. 2G superconductor wire and high-temperature superconductors (HTS) can be made in limited quantities today and have the kind of spectacular performance requirements that may be just what the Smart Grids of the future need. As an example of the renewed interest in HTS for Smart Grid applications, we cite the announcement in October 2009 by American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) that its high-temperature superconductor wire have been chosen for the Tres Amigas Project. This is a "multi-mile, triangular electricity pathway capable of transferring and balancing many GigaWatts of renewable power between three power grids."
The third material that presents an opportunity for new levels of conductivity for the Smart Grid is carbon nanotube-based wires. The suggestion that carbon nanotubes could be used in this way was first made by the late Richard Smalley, and much of the work in this area is still being carried on at Smalley's old university, Rice University. According to researchers there, CNT wires "can theoretically conduct 100 million amps of current over thousands of miles without much loss in efficiency." This compares to today's wires, which conduct around 2,000 amps of current over hundreds of miles, with about 6 percent to 8 percent of the electricity lost in the form of heat. In a paper published in July 2009 in Nano Research, researchers at Rice University also described a method for making bundles of single-walled carbon nanotubes centimeters in length that could eventually yield CNTs of unlimited length. However, of the three developments in Smart-Grid-related conductive materials, CNT wires is by far the furthest from actual commercialization.
Dielectric materials are used primarily in the power grid for cable insulators (they are also used in capacitors). As with conductive materials, the expectation is that the evolution of the Smart Grid will produce a need for enhanced performance from dielectrics; that is better dielectrics will be needed to support the other changes in electricity grids that Smart Grids are expected to bring in their wake. However, in this case there is an environmental consideration as well, namely the need to replace sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). SF6 is an excellent dielectric that is widely used in high-voltage circuit breakers, switch boxes, and transmission lines. But it is also a major greenhouse gas. There is obviously a misfit between the Smart Grid concept as a way to improve the environment and the widespread use of a material said to promote unwelcome climate change.
In terms of performance, nanomaterials are likely, once again, to be important in the dielectric space. One much touted opportunity for nanotechnology in dielectrics can be found in the area of nanofillers. These are said to provide breakthrough performance in voltage endurance and breakdown strength. Nanocoatings could also enable improved dielectrics, although these will be used initially in combination with traditional fiberglass materials for insulators. The transition to exotic new conductors using superconductive and nanotube materials may well require entirely new forms of dielectrics; the current generation of dielectrics may be entirely inappropriate to their level of performance.
Much the same can be said of power electronics for the Smart Grid. Power electronics devices for the traditional grid--devices that include static VAR compensators, solid-state circuit breakers, and solid-state transformers--have been made using conventional silicon processes. Once again, there is a growing belief that these conventional devices do not have it in them to meet the requirements of the Smart Grid in terms of voltage, switching speed and thermal resilience.
This has created opportunities, both for power electronics devices made out of new materials and for new kinds of power electronics devices. As far as the new materials are concerned, the two that are at or near commercialization are silicon carbide and gallium nitride. These potentially provide significantly higher breakdown strength, lower switching losses and higher tolerance of high junction temperatures than silicon. Other materials that have been touted for next-generation grid power electronics include zinc oxide and even diamond. In a separate but related development, a new generation of power electronics devices are also appearing that will make electricity control processes in the Smart Grid easier to manage and more efficient. These include in particular unified power flow controllers, solid-state transfer switches and dynamic brakes.
Another interesting class of device--AC/DC inverters--represents, of course, an entirely mature technology in its current form. However, new and improved materials are expected to bring these inverters to a point where large areas in Smart Grids may be able to operate using DC.
Distributed energy storage is a key part of the Smart Grid concept, enabling improved efficiency of the grid as a whole as well as better load-leveling and backup for emergencies and grid outages. In addition, high-quality energy storage is a key requirement associated with alternative energy sources, because these newer sources of energy are intermittent in nature; photovoltaics produce no energy at night, for example.
In theory, almost any kind of conventional battery system can be used in Smart Grids, but new storage technologies are now appearing that are aimed specifically at the Smart Grid market. Areas where these new technologies are appearing include pumped hydro, compressed air, flywheel, chemical storage, ultracapacitor and superconducting magnetic. However, NanoMarkets believes that the most exciting opportunities in Smart Grid storage will come from materials and systems applications of chemical batteries and ultracapacitors.
Chemical batteries and ultracapacitors offer a compelling value proposition compared to other solutions as they are the most economical solutions for electrical storage and are not limited to certain geographical locations. They also have an extremely small carbon footprint, and offer significant potential applications today as well as a roadmap to deeper market penetration as materials improvements and manufacturing improvements/cost reductions evolve over the next decade.
Smart grid storage can be categorized into short-term storage for load leveling and quality uses (less than a minute) and longer-term storage for peak shaving/load shifting applications (storage for minutes or hours). Ultracapacitors are well suited to load leveling and quality applications as they have an extremely fast discharge and charging response, have a high current capacity and can be cycled hundreds of thousands of times without degradation to their storage ability. Chemical batteries are ideal candidates for peak shaving applications as they have higher energy densities and in many cases long service lifetimes.
Published: November 01, 2009 Category:
The OLED materials market is the invisible foundation sitting beneath the more prominent OLED industry. The darling of the technology press for the past decade, OLEDs hold forth the promise of thinner, lighter, brighter, and more efficient displays. Yet the industry remains a vexing contradiction, with well-established applications on the one hand, but on the other hand with applications that seem to remain forever out of sight over the horizon, just tantalizingly out of reach.
There is no disputing the allure of the technology. The emissive nature of OLEDs eliminates problems of viewing angle and the related shifts in hue or contrast. The devices only require a single substrate, unlike the two glass layers required for LCD or plasma displays. The resulting products can be astoundingly energy efficient, with the potential to use one-half to one-third as much power to produce the same amount of light as a compact fluorescent lamp.
In spite of these advantages, OLEDs have only managed to gain a foothold in a couple of applications. Other uses continue to be in the state of development, but progress is slow. The problem is that while the existing OLED industry is well established and relatively mature, many new problems must be solved in order to achieve similar success in other applications. This will require new materials and process technologies, and thus presents important opportunities for materials producers.
To capture the opportunities presented by applications such as solid-state lighting and large-format color displays, it will be important to understand OLED's history, its current state, and where it is headed. In addition, an analysis of the OLED industry would not be complete without considering the role of the worldwide economy, in particular the impact of the recent recession and anticipated recovery.
The early applications for OLEDs were low-density information displays, such as those on car stereos. Passive matrix elements were used to create single-color icons or segmented alpha-numeric readouts. The small size and energy efficiency were appealing to designers, and the vivid colors and excellent contrast gave the early displays dramatic impact.
After a few feints in other directions--electric razors and digital cameras--OLEDs next moved to mobile phones. The first applications were the secondary displays where passive matrix technology was sufficient to show phone numbers and date-and-time information. Eventually, the performance of active matrix OLED displays was good enough for the primary display, with full-color pixelated panels providing brilliant colors and excellent contrast. The thin form factor and power efficiency are well suited for mobile device applications, and the relatively low duty cycle (compared with a television or room lighting) minimized problems with differential color aging and other problems. (The fact that these displays need a polysilicon backplane does not increase the bill of materials cost as much as it would for a larger display, so they remain affordable.)
On a revenue basis, main displays for mobile phones remain the leader for generating OLED revenue for the near future. So what's the next step for the industry?
The next application that will generate significant business for OLED manufacturers is almost certain to be architectural lighting. While this may not be as sexy as a big screen television, it has great appeal for its thin form factor and high efficiency. Also, lighting devices are simpler to manufacture than pixelated displays, so it is more likely that they will come to market sooner. Pent-up consumer demand for OLED televisions remains strong, however, so this segment appears to be poised to surge ahead as soon as they can go into production at competitive prices.
So why haven't these next applications taken off yet? One reason is that there are plenty of material and process challenges to be conquered. Both universities and corporations are investing time and money into improving existing approaches and developing new ones, but progress comes slowly.
The bigger reason, however, may be the global economic environment. Technology research of all sorts suffered under the recent recession, as companies struggled to deal with massive losses by finding ways to slash costs. Even if we have turned that corner, unemployment remains high which will be a drag on the consumer spending that helps fuel technology advances. The tight credit market is likely to continue, which in turn will make it difficult to get funding for new ventures.
The economics don't look to get much better for OLED in the near future, either. Even without the massive spending undertaken by central governments around the world to speed the recovery from the recent recession, many experts were already talking about significant inflation coming down the line. As a result, we expect that inflation will become the order of the day, forcing companies and consumers alike to struggle to manage rising prices and decreased buying power. The end result is that it will be increasingly difficult and expensive to fund the startup of new segments of the OLED industry, such as lighting and large-format displays.
The existing OLED industry benefits from standing on the shoulders of other giants. For example, manufacturers can use the same high-quality glass produced for the LCD industry as substrates and top encapsulating layers. The existing glass has excellent uniformity and planar characteristics, which is precisely what is needed as substrates for the thin film layers of OLED devices. Glass also is impervious to oxygen and water vapor, so it is a reliable solution for encapsulation.
The process of using lasers to anneal an amorphous silicon layer on glass is well established, providing the increased electron mobility required for pixelated OLED displays. And glass substrates with ITO coating as a transparent conductor are readily available from many sources. Even the specialized materials required for OLED devices are available from a variety of sources and in sufficient quantities for existing production needs.
The catch is that the next steps require some technological leaps, and there are no shoulders handy to jump on to get there.
For example, glass has characteristics that are less than optimal for OLEDs. It's relatively heavy (on a weight per volume basis), relatively rigid, and relatively fragile. At present, it is not suitable for flexible devices, either as conformable displays, such as curved dashboards in automobiles, or as displays that can be folded or rolled for storage. Various plastics and metals are available, but there is not another industry that needs flexible substrates that are impermeable to water vapor and oxygen (with the exception of organic photovoltaics, but that industry is in its infancy compared with OLEDs).
ITO is broadly used as a transparent conductor, but has its own shortcomings. Planarization of ITO coatings can be a problem for OLED devices, which can require additional layers in order to get reliable performance. ITO can also be brittle, making it less desirable for use in flexible displays. A variety of alternative materials are under investigation as transparent conductors--especially for thin film devices--but there is no existing industry segment that already relies on any of these alternatives.
The use of polysilicon backplanes extends to other segments besides OLED displays, but they all tend to be small devices, with small notebook computer displays being the largest to be mass produced. In order to make any headway in the large format television market, the OLED industry will need either alternatives for the semiconductor backplane or ways to scale the polysilicon production process to larger screen sizes.
The Holy Grail for OLED device production is roll-to-roll (R2R) continuous processing. The promise is for greatly increased material use efficiency while greatly reducing the amount of time it takes to manufacture a device. To be sure, various forms of R2R printing are extremely mature at this point, but they have only limited application in products that are even remotely similar to OLEDs. As a result, processes must be developed to support this form of fabrication. Most of the approaches require OLED materials in solution--printable inks--to work, and many believe that this will mean the use of polymer-based OLED materials.
At present, however, practically all the OLEDs are produced using small molecule materials, applied with traditional vacuum deposition techniques. In short, the current production systems do not have a practical roadmap to get to large format displays.
Some progress is being made, especially in the area of OLEDs for solid-state lighting. A number of organizations have started pilot production lines for R2R OLED manufacturing, including GE and Fraunhofer IPMS, which will presumably lead to further refinements in process and material technology.
Still, there is a long way to go in order to build up the OLED industry beyond its current focus on mobile device displays. This involves considerable risk as research and development take a lot of time and resources with no guarantee of success at the other end. And with risk comes added expense and difficulty in getting funding, which only serves to slow down progress that much more.
And delay can be costly. LED lighting already is progressing rapidly, which may make it more difficult for OLED products to find competitive niches when they become commercially available. And LCD flat panels for televisions have already become astoundingly thin with improved picture quality, even as prices continue to tumble, which will make it that much more difficult for OLED TVs to compete once they go into production.
So while OLED technology continues to capture the imagination of the press, consumers, and even manufacturers, the reality remains that while it has a strong base on which to build, it will take a long time for it to move to the next level. OLED lighting is not likely to hit its stride for at least four years, and while there is even greater uncertainty for OLED televisions, that segment is not likely to have significant market share any earlier than 2015.
Published: November 01, 2009 Category: Renewable Energy
As the photovoltaic (PV) industry has grown over the past decade, the thin-film photovoltaics (TFPV) segment of that industry--and with it, the volumes of the materials used by it--has experienced even more rapid growth. And while the recession of 2008-2009 has certainly set things back a bit, this segment is poised to resume significant growth and even to surpass conventional crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV in volume over the next several years.
TFPV uses a completely distinct set of materials from the more traditional crystalline silicon photovoltaics. The three major TFPV technologies--amorphous silicon (a-Si) PV, cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV, and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) PV--use very thin films (single microns or less) of their absorber materials instead of the bulky silicon wafers hundreds of microns thick that are used by c-Si PV. And the films are formed by thin-film deposition methods--like sputtering or CVD; sometimes electrodeposition or printing--so that all of them, even a-Si PV cells, which use silicon, use completely different starting materials as compared to c-Si PV.
And it is not just the absorber materials that are different. TFPV uses a completely different class of substrates--glass, metal foils, or polymers--as opposed to the silicon wafers that double as substrate and active material for c-Si PV. The electrodes are also very different, especially on the front face where TFPV uses transparent conductive films and c-Si PV does not. And some classes of materials--non-transparent electrodes, encapsulating films, etc.--are specialized for TFPV even though they are in some cases similar to those used for c-Si PV.
Up until the worldwide economic crash of 2008, while PV grew at a rapid pace, TFPV has grown even faster, with hyper-growth at times. After the crash and during the extended recession of 2008-2009, some pockets of the TFPV segment have fared better than c-Si PV or PV in general. But why should TFPV behave any differently from c-Si PV? After all, none of the TFPV technologies is up to the conversion efficiency of c-Si PV; while CIGS PV comes close in champion cells, its production cell efficiencies still lag. And nearly all TFPV modules produced are quite conventional in nature and very similar to the modules produced by c-Si PV firms.
For a long time the answer was easy: the cost and availability of the materials. As demand for PV modules grew rapidly--triggered by high energy prices, concern for the environment, and perhaps most importantly by policy choices in Europe, Japan, and California--the supply of silicon needed to produce them could not keep up. TFPV, long limited to research labs and small niches like solar-powered calculators, "grew up" suddenly to help satiate this raging demand. Like many other technologies, TFPV has historically suffered from the production-versus-demand paradox: high volumes depend on low price, but low price depends on high volumes. The imbalance between supply and demand for PV panels enabled TFPV to climb out of its traditional, limited role since a higher price could be supported yet still be low relative to the alternative.
But now that silicon is no longer in short supply, the cost advantage of TFPV has been reduced. And the new construction opportunities for PV installation--the most economical time to install PV--are still fewer than they had been a year and a half ago, causing demand to remain limited. This is a different environment than the one TFPV "grew up" in. But the volumes that TFPV has achieved now make it a competitive collection of technologies in this market. Even so, TFPV will increasingly benefit from taking advantage of its other advantages--besides cost--to drive growth.
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Published: October 01, 2009 Category:
There is a general consensus that the current grid is not sufficient in terms of efficiency, reliability, security, and its environmental impact to supply the electrical power needs of our modern society. One solution is to upgrade to a smart grid, the development of which presents many opportunities. While there are several competing technologies that can store electricity (pumped hydro, compressed air, flywheel, chemical storage, ultracapacitor, superconducting magnetic), NanoMarkets believes that the most exciting opportunities will come from materials and systems applications of chemical batteries and ultracapacitors.
Chemical batteries and ultracapacitors offer a compelling value proposition compared to other solutions as they are the most economical solutions for electrical storage and are not limited to certain geographical locations. They also have an extremely small carbon footprint, and offer significant potential applications today as well as a roadmap to deeper market penetration as materials improvements and manufacturing improvements/cost reductions evolve over the next decade.
Smart grid storage can be categorized into short-term storage for load leveling and quality uses (less than a minute) and longer-term storage for peak shaving/load shifting applications (storage for minutes or hours). Ultracapacitors are well suited to load leveling and quality applications as they have an extremely fast discharge and charging response, have a high current capacity and can be cycled hundreds of thousands of times without degradation to their storage ability. Chemical batteries are ideal candidates for peak shaving applications as they have higher energy densities and in many cases long service lifetimes.
The near-term opportunities for load leveling storage are clear. Approximately 90 percent of power outages last for no longer than two seconds, and 98 percent of outages last, at most, 30 seconds, but their economic effects are large. Estimates range from $75 to $200 billion per year impact from power interruptions due to lost time, lost commerce, and damage to equipment. While there is currently a large growth market in UPS systems to protect critical infrastructure, improvements to ultracapacitors both in capacity and manufacturing costs reductions will create new markets for them especially in new industrial and commercial construction.
Chemical battery storage represents a critical component for several smart grid applications at several levels along the value chain. Bulk price arbitrage, central generation capacity efficiency (peak shaving), transmission capacity/transmission congestion relief and the integration of variable output sources such as wind and solar are all crucial applications of storage in a successful smart grid. The need for storage to integrate solar and wind cannot be over emphasized. Thirty states have renewable energy mandates that average 17-percent integration of renewable energy sources by 2010-2025. Only with a significant amount of electrical storage can this level of wind and solar be integrated into a stable electrical grid, so the value proposition of new forms of electrical storage is difficult to overestimate.
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Published: October 01, 2009 Category: Smart Grids
There is a general consensus that the current power grid is reaching its limitations and that smart-grid technology will be needed to increase efficiency, reliability, and security, as well as to reduce the environmental impact of supplying the electrical power needs of modern society. The development of such a smart grid presents many materials opportunities, one of which lies in the sensors market. NanoMarkets believes that sensors will be a key enabler for the smart grid to reach its potential.
Components of the evolving smart grid include smart metering of electricity, smart materials to enable higher current capacity overhead lines and self recovery during outages, intelligent components (substation components can communicate with the wider smart grid), plug and play components (new components will actively insert themselves in the intelligent network), reconfigurable components (can reroute power effectively and automatically when outages occur) and storage of electricity for quality and peak shaving applications.
Of all of the elements in the emerging smart grid, sensors will be one of the leading indicators of smart grid growth worldwide. The idea behind the "smart" grid is that the grid will respond to real-time demand; in order to do this, it will require sensors to provide this "real-time" information. NanoMarkets includes in its definition of smart-grid sensors, the sensors themselves, the digitization hardware, the wired and wireless infrastructure and smart metering hardware necessary to collect and transport sensor data across the grid.
Overall, the grid infrastructure market worldwide represents about an $80-billion/year industry with approximately $20 billion of that in North American markets. While the transition to a more intelligent grid has already started, the current grid is dominated by a system that is mostly electromechanical in nature, radical in its layout with centralized generating capacity and one way in its communication with little or no sensor feedback to centralized decision makers. The transition to a digital network with two-way communication, a network topology with distributed generation, grid storage and pervasive control systems and self monitoring presents extremely attractive opportunities for sensor firms.
These opportunities can be grouped into three general areas. The first is the "line infrastructure" or "transmission grid," which consists of the transmission lines that run from the point of power generation to the substations (distribution hubs). Second is the local/utility distribution grid, which runs from the substation to the home (end user). This segment represents an overall worldwide market of about $40 billion/year in North America. It is in this section we will also include opportunities centered on distributed generation, microgrids and variable generation sources (wind and solar). The third group is the edge infrastructure, which starts at the smart meter and includes everything within the home (office building, etc.). This segment represents an overall worldwide market of about $6 billion/year, of which $2 billion/year is in North America.
In the past, when more electrical capacity was needed, the low cost of fuel and relatively inexpensive construction costs compared to alternatives and regulatory structure made adding central generating capacity the economical solution. With the volatile cost of feedstock and new emphasis on environmental stewardship, adding capacity is no longer the most economical solution. In addition, the current long-term mandates to incorporate high levels of renewable, variable output generating resources (wind and solar) require a smarter gird for grid stability.
Even though the established infrastructure in North America and Europe are in need of upgrading with smart technology, we expect the build out to seem slow compared to the telecom build of the late 1990's due to the risk averse, highly conservative culture of the utility industry and its highly regulated nature. However, because of systemic underinvestment over the past 40 years, much of the infrastructure is reaching the end of its life and the transition to smart infrastructure will occur with what seems lightning speed for this industry. Because of this culture of conservatism and regulation, we see the build out starting in the least regulated and bureaucratic areas (edge infrastructures) and moving out from there.
Demand for sensors in the edge infrastructure (within home/office) area will follow the implementation of automated meter infrastructure (AMI), which communicates real-time pricing information between the customer and utility. On the customer side of the AMI, there are opportunities to make sensors pervasive within the home to track and manipulate utility uysage. Wireless networks with usage monitors on heating, cooling equipment and major appliances that can communicate usage and control use in relation to the real-time electrical prices will become the norm. Pilot AMI programs are already in place at over 20 utilities.
While consumers will be able to reduce their costs through real-time usage information, utilities will be able to use the smart metering real-time use and outage information for improved efficiency and service. The outage information will allow for much quicker isolation and understanding of outage types, which will allow quicker restoration of service. The second advantage to utilities will be improved understanding of real-time demand and patterns, which will increase generating efficiency by allowing better load balance than in its current blind situation.
At the medium voltage local power company distribution level from the transmission line substation through distribution substations to the customer AMI, new implementations for sensors will be critical in service areas, including fault detection, voltage optimization and load transfer. In addition to the AMI information, sensors on the distribution network will report faults to the local substation where the location will be known before repair crews are sent out, essentially reducing average outage times. In the voltage optimization area, sensors will allow automatic operation of distribution capacitors based on the needs of the station bus or transformer, which will result in lower sub transmission losses. Sensors will also allow for improved dispatcher notification of fuse blows and system wide voltage control with improved overall load management. Load transfer is another area where sensors will be critical. Here, with sensors that can report on capacity, advanced algorithms will allow feeder-to-feeder capacity transfer. The ability to include dynamic adjustment from overloaded feeders, transformers and stations will allow delays in capacity upgrades through improved load response to changing demand.
The generation and regional high voltage transmission area (from generation source through major transmission lines to major transmission substations that feed the distribution networks) is where there is currently the highest level of sensor penetration. The sensors used today, however, have limited capability and basically measure voltage, current, etc.; sensors for the smart grid infrastructure will allow more automated reaction to incoming information. For example, with sensors that monitor temperature and weather conditions of high power lines, changes to the maximum load of these lines can be automated. Like the distribution automation that will incorporate small distributed generating resources at the distribution level, new smart sensor networks will be necessary at the transmission level to incorporate large variable power sources, such as wind and solar. Sensors will be necessary as large wind and solar farms become pervasive and their inputs go into the transmission grid to move large amounts of electricity to population centers.
There are several challenges that will have to be addressed before the smart grid, and thus smart sensors, can progress as envisioned. First, security is a huge hurdle because of the potential for unhardened meters (points of access) in every home. The communications protocols on the smart grid are another open issue that needs to be standardized before widespread adoption and capital expenditures can be made. Currently, the closed ANSI C12.9 and C12.22 standards are most common, but we predict that the smart grid protocols will move to an open IEEE defines standard when widespread adoption of smart meters takes place.
Another open issue has to do with the data transmission methodology for the sensors. There are now over 20 communication technologies that are being evaluated at some level for intelligent grid control; WiMax, BPL, fiber optic, mesh WiFI, MPLS, and multi-port spread spectrum are just a few. Transmission technology must have the following characteristics: high bandwidth; IP enabled digital communication, encryption and cyber security support and VoIP support. Beyond communication of the network, the ability to use the network for communication with field crews for voice, real time grid instrument readings, etc. are all critical to the success of the smart grid.
The basic measurements that are needed for smart grid sensing fall into the categories of voltage sensing, current sensing, temperature sensing, moisture sensing, continuity sensing and phase measurements. Sensors for all of these exist but were not economical to integrate into the grid because in the last the electromechanical sensors had to be combined with discrete communications elements to communicate sensor data. Cost reductions, improvements in computing power, and reductions in power requirements due to the transition of these sensing and communications technologies to advanced CMOS technology nodes with system-on-a-chip levels of integration now allow integrated sensors with wired or wireless connections to communicate data to decision makers at a cost that allows for economical pervasive deployment.
Wireless sensor networks for AMI: The AMI represents the first two-way communication between the delivery infrastructure and the end consumer. The AMI will allow the central distribution system to monitor in real time the use of each individual node on the grid and allow information about outages to be transported back to the central command structure. The AMI represents a real opportunity for the emergence of wireless smart sensor networks within the home or small business space as well as sensor opportunities for utility outage detection.
Smart voltage sensors: Smart voltage sensors will be one of many evolving smart sensor components. While traditional regulators at the substation and on main distribution lines are part of the current electromechanical net, voltage sensors along spurs and near the end of the line that report back on current conditions are currently rare but will become pervasive as part of the emerging smart grid sensor network. Currently, without end of line sensors, long distribution lines must use inefficient high voltages at the feeder distribution point to ensure that the voltage at the end of the line is never below quoted specification. The addition of smart sensors at the end of the line can report real-time voltage data back to the feeder line so it can distribute the current at a lower voltage than it otherwise could without the sensor information, thus allowing more efficient use of the available electricity in the distribution network. This will be especially useful in rural areas with long radial lines.
Smart capacitor control: Currently, large capacitors are used on the grid to maintain voltage and power factors. While the capacitors are able to react to changing voltage, current or power factor, they are not monitored or controlled remotely. The addition of smart sensors that can monitor and control capacitor banks remotely will increase the overall efficiency of the distribution network.
Smart sensors for outage detection: In addition to smart meters, smart continuity grid sensors that can communicate with the central distribution points will improve outage detection.
Smart sensors for transformer monitoring: transformers represent one of the more expensive assets of local utility companies, but monitoring in general is limited to once a year manual dissolved gas analysis and periodic temperature observation with IR cameras. On-line sensors for dissolved gas analysis and temperature monitoring with two-way communications back to the substation represent a significant opportunity.
High voltage line temperature and weather condition sensors: Sensors will provide real-time temperature and weather conditions to improve the efficiency of high voltage distribution lines and allow more accurate dispatch of current in times of significant demand with reduced chance of outages due to line sag.
Distributed generation: For distributed generation to be viable in the emerging smart grid, sensors for load balancing between the greater grid and the distributed generating sources will be crucial.
Smart grid storage: Sensor opportunities are tow fold for smart grid storage. There will be opportunities both in monitoring the status of all battery cells in storage banks and in load monitoring and dispatch of energy from the battery bank to the greater grid.
Published: October 01, 2009 Category: Electronics and Devices
Large-area sensors are sensor arrays fabricated together on a substrate, often a flexible substrate. This distinguishes them from the garden variety of sensor, which is typically a single chip or chipset. The inherent performance advantages of large-area sensors are the same as any other array. First, there is the extra redundancy because the failure of one sensor in the array doesn't disrupt the entire array. Second - and in practice more importantly - large-area sensors provide for enhanced accuracy. his may be because the input from a sensor array can take the form of an average from all the sensors in the array, thereby factoring out anomalies. Or it may be because sensing over a large area speeds up response time in some critical way. A soldier in a uniform embedded throughout with sensors that can pick up on the first trace of a deadly toxin is better equipped and more secure than one who simply carries an individual sensor device around with him. The latter may detect the toxin only after the soldier is dead.
Large-area sensors are typically associated with "printed sensors," or at least printed sensors of a certain kind. Actually, the term "printed sensors" is somewhat ambiguous, perhaps deliberately so. Many sensors use screen printing for the deposition of electrode materials and have done so for many years. Although this kind of activity in one way or another generates large revenues every year, it is a mature area that hardly represents an opportunity in the usual sense of that word. There is another kind of printed sensor, however, and this is a sensor in which functional printing is used to create the entire sensor. It is this second kind of printed sensor that we are largely interested in here.
The connection between large-area sensors and printed sensors of the second kind is that printing potentially provides a way to create large-area sensors in a low cost manner; we are, after all, talking here about printing onto a flexible substrate, something that printing is very well equipped to do. Printing is also well suited to create multiple layers; in fact this is what functional printing is really about. This means, at least in theory, that layered sensor products can be created with functional printing. This may mean no more than the fact that both the sensing layer and the electrodes are created with printing techniques. But this fabrication concept may also be extended to producing sensors with multiple sensing layers, so that the sensor can sense multiple things. This multi-sensing function is one of the main trends in the sensor industry today and, as such, printing is in sync with bigger trends in sensing.
With all that said, there is no unbreakable link between large-area sensors and printed sensors. Large-area sensors could be created using the conventional deposition and patterning processes found in the semiconductor industry; vapor deposition and photolithography, for example. Or at the other end of the manufacturing technology maturity scale, one could imagine large-area sensors being created using the tools of nanoscale engineering. However, the prospect that printing will enable large-area sensors to be created at low cost, coupled with the fact that printing is obviously a mature technology seems to ensure that the association between large-area sensors and printing is and will be a strong one.
To date printed and large-area sensors have played second fiddle to other developments in thin-film and printed electronics. Thus, the latest developments in this field have already spawned substantial new companies and internal projects by major multinational companies producing solar panels, displays and even RFID tags. Although the processes and materials that are used in fabricating large-area sensors are very similar to those used in these other areas, it is hard to point to the same level of economic activity in large-area sensors as one finds in these other areas. Indeed, NanoIdent, a commercial firm that tried more than any other to give printed sensors a try for a year or so, has now gone out of business. And, even a cursory review of the literature on wide-area electronics quickly indicates that much of the most interesting work in this field is being carried on in university labs. With all this in mind, a cynic might conclude that large-area sensors are a fanciful and futuristic idea whose time has yet to come around and that such sensors have no near-term commercial importance.
Nonetheless, NanoMarkets believes that such a conclusion would be a false one, and that there will soon be significant business opportunities in the large-area and printed sensors sector. For a start, we believe that the large-area sensor business should be judged by the standards of the sensor industry, not by other thin-film and printed electronics businesses. Thus, the sensor industry as a whole is very fragmented, with many rather low-key, medium sized firms that are often not well known outside of their specialized community of customers and suppliers. Therefore, one should not expect the large-area sensor business to be filled with the large, high-profile firms that one sees in the e-paper, OLED or thin-film solar panel segments.
In fact, when one begins to list the firms that are already active with actual products in the world of large-area or complex printed sensors and combine them with the names of the industrial labs that are making serious efforts to commercialize such devices, the final tally of names is quite impressive. This tally would include - but certainly not be limited to - Agilent, Collotype Labels, Cypack, Frank Sammeroff, Future-Shape GmbH, IMEC, PARC, Peratech, plastic electronic, Sony and VTT. Most of these names are not exactly familiar ones in the average household. However, they are the sort of firms that characterize the sensor industry as a whole.
With a little digging, one realizes that real products do exist, or are at least heading toward commercialization, that fit into either the large-area sensor category or one that involves printing to create more than just electrodes. This certainly adds credibility to this emerging sector, but is hardly a business case in itself. After all, history is littered with stories of clumps of firms that forms a community of interest around new technology and maybe even brought a few products to market, only to see their dreams fly out the window.
NanoMarkets believes that large-area sensors are different in this regard mainly because large-area and advanced printed sensors seem to have a very broad range of potentially high-growth applications. At the same time, the latest developments in functional printing seem to provide a way to fabricate such sensors at low coast. The combination of these two facts suggests the possibility of a class of sensors that are both novel and with large and fast growing markets. The novelty of such sensors means that there will be good opportunities for suppliers to establish sustainable advantages in the form of proprietary manufacturing approaches and intellectual property.
Applications for large-area and printed sensors: This kind of sensor shows little likelihood of generating large revenues in the next couple of years. However, what makes us so bullish on this sector is that these sensors seem especially well suited to - and therefore likely to strongly penetrate - some of the fastest growing segments of the sensor market, which in turn we believe are driven by larger socioeconomic forces. While these segments of the market are all very different in terms of their business characteristics, they need similar kinds of large-area and printed sensors.
This means that the cost of developing these sensors can be amortized over a wide range of large applications and that firms supplying the basic sensor subsystem can sell into multiple segments. Of course, a sensor firm may also choose to move up the value chain and capture more of the value added by offering more complete products specialized for a particular application or user segment.
There are three general areas where we believe printed/large-area sensors could command a large market in the next five years or so. These are identified below.
Military and national security applications: Large-area sensors of various kinds seem extremely well suited for protecting large public buildings from terrorist threats as well as for use in military uniforms at a time when security concerns are heightened throughout the world.
Environmental monitoring: Large-area and low-cost printed sensors have potential for broadening the coverage of government and private environmental monitoring efforts. In particular, they are likely to serve as important components for the next generation of smart buildings. Thus, these sensors can be seen as an essential part of the "green tech" trend, which in itself is useful to sensor suppliers for market messaging.
Biomedical markets: Defined broadly enough this is already the largest market for printed sensors, because both diabetic test strips and DNA assays are already printed. The latter application is especially important because DNA testing is assuming a growing role in our society and because a new wave of biological testing based on proteomics is about to take over. In addition, large-area sensors are a vital component for the emerging product/market categories of smart bandages and human enhancement. Many of these opportunities for sensors are being driven by the needs of aging populations in the developing world.
These are by no means the only applications in which we see a market for the kinds of sensors discussed here. They have been considered by major aircraft firms to provide additional comfort and safety for passengers, for example. There are three areas that seems to present longer-term opportunities for advanced printed sensors and large-area sensors. These are:
Robotics: In the past four or five years, personal robotics in the form of robotic lawnmowers and vacuum cleaners has shown itself to be a sustainable source of revenues. In addition, and in Japan especially, impressive humanoid robots have been built as companions and concept products. Sensors are inevitably a part of robotics and large-area and printed sensors may have a special role to play in robotics; printed sensors in the form of lowering costs and large-area sensors in the form of smart skin technology. Robotics could be the next big technology revolution, akin to the PC revolution in its ability to generate new business. But this revolution is not likely to occur for several years.
Pervasive computing: There has been much talk in the last five years of a new kind of computing that involves the "Internet of Things," in which smart objects are connected over Internet like networks. As with robotics, printed and large-area sensors could play an important role in this sector. However, it seems to us that pervasive computing is still some way from proving itself commercially, so the size of its potential for generating sales of sensors remains to be proved.
Smart packaging: This is another area that still has to prove itself. There already seem to be some niches where smart packaging can make economic sense. Two examples are compliance packaging for pharmaceuticals and packaging designed to ensure the authenticity of branded products. Typically in the smart packaging area, cost points are very important and printing may help with that, especially since printing is already intrinsically a part of the packaging industry.
The reality of printing sensors and the alternatives: Printed electronics is either a new business or an old one, depending on how one defines the term. Thus, screen printing has been used for many years to create electrodes, membrane switches, capacitors, PCBs, etc. In these cases, printing was used almost as a coating technology or for the creation of large features. The new form of printed electronics, which has mostly emerged in the last five years, is intended to create complete devices with relatively small features, including sensors, although sensors has not been the area where most of the focus of printed electronics has been.
Both kinds of printed electronics are important, because of the more established areas of the printed sensor business (e.g., DNA assays) use printing in a traditional way. However, the new kind of printed electronics seems to offer the potential for fabricating complex sensors at very low cost points. In addition, as we have already noted, printing seems a natural fit for creating sensors in a large-area substrate.
This is the dream anyway. However, the new kind of printed electronics has had teething problems and has not arrived as fast as expected, a fact that needs to be considered in assessing the future of printed sensors. The current thinking on printed electronics is that initially printing will be used only for certain layers of making a device; the idea of creating a device entirely with functional printing has been put off for a while.
The term "printed electronics" typically refers to either screen printing, inkjet, or flexo/gravure processes. Functional inkjet has received a lot of attention because of its cited ability to create very small features and this fact could make inkjet highly suited to fabricating sensors. Flexo/gravure are very high throughput processes and are therefore suited to diabetic test strip products.
There are in fact dozens of different kinds of printing and almost all of them have been tried at one time as a means of fabrication for electronic devices including some sensors. One is perhaps worth a special mention here because it seems to have special relevance to sensors; this is transfer printing. In transfer printing, semiconductor devices are created using the conventional processes of the semiconductor industry. Then the devices are lifted off an existing rigid substrate and onto the flexible substrate. This process may be particularly suitable to sensors since it potentially enables high-performance arrays to be created on a flexible substrate, while, at the present time, more conventional printing methods tend to produce products with limited performance.
The mention of the semiconductor industry processes raises the question as to whether any of the processes used in this industry are appropriate to creating large-area sensors. The answer is probably yes, but only in the cases where performance trumps cost. And then finally, there is the possibility that some of the advanced tools of nanotechnology, such as nanoimprint lithography (NIL) or dip pen nanolithography (DPN), may have a role to play in the markets.
Published: October 01, 2009 Category: Advanced Materials
In the printed electronics industry, no other material comes close to printed silver. Besides being the most conductive of the metals, the native oxide that forms on its surface is also conductive, minimizing the impact of the oxide on the conductivity of the final film. This is in contrast to most other metals, on which native oxide films are all but unavoidable as well as insulating. In fact, all of the reasonable metallic alternatives to silver for printing have insulating native oxide films and thus silver's better suitability for forming conductive, particulate films goes beyond its higher bulk conductivity. The numerous contact points between particles--with high contact resistance due to the native oxide--dramatically reduce the conductivity of the final films of other metals, making them far less suitable for printing.
For this reason, silver was the first material used for inks and conductive printing on a wide scale. Easily applied silver inks and pastes are widely used in the electronics industry, most often for electrodes and similar features. Now, silver nanoparticle inks are being developed and used with the promise of improvements in performance, cost of use, and functionality with inkjet printing.
Silver pastes for screen printing have a long history and there are several applications that use them--and have used them for a long time--including membrane switches, printed circuit boards (PCBs), and capacitors. Rapidly shifting into this category is crystalline (c-Si) photovoltaics, which use thick-film silver pastes for the fingers on the front surfaces of the cells. These are established applications, but NanoMarkets still sees them as growth markets for silver inks and pastes.
Newer on the scene are nanosilver inks that capitalize on nanosilver's high surface area--and conductivity--in relation to its volume. Besides opening new markets--where conventional screen-printing is unsuitable--to the use of printed silver, these nanosilver inks also challenge the conventional thick-film silver pastes for use in the same established applications, with potential advantages in cost and/or performance.
Silver's industrial use as a conductor competes with its uses as a store of value (in coinage and bullion) and as a decorative metal (in jewelry and silverware, for example), as well as other industrial uses such as in photography and as a bactericide. As a conductor, silver also has a wide variety of uses including as a component of some solders and in high-performance cables, but these applications are not part of the electronics industry.
In nearly all of the applications in which printed silver is used, its major drawback is simply its cost. As silver prices have ridden the up and down--and up again--roller coaster in recent years, so too has the impetus for alternatives to silver for printed electronics.
Silver prices reached a 25-year high in early 2008, but then came tumbling down along with the rest of the economy. Now, only a year later, silver prices are back near the highs of 2008 and the pressure is on again to reduce costs. Does this mean that we will see a full-scale shift away from silver and into other conductive materials? Unlikely, although there is progress in and potential for developments to contain the cost of silver inks and pastes.
Two important facts lie solidly in silver's favor. First is the fact that silver typically makes up only a small percentage of the cost of the final devices in which it is used. Even with rising silver prices nearing $20 per ounce and beyond, the high values of the end-use devices still make the relative cost of silver inks and pastes relatively insignificant. It should be noted, however, that this might not quite hold true for extremely low-cost, low-value-added devices such as RFIDs.
Second, silver inks and pastes are essentially in a class of materials by themselves. The high conductivity of silver, the minimal impact of its oxide, the ease and efficiency of printing, and the decades of knowledge about and experience with silver inks and pastes set them apart from any other conductive film in terms of performance and "bang for the buck." Where printed silver is used, it is used because of its performance and suitability for the application.
Even considered on a cost basis, printed silver can often be used more sparingly than other films. Thinner films can be used with good conductivity and the well-established printing processes minimize waste. The quantity of silver consumed for a certain application can be an order of magnitude less than what would be consumed if a different material, or a different form of silver, were used. This makes the cost incentive for using alternative materials somewhat less than it appears.
There is no question that the bulk of development in silver inks and pastes in recent years has gone into the use of nanosilver. Nanosilver inks, often first developed for inkjet printing but then applied to higher-throughput flexography and gravure printing processes, are carving growing niches into materials markets for newer categories and devices. There are displays and thin-film photovoltaics, both of which have been using printed silver for some time, but there are also newer applications like OLED lighting, sensors, and RFID devices. In these applications, nanosilver inks can offer higher resolution, improved performance, and reduced material usage compared to thick-film silver pastes; in many cases opening the door to substantial markets for silver inks that would not be available to conventional silver pastes.
Some of the most rapidly developing applications for silver inks are those that use silver as a transparent conductor. Thin-film and organic photovoltaics, displays of various sorts, and OLED lighting all share the need for wide-area transparent electrodes and have most often used transparent conductive oxides (TCOs) like ITO for this purpose. But growing dissatisfaction with ITO and similar materials has led to increased development of alternative transparent conductors, including silver-based ones. OLED lighting has led this charge but all of the applications that use transparent conductors are either supporting some of this development or being targeted by the developers as potential markets.
Silver ink-based transparent conductors have several potential advantages over ITO and similar TCOs. Perhaps most importantly, silver is a flexible, ductile material and may be better suited to flexible electronics and roll-to-roll manufacturing than ITO. Transparent films of silver networks also have at least the potential to be more conductive than ITO at similar transparency (or more transparent at similar conductivity). Another potential advantage is that these silver-based materials are typically printed--unlike ITO--and thus reap some additional benefits. They are not subject to the tremendous amount of waste involved in the traditional sputtering processes used to deposit ITO, allowing significant potential for cost savings even though these silver materials are typically priced in a similar range to ITO materials. The printing process is also generally more gentle than sputtering, making it easier to use flexible substrates and to apply films over sensitive underlying layers.
Another fairly recent development is the use of nanosilver in otherwise conventional silver pastes. These silver nanopastes can be used for screen printing but can yield the benefits of higher resolution, reduced material usage, improved conductivity, and lower-temperature curing.
Published: September 01, 2009 Category: Advanced Materials
Nanocrystalline silicon offers to boost thin-film silicon electronics to higher levels of performance. The benefits of this higher performance are many. Nanosilicon can potentially extend the life of Moore's Law in a way that is much more compatible with the current status quo than are many of the proposed alternatives; it also has the potential to help thin-film silicon PV devices keep up with the performance of other photovoltaic materials. More generally speaking, nanosilicon can provide new options for materials and manufacturing--across several applications--to produce the performance and cost improvements required in the ever-shrinking, perpetually cost-squeezing electronics industry. But is nanosilicon really what is required for these advancements? This article examines this question in the course of evaluating current and emerging nanosilicon technology and markets. Clearly in some respects there is no better material than nanosilicon: silicon is by all counts the best-understood--and most abundant--semiconductor on the planet, not to mention the basis of nearly the entire electronics industry today.
Nanosilicon is not alone among options for boosting electronics to the next level. Other options are available or proposed; some of them are still quite futuristic and not yet viable--CNT transistors, for example--while others are more conservative in nature--tighter-pitch lithography on the currently-used materials, for example. Nanosilicon falls in between these extremes. While nanotechnology is a relatively new industry, using silicon is perhaps the best way to incorporate it without abandoning the significant investments in existing silicon-based fab processes and equipment.
Nanosilicon materials are a logical extension of microcrystalline silicon, which has been in use for many years in memory, photovoltaic, and other electronics applications. The polysilicon that has been the dominant gate material for MOSFET transistors--so central to the electronics and IC industry--for the past decade or more is in fact made of microcrystalline silicon. Nanocrystalline silicon represents at least an order of magnitude--and generally more than one--reduction in crystallite size, typically to the 5-100 nanometer size range.
The reduction of particle sizes to such a small scale has two important effects: an increase in the proportion of surface area of the crystallites to their volume, and the onset of quantum confinement. The large amount of surface area of nanocrystalline materials is an advantage because the charges on a semiconductive--or conductive--particle generally reside on the surface. This is why nanosilver preparations have enhanced conductivity versus conventional silver pastes; the same effect can boost nanocrystalline silicon performance as well.
Quantum mechanical effects become significant in crystallites a few nanometers in size. It is these effects that are at the core of many of the emerging applications for nanocrystalline silicon; for instance quantum confinement can improve the efficiency of both PV cells and lighting devices by essentially holding charges in place until the desired outcome--conduction to the electrodes in the case of PV cells; recombination to form light in the case of solid-state lighting--can take place. Quantum confinement can also have useful applications for memories and transistors.
Nanoparticles that are capable of such quantum confinement are generally called quantum dots. But quantum-confined nanostructures are still evolving and newer versions can exhibit quantum confinement in different ways. For instance, quantum wires only partially confine the charge carriers. These structures are much longer in one dimension than in the other two--forming a "wire" shape--and charge carriers can thus travel the length of the wire but cannot hop off of it. These and other morphologies of quantum-confined structures are discussed further in the main body of the report.
There are a handful of application areas that present both the potential for improvements due to the use of nanosilicon and the market volumes required to make it profitable. Chief among these, and farthest along on the route to commercialization, are photovoltaic cells and computer memories.
TF silicon PV cells are falling behind the other TFPV technologies in terms of conversion efficiency and power output, yet they are still rapidly growing in volume and can thus be a tremendous source of revenue, especially if a breakthrough makes them more competitive in terms of performance. Current single-junction a-Si PV cells are fairly easy to produce but only yield 9.5 percent conversion efficiency in the lab; significantly lower in actual production. Multijunction TF Si PV cells include either microcrystalline silicon or a Si-Ge alloy to produce the second--and sometimes third--junction; these cells still only achieve about 12 percent efficiency in the lab. a-Si and microcrystalline silicon PV technology are very mature by TFPV standards and there has been little movement in the champion cell efficiency records over the past several years. Nanosilicon, however, has been shown to produce performance improvements and may offer a route to higher conversion efficiencies for TF Si PV cells. Nanosilicon is relatively new on the silicon scene and the enhanced properties of nanomaterials yield perhaps the best opportunity to produce breakthroughs in TF Si PV cell performance.
The memory industry is continually pressed by the requirement for further miniaturization. There is a strong consensus in the sector that conventional flash memory technology has a limited lifetime because it is nearing the limits of its scalability. There have been various proposals--some of them backed by actual devices--for new memory technologies, including such exotic technologies as magnetic, phase-change, and carbon nanotube memories, but nanocrystalline silicon memories have been proven to allow a path to tighter packing without loss of performance, and without drastically altering the memory architecture.
Other applications are also in the works. Thin-film transistors are widely used for display backplanes, and nanocrystalline silicon can provide a route to less-costly production (by printing with nanosilicon inks) without sacrificing performance. Printed nanocrystalline silicon TFTs can also provide an alternative to organic TFTs for driving down the cost of RFID devices, a key step toward bringing RFID to the item level of tagging, and hence dramatically increasing the size of this market. Solid-state lighting is another market where nanocrystalline silicon can provide a choice in addition to organic electronics, in this case OLED lighting devices.
Published: September 01, 2009 Category: Advanced Materials
Printed silicon represents an untapped commercial opportunity in the thin-film electronics industry. Silicon is of course the most widely-used material in the electronics industry, and it is also the material of choice for thin-film transistors and many thin-film PV cells. But in these thin-film applications the cost of deposition is significant and the conditions required to achieve it are harsh. Printed silicon offers a likely route to easier, more rapid deposition of silicon films and thus promises to increase the volume and reduce the cost of many existing applications and also to bring about entirely new ones.
The high temperatures generally required of conventional silicon deposition methods make the use of flexible substrates--especially polymers--problematic. For this reason, while thin-film silicon has been deployed on flexible substrates in some applications, such products are currently limited. The most successful flexible products using thin-film silicon have used metal foil substrates, which are more tolerant of high temperatures than plastics, but can still suffer from dimensional instability as they go through heating and cooling cycles. And any devices layers that are already on the substrate are also subjected to the thermal treatment and the associated expansion and contraction.
High temperatures also add to the cost of deposition, as does the vacuum that is often required and the equipment needed to achieve it. Throughput is also typically low and in most cases--especially on rigid substrates--deposition must be done in discrete batch processes rather than continuously. To achieve higher throughput larger substrates can be used, but this also adds to the cost of the equipment as it must be built to accommodate the large substrate--or larger portions of a flexible one. And even though deposition may be directed onto the substrate, significant quantities of the silicon precursors do not get deposited there, whether they get deposited somewhere else where they remain unreacted and get discarded. Even though excess deposited silicon could be recovered for recycling, this is typically not economical as it is for rare or precious metals.
Printing with silicon potentially offers a solution to all of these issues: avoidance of high temperatures, atmospheric pressure deposition with relatively inexpensive equipment, high throughput, and little waste. There are challenges and opportunities that are inherent in using printed silicon to address these issues and the application areas where such benefits are likely to produce profits.
In the not-so-distant past, talking about "printed electronics" usually meant using conductive and semiconductive polymer inks. These materials were new on the scene, somewhat exotic and even "futuristic", and the range of possible structures and formulations--and electronic properties--was seemingly unlimited. Printed polymer electronics was widely believed to have tremendous potential for achieving performance comparable to conventional electronics.
But now a greater sense of realism about the prospects for printed polymer electronics has taken hold, at least among the mainstream electronics players. Organic electronics is not developing as rapidly as it was once expected to--in terms of cost and performance--and the applications for printed polymer electronics are quite limited at this time. The greatest near-term opportunities for organic electronics--mainly solid-state lighting--are quite different from what was considered most promising a few years ago.
Enter printed silicon. Now the benefits of printing--low temperature deposition, high throughput, etc.--appear to be achievable with a "mundane" material--the same one that the conventional devices are already made of, silicon. The advantages of using printed silicon are enormous--instead of developing a "whole new electronics" based on organic materials, just the deposition method is different--in theory--and printed silicon devices should function just as well as conventional ones. Silicon is the best-understood--and most abundant--semiconductor in the world and the basis of nearly the entire electronics industry today. Multiple billions of dollars of facilities and equipment are designed around the use of silicon and continuing to use silicon--even printed silicon--can continue to make use of much of that equipment and delay the requirement for costly new capital expenditures.
In the broadest sense, the addressable market for printed silicon is the entire thin-film silicon industry. This would include applications that don't currently use silicon but that would if the cost and performance were right. Realistically, the most promising addressable markets for printed silicon over the next few years fall into a handful of applications: thin-film transistors for active-matrix displays and RFID, photovoltaics, and solid-state lighting.
Active-matrix LCD displays account for the vast majority of displays produced annually, numbering in the billions (and still in the hundreds of millions even if handheld devices like mobile phones are excluded). This is a very cost-competitive market and so far cost reductions have been made mainly by increasing economies of scale--building larger and larger factories and using larger and larger sheets of glass as substrates. When it comes to the backplane--the part that includes the TFTs--there have also been attempts to reduce costs, including with the materials used in TFTs. The two major materials approaches to lower costs have been conventionally-deposited amorphous silicon and printed organic semiconductors, but both have resulted in lower-performing transistors--orders of magnitude lower in performance--and really represent a steep trade-off between cost and performance. And neither represents truly tremendous savings; the deposition process for amorphous silicon is still very similar to that for polycrystalline silicon and the organic materials still have a long way to come down in price. Printing the TFTs with silicon inks could provide another path to cost reduction--without such an impact on performance--beyond what has been achieved with the other approaches. And like printed OTFTs, printed silicon TFTs could be suitable for flexible substrates and highly-scalable roll-to-roll manufacturing. In fact, they are most likely even more suitable from the perspective of durability, since the organic materials used in OTFTs are extremely air- and moisture-sensitive.
While cost-reduction for the TFTs within display backplanes can marginally boost profits and market share within the display industry, the TFTs represent only a small percentage of the overall cost of displays and such savings are likely to have little impact on the overall display market. By contrast, transistors make up a larger proportion of the cost of RFID devices and producing them more cost effectively--by printing--could have a dramatic impact on the size of the RFID market. It is widely and reasonably believed that the long-term demand for RFID devices is very price elastic; the cost of lower-priced devices can be more easily absorbed by lower and lower-value items, and the benefits of incorporating them into the items or packaging eventually exceed the costs of doing so. Most RFID tags today are made on silicon wafers using conventional wafer-based processes, in fully-depreciated fabs to avoid the high cost of new plants and equipment. But there is only so far that this model can bring cost reduction, and attention has largely turned to printed RFID to enable lower price points. We are referring here, of course, to the RFID tag itself and not to the antenna which is often printed already.
These printed RFID tags have usually been envisioned as organic devices, but the performance and durability of silicon are definite advantages over polymers. And it is not a settled question whether printed organic RFIDs will be cheaper than printed silicon ones or vice versa. While organic electronic materials were not long ago widely expected to quickly become nearly as cheap as other plastics, this has not been happening as quickly as anticipated. Silicon, on the other hand, is abundant; lots of new capacity is now available and the silicon industry has adapted to the fact that the PV industry consumes at least as much silicon as the chip industry. Volume will bring down the cost of silicon ink components and formulations just as it was expected to for the organic inks. Printed silicon stands similar chances to printed organics at becoming the low-cost technology, especially when comparing equal performance levels.
In the area of photovoltaics, thin-film silicon already enjoys the advantages of low-cost materials, but its cost is apparently not low enough to offset its lower efficiency compared to other TFPV technologies: it is rapidly losing ground to CdTe PV as First Solar capitalizes on its growing economies of scale. But printing of silicon could boost TF Si PV cells on two fronts: by reducing their costs--due to the printing process--and by improving their efficiency. While initial efforts are to match the performance of other TF Si PV devices, nanocrystalline silicon has been shown to produce performance improvements and is most likely to be deposited by printing. Such printed nanocrystalline silicon PV cells could eventually give the (currently) higher-efficiency PV technologies a run for their money, with comparable performance and lower cost.
Solid-state lighting is another application in which printed silicon has great potential, but here that potential is likely to go largely unrealized for several years. There are no players making any significant strides toward commercialization, and OLED lighting appears poised to become the "new" rapidly-growing solid-state lighting technology, possibly discouraging potential printed silicon players from taking the risks required to bring "another" solid-state lighting technology to market.
Published: August 01, 2009 Category:
OLED lighting has received considerable attention this year from both the lighting and OLED communities. There are at least three different reasons for this. First, there are now OLED lighting products in the marketplace or close to being introduced; until this year, the OLED lighting story was all about R&D projects. Second, if progress continues toward addressing the technical and economic issues related to OLED materials, design and manufacture--and most observers are optimistic--there will be a compelling case to be made for OLED-based next-generation lighting technology. And finally, lighting appears to represent a better market than displays for OLED technology.
In the past year or so there have been strong indications that OLED lighting is on the verge of moving from "lab to fab." Osram, through the well-known lighting designer Ingo Maurer, has introduced the world's first "functional table light" based on its OLED technology. Philips has started selling its OLED-based lighting wafers under the name Lumiblade, and General Electric (GE) has announced that it will begin volume production next year of flexible OLED-based lighting panels. (GE's roll-to-roll manufacturing process for OLEDs was much discussed at industry conferences during 2008.)
It would still be easy for a cynic to dismiss these developments on a number of grounds. First, there's pricing. According to press reports, the Ingo Maurer table light is being priced at $25,000 and a piece of Lumiblade material the size of a mobile phone costs $700. Second, the actual production volumes of these products are almost vanishingly small. The Maurer light was initially introduced in a limited edition of 25. Lumiblade is being sold as a do-it-yourself kit for lighting designers and seems to be selling in only the dozens per month. And GE's promise of "volume" production in 2010 is just that, a promise.
But, as NanoMarkets analysts see it, these developments are actually reasons for excitement not cynicism. This is exactly the way that e-paper technology started out. The first e-paper products were also absurdly expensive, flexible clocks and watches costing thousands of dollars. Today, e-paper is the technology used in all the leading e-book readers and in many electronic shelf label products. It took two or three years from absurdly expensive flexible clocks to e-paper products that are produced in large volumes and that are affordable or even cost effective. E-paper is in a number of ways a very similar product to OLEDs, and NanoMarkets believes that it would be no surprise if OLED lighting followed a similar market trajectory.
Successful technology revolutions often begin with high-priced or novelty products; fiber optics is another example. So the market evolution patterns we see emerging in the OLED lighting market are quite encouraging on those grounds alone. In addition, the fact remains that a year to 18 months ago it was impossible to point to an OLED lighting product that could actually be purchased at any price. Today they are expensive but available.
As of mid-2009, OLED lighting is unquestionably a reality, but it is also an oddity. However, if it can be taken beyond this oddity phase the arguments for OLED lighting being a significant business opportunity are quite compelling:
The problem with all of this, however, is that as a general illumination technology, OLEDs are not quite there technically. But they are improving quickly. Two or three years ago, they were at an energy efficiency that was well under half that of today's most widely used energy efficient light, the CFL. Now they are close to achieving the same efficiency and the U.S. Department of Energy has a roadmap that shows that OLED lighting could substantially improve on the efficiencies currently being achieved by CFLs, perhaps by as much as a factor of two. OLEDs also seem to be approaching CFLs in terms of lifetimes.
In any case, while general illumination is (quite literally) the glittering prize for any new lighting technology including OLEDs, there are other ways to generate money from OLED lighting while the OLED lighting market waits for better performance numbers. Some of these markets are no more than niches, for example special medical applications. But others apparently offer substantial revenues. In particular, OLEDs seem well suited to backlighting markets. OLEDs have an advantage over HB-LEDs in this application because they do not need additional (and costly) optics to spread the light around, but for high-end backlighting applications (in laptops, for example) they may still be a little performance challenged. But for more modest application requirements, such as those of keypad backlighting, OLEDs can already deliver the goods.
Yet another reason for optimism about OLED lighting is that there are clear signs that an identifiable OLED lighting industry is beginning to form and some substantial firms are becoming involved. For example, OLED lighting has the lighting industry's biggest names behind it, including Philips, Osram and GE. To this list of OLED backers can be added Kodak, Konica Minolta, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, and Sumitomo as well as a longer list of established smaller but solid firms such as Novaled, Universal Display and others.
The involvement of such firms is certainly going to be a big plus for OLED lighting in a number of ways. The largest of the companies mentioned above have access to the biggest and best marketing channels. In addition, their brand names could ensure credibility for OLED lighting and get it onto the shelves of mainstream chain stores and distributors. This kind of backing, we believe, is in and of itself a good reason to see OLED lighting as a long-term opportunity. Many good technologies founder when they are unable to garner enough marketing clout after the initial kinks in the technology have been worked out. Firms of the kind listed above can make OLED lighting happen.
Another way in which the involvement of such substantial firms can make a difference is on the technical side, where they can harness their vast R&D resources to achieve improved performance metrics for OLED lighting. As we have seen, these metrics are not yet good enough to establish OLED lighting as a major player in the general illumination or the high-end backlighting markets.
Finally, it is important to recognize that the formation of an OLED lighting industry is not all "demand pull." The ranks of the industry are also being swelled by firms that no longer see the thrill in OLED displays. These displays have never really taken off as expected. Small OLED displays have been available for some time and the revenues from these devices add up to hundreds of millions of dollars annually. However, they offer very low margins and have a hard time competing with small LCD displays. OLED displays have been used mostly for MP3 players and for cell phone sub displays and although they are gradually finding their way into higher value main displays, this is happening only slowly.
The one place that OLED displays might have been able to make a big splash in better times is in the TV market. OLED TVs are ultrathin and offer highly vibrant colors. They are also very expensive and while they seem likely to compete effectively with high-end LCD TVs, they will still compete with LCD displays, which are only getting better. Sony has had a medium-sized OLED display on the market for some time, but has recently shelved plans for a larger OLED TV offering. Effectively, we believe, the OLED TV business has been set back a year or more by the recession.
To all of these negative factors currently impacting the OLED display business must be added the fact that active matrix OLEDs (AMOLEDs) have proved hard to build. And while all of the above problems are likely to get solved over the next five to seven years, right now OLED lighting looks to many like a better prospect for OLED technology than displays. Not only do OLED firms not have to deal with the AMOLED question and competition from LCDs, but there is the promise of government funding and regulations that would certainly benefit the OLED lighting industry. And every time NanoMarkets crunches the numbers, we come up with revenue potential for OLED lighting that looks much more substantial than what anyone is currently predicting for the OLED displays.
It's easy to conceptualize an OLED lamp, flush against the ceiling, replacing a fluorescent fixture or, indeed, replacing a passive ceiling tile with a tile that glows. And, as we have discussed above the vision of large, low-cost R2R-manufactured OLED lamps enabling walls of light is beginning to intrigue some of the biggest lighting firms, firms that have the money to make it happen.
The general consensus is that flat-panel lighting is likely to emulate flat-panel displays by starting out with products of modest capabilities (backlighting for cell phones and consumer electronics, for example), then evolving performance over time to capture more demanding applications. But these more demanding applications--even according to the more sober firms that have been in the lighting industry a long time--could involve some fascinating new opportunities. By combining color with shape, organic LEDs could create a new way of decorating and personalizing people's surroundings with light, for example.
Of course, there are still many challenges to the commercialization of OLED lighting. Some of these are technical and some are marketing oriented. We do not know, for example, to what degree consumers will be willing to pay for relatively expensive OLED lights (when they become available) when incandescent and fluorescent lights are so inexpensive. Will the extra efficiency and the ability to create novel kinds of lighting be enough to open up substantial general illumination for organic lighting? OLED lighting may be able to offer remarkable things such as flexible lamps, but again no one yet knows where the demand lies for that capability and where the perceived value will justify the additional cost.
There are no clear answers to such market questions yet. In part, this is because OLED display and lighting technologies are at such an early stage of their lives. Although OLED displays have already been shipping for almost ten years, their manufacturing operations are many generations behind LCD fabs. The largest OLED display yet fielded is only 11 inches in diagonal, and most of the devices on the streets are in the 2- to 3-inch realm. The potential for low-cost printing and R2R manufacturing processes also opens up exciting possibilities for price points that would greatly accelerate the adoption of OLED lighting. But so far, nobody has yet proven out their materials set and manufacturing processes in a real-world, high-volume environment. GE promises to do so next year.
We are at the beginning of OLED lighting evolution, and it's clear that early stage capabilities won't necessarily reflect the competitive picture years down the road. Which particular material sets, structures, architectures, manufacturing regimens, etc. hold the greatest long term potential is a completely open question at the present time.
Published: July 01, 2009 Category: Renewable Energy
When the first building-mounted photovoltaic (PV) systems were installed in reasonable volume sometime in the 1980s, they were generally secured onto a rooftop with little regard for appearance. It was the case in those early days that rooftop P
Published: July 01, 2009 Category: Renewable Energy
Printing is not a new concept for the photovoltaics (PV) industry; in fact, it has relied on screen printing to create the top electrodes for crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV for some time. This is a somewhat unexciting application, but one that accounts for almost $200 million in sales of silver inks and pastes. In addition, this means that the PV industry is at least familiar with functional printing and what it can deliver.
An obvious next step is to use functional printing to create the core PV layer itself. The reason why a solar cell firm would want to do this is primarily one of cost. Although PV producers might be loath to admit it, at any given efficiency level, their products are something of a commodity. There really isn't that much to choose between one brand and another other than price. This is one reason why panel makers build the factories close to key geographical markets; solar panels are heavy and transportation can add considerably to costs. So making the right production location decision can be critical.
So can choosing the right manufacturing technology and--in theory at least--printing seems to fit in quite well in this regard. Not only is it an approach that is well understood in the PV industry, but printing is generally considered a low cost approach compared with other deposition technologies that are taken from the semiconductor industry. This is true at the level of capital expenditure and operational expenditure. As far as the latter is concerned, printing supposedly reduces the amount of energy and material consumed in the manufacture of solar cells compared with other more traditional deposition approaches. This is obviously important intrinsically, but also helps preserve the image of PV as a "green technology." In addition, printing is uniquely a deposition and a patterning technology. This may be important for texturing electrodes (or sometimes even the absorber layer), which translates directly into higher performance cells.
Finally, printing has the advantage that it is very well suited to flexible substrates and this in turn means that it is a good choice for building integrated PV (BIPV) products; these value-added products are yet another way that PV companies can distinguish their products in the marketplace.
This is the theory anyway. The reality is a little different. For a start, using printing, as opposed to a high-temperature manufacturing processes, usually leads to a substantial reduction in performance in the final cell, and this is only partially offset by the fact that one process can be used for deposition and texturing. Since performance (i.e, energy conversion efficiency) is the key measure of the usefulness of a cell, this is a big limitation. In addition, casual descriptions of printing PV make it sound like all one can merely buy a screen printing machine or industrial inkjet and be up and running printing PV in a month or so. The reality is that printing PV can be very difficult technically, with lots of operational problems standing between the inception of an idea and it realization. This is a fact that many in the PV industry seem blissfully unaware of.
With all that said, printed PV definitely seems like an opportunity for the printed electronics (PE)/functional printing community, which seems to have floundered somewhat in the past year. First this community has never been able to keep up with some of its more extravagant promises from its early years. Second, it has been hit hard by the worldwide economic downturn. What PV represents is a remaining addressable market where printing can be applied and which is still in growth mode, although at lower rates than were expected a year or so back. This has caused a repositioning in the PE industry. For example, several conductive silver ink makers are now specifically rebranding their inks and pastes for the PV market and at least one PE start up that was focusing on printed transistors just a few months back is now a PV company!
Until recently, almost all commercially produced solar cells relied on crystalline silicon (c-Si) technology. This technology has been able to deliver adequate conversion efficiency at acceptable costs, which makes it suitable for a wide range of applications, from providing electricity in remote locations that are not served by the electrical power grid to large-scale power plants. However, c-Si is inherently unprintable in the usual sense. The only way that printing can be applied to semiconductors such as c-Si is in the form of transfer printing where high-performance semiconductor devices are created using classic semiconductor processes and then transferred to flexible substrates using a printing-like process. Semprius is doing something like this to produce concentrated PV devices using GaAs technology.
Thin-film and organic PV (and the related area of dye sensitive cells, DSCs) are a much better prospect for printing and both have grown considerably in the past few years, in absolute and relative terms. With regard to absolute growth, the reason consists in all the factors that have promoted PV as a whole: renewability, low carbon emissions, price stability, tax incentives, feed-in tariffs and so on. With regard to relative growth, the initial reason for the interest in TFPV (and perhaps OPV/DSCs) was the shortage of c-Si. But this shortage has dissipated and the main drivers for TFPV, OPV and DSCs now are (at least potentially) the advantages of low-cost, easier manufacturing and the ability to do that manufacturing on flexible substrates, which is a plus compared to the dominant crystalline silicon PV. We have already noted that printing of these newer forms of PV is easier said than done and an additional issue with many of the materials that are used for TFPV and OPV/DSC is that they cannot easily be turned into inks. This often yields some competitive advantage to skilled ink makers and proprietary printing processes.
Although silicon-based PV of one kind or another is by far the most common kind of PV, it is the one to which printing has been applied the least, if one (once again) excludes the electrodes/contacts. Where printing has been applied is mostly in niches, with perhaps the most important being Innovalight. This company uses silicon nanoparticle ink for its a-Si PV cells. The ink is in turn created with "radiofrequency plasma" technology. However, although it uses silicon, the expected performance of Innovalight's products, which are due to appear in 2009, are closer to that of OPV than any other kind of silicon PV and it is not really appropriate to think of this technology as being grouped with c-Si or a-Si PV from an addressable market standpoint. The other kind of printing that might have some general appropriateness for TFPV is transfer printing. The new direction that Semprius has taken toward PV seems to illustrate how printed silicon could be used in the PV market. We note, however, that Semprius' current activity involves GaAs, not silicon.
The TFPV/OPV technologies--other than the ultra-expensive GaAs solution--may never quite catch up to c-Si in terms of efficiency. However, they might be able to demonstrate the right combination of efficiency, cost, flexibility and low weight to make them competitive with c-Si PV in a number of different important addressable markets. In fact, we are already beginning to see this happen to some extent with the growing number of on-grid applications for a-Si PV and more dramatically CdTe PV.
NanoMarkets believes that printing will be one enabling technology to reach these goals. As discussed at the beginning of this chapter, there are plenty of reasons to believe that printing is a good way to lower costs in the PV industry when compared to more traditional vapor deposition methods, although as we also discussed there are major challenges to this goal. There are few examples, if any, of firms using printing to create the absorber layer for CdTe PV at the present time, although the literature does talk about screen printed CdTe. Part of the issue here, however, is that the CdTe sector is overwhelmingly dominated by one firm--First Solar. Thus the lack of a presence for printing in the CdTe sector says more about the fact that this one specific firm does not use printing than it does about the potential for using printing in CdTe. We note that even now, screen printing is being evaluated as a way to reduce costs and improve material consumption for the CdS and CdTe layers in CdTe-based PV.
Printing is being used by a few firms in the budding CIGS sector. One such company, Nanosolar, has developed a CIGS-based ink and recently started shipping these solar panels. Nanosolar claims that printing solves an important uniformity issue for CIGS, which is keeping the particles uniform in the proper atomic ratios, especially over large areas. In the CIGS sector, there is a need for high throughput low-cost processes because other common production methods (evaporation of the elements in vacuum; sputtering of the metals followed by selenization with H2Se) suffer from relatively slow throughput, poor material utilization, and relatively high vacuum. Apart from Nanosolar, several companies and institutes are evaluating ink formulations, some based on nanomaterials, for the CIGS absorber layer.
CIGS is usually billed as the TFPV technology of the future, so perhaps the fact that printing seems reasonably well accepted in the CIGS sector speaks well for the future of printed PV. On the other hand, nothing is certain in the CIGS sector at the present time, including how successful it will be in the long run. Nanosolar is known to have built significant capacity for printed CIGS PV, but it is far from clear how much of that capacity is being used.
Meanwhile, printing has already become very closely associated with OPV in part because this is the chosen fabrication method for Konarka, the firm with the largest mindshare and dominant IP portfolio in this space. This company uses a roll-to-roll printing process to produce its OPV cells, which it sells under the brand Power Plastic. Its process technology is similar to the printing used to make photographic film, and thus Konarka was able to get up and running fairly quickly by purchasing Polaroid's manufacturing facility in New Bedford, Mass. Konarka's take on the virtues of printing is that its use instead of traditional vapor deposition techniques increases throughput, significantly reduces energy consumption, and thus lowers the cost per watt of its product--a must for PV technologies to compete with traditional energy forms.
But with all the interest in printing PV, the fact remains that the most prominent role of printing in the PV industry today is in c-Si PV, which use thick-film printed silver electrodes on the front, and often on the back as well. Although this is a reasonably large market, it is one in which suppliers are mostly well established so it is not really an opportunity in terms of new market entry potential. The one caveat here is that there may be some room for printing of nanosilver contacts in c-Si, or indeed any kind of PV cell, if higher conductivity in electrodes are shown to lead directly to higher performance of the cells.
TFPV and OPV/DSC technologies are at a stage where the materials and fabrication methods used for metallization are not completely established, so printing could find some opportunities here. However, in many cases transparent conducting oxides (TCOs) are being used for top contacts and TCOs have not shown themselves to be well-suited to printing, although both ZnO and ITO inks exist. Transparent conductive polymers are sometimes easier to print, but would mostly play a role in the OPV sector.
The interesting, longer term potential for printing is in the nanomaterials sector. Theoretically, nanomaterials (including carbon nanotube preparations) could be highly conductive, offer good transparency and be relatively inexpensive. And current research directions seem to indicate that printing will be an important part of the deposition and patterning of nanomaterial-based electrodes.
Finally, while much of the attention in the area of electrode development is currently focused on the front/top electrode, this is because demanding performance requirements are necessary for this electrode. For precisely this reason, printing, which as we noted earlier has its own performance issues, could prove to be well matched to the back/bottom electrode and to the related reflective layer where this exists.
Published: June 01, 2009 Category: Advanced Materials
Recently completed market analysis conducted by NanoMarkets and published in our recent study, "Conductive Coatings Markets: 2009 and Beyond" indicate that by far the fastest growing opportunity in the conductive coatings market at the present time lies in the area of nanomaterials. While negligible in 2009, NanoMarkets expects sales of conductive coatings using nanomaterials to reach more than $625 million by 2016.
There are two reasons for this rapid growth. First, nanomaterials offer superior conductivity. They are often inherently more conductive than the equivalent non-nano formulations. Metallic nanoparticles are, for example, more conductive than simple metallic powders because of the higher surface area to volume ratio of nanoparticles. In other cases--carbon nanotubes are a good example here--the additional conductivity is due to the physical characteristics of the nanostructure. Note that this is something quite new in the development of conductive coatings. In the past, deviations from the use industry standard metallic coatings--to metallic compounds or conductive polymers, for example--have been prompted not by improved conductivity, but rather by reasons of cost, environmental suitability or other secondary physical characteristics such as ease of deposition.
Second, there is a growing list of applications for conductive coatings where this extra conductivity is more than just an advantage; it is actually a key market enabler (at least potentially) for the success of new products. While enhanced conductivity is presumably always a good thing to have in conductive coatings, conductive nanocoatings with commercial potential can actually prove to be an enabling technology. A case in point is in thin-film photovoltaic cells, where the primary measure of performance is energy conversion efficiency. It has been shown in the lab that the best performing cells, the champion cells, as they are called, depend heavily on the quality of their electrode materials. In some cases, certain kinds of photovoltaic materials may only be commercially useful in a given application if the conductive coatings used for electrodes are conductive enough to provide for adequate photovoltaic efficiencies. Some future breakthrough in conductive nanomaterials could, for example, enable organic photovoltaic cells to become useful in areas ruled out today by the current low efficiencies.
The "rub" as they say lies in the words "future breakthrough." There are few cases today where conductive nanocoatings are used in practical applications. And many of the early reports from the conductive coatings front are not especially impressive. For example, coatings using single-walled carbon nanotubes have been used instead of indium-doped tin oxide (ITO) for display electrodes, but despite the high hopes, in practice have sometimes proved to have conductivity lower than that of commercially used ITO. Nonetheless, nanomaterials are at an early stage of technological and commercial development and they do have the potential to make a leap forward in terms of price/performance ratios.
This cannot be said about most of the other alternatives to standard metallic coatings; metallic oxide preparations have shown no appreciable performance improvements in a couple of decades, for instance. There may be considerable potential for improvements with conventional conductive materials, but not revolutionary breakthroughs. Only nanomaterials, or possibly composite materials in which such nanomaterials are a critical part of the mix, seem to offer an opportunity for what might be called "next generation" conductive coatings.
Today, much of the work in conductive nanocoatings involves carbon nanotubes. But this is certainly not the only focus. Other types of nanomaterials could also play an important role in this area including non-carbon nanostructures (nanorods, nanowires, etc., made from metallic oxides, for example) and especially coatings and pastes that use metallic nanomaterials (such as nanosilver).
The focus on nanotubes, ironically, reflects the fact that early attempts to launch an advanced carbon nanotube electronics based on nanotube transistors was rebuffed by the semiconductor industry (who preferred to stay with the silicon they knew) and led to a lot more technical difficulties than originally expected. Responding to this, carbon nanotube electronics has begun to focus on less ambitious products and conductive coatings are an important part of this effort. The two "big" names in this effort are Eikos and Unidym, although there are other less prominent players in this space and there is also a considerable amount of activity in this area in university labs. Unidym has been especially active of late and has targeted its carbon nanotube-containing conductive film as an ITO substitute for applications markets including touch screens, solar cells, flat-panel displays, and solid-state lighting. It should be noted, however, that mechanical robustness, rather than conductivity is the main selling feature of these films at the present time. Other firms and research groups to be watched in this space include RQMP, Sony's Display Technology Laboratory, and the Samsung Advanced Institute of Technology, along with research groups at UCLA, the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Sungkyunkwan University, the University of Texas and the University of Nevada.
The other type of nanomaterials used in conductive coatings is metallic nanoparticles. So far we are seeing two ways in which this approach is being developed with commercialized products in mind. One of these is again, as with the Unidym example above, in the area of ITO replacement. The other involves nanopastes (usually silver nanopastes) for screen coating/printing.
In the ITO replacement space, the firm that is usually cited is Cambrios, which is marketing a solution-processable transparent conductive coating material (ClearOhm ink) and a transparent conductive-coated film (ClearOhm film). The film is claimed to produce a surface resistivity of about 30 Ohm/sq with very high light transmission (> 92 percent). The technology is based on high aspect ratio metallic particles (nanowires), which can be deposited via a low cost non-vacuum based method. Working with Sumitomo and Chisso Corporation, Cambrios is planning to focus on ITO replacement applications in the conventional LCD space.
Nanopaste development is by contrast more focused on replacing conventional metallic pastes in thick-film electronics. Not all of thick-film electronics would be amenable to this kind of evolution to newer materials. Unless price improvements were involved, and they seldom are, there are areas where nanopastes could bring only marginal advantages, if that, but there are other areas where the advantages could be manifest.
By way of illustration of where such pastes could be used, Advanced Nano Products (ANP) offers silver nanopastes that it says can be used in PDP electrodes, flexible PCBs, EMI shielding, solar cells, other flexible display and printed electronics applications, as well as low reflection and anti-static functions including conductive coatings on CRTs. According to ANP, one of its pastes is currently used in MLCC capacitors. Harima Chemical is another firm offering nanopastes of this kind, and Henkel Electronics, one the leaders in the field of thick film electronics, is known to have been working with researchers at UC-Berkeley to develop high-performance, novel nanoparticle conductive materials for several years, with a commercial product announcement expected soon.
As noted at the beginning of the article, the extra performance inherent in nanocoatings--mostly enhanced conductivity, but also the flexibility, physical resilience and thinness of coatings--have the ability to enable new types of products. Again, the paradigmatic example here is organic photovoltaics, which lag all other kinds of PV in performance but where improvements in electrode material could help solve this problem and let OPV enter new markets. Research work has already shown that carbon nanotubes may be better in this regard than commonly used TCO materials in OPV cells.
OPV is a niche market at the present time. By contrast, the touch-screen display market is already well developed, but it is really the tip of the iceberg. Not only are touch screens themselves a rapidly growing product area, but they are just part of an even faster growing sector: touch-based computer input, an area generally referred to as haptics. Haptics will not take off without some highly resilient and highly conductive electrode materials. Already there is considerable work being carried out to replace the ITO, which tends to crack after a lot of banging and poking with styluses and pens, with longer lasting, less brittle nanomaterials. This work could well spill over into other areas where haptics is being applied such as robotics, gaming and medicine.
Sensors are seldom identified as an opportunity by conductive coating manufacturers. Nonetheless, it seems likely that enhanced conductive materials/coatings could be important in meeting the needs of the sensor industry because high conductivity often translates into more sensitivity; and this again would seem to favor the use of nanomaterials coatings for electrodes. Nanosilver pastes appear to have especially good prospects in the sensor industry since silver is the most conductive material known to man and conductivity translates into more sensitive sensing, as it were. More specifically, in terms of actually enabling new kinds of sensors, we note the trend toward large-area sensors being created on plastic substrates. These often require electrode materials that are both highly conductive and ones that can be worked with at modest temperatures, since high temperatures damage the substrate. Nanosilver pastes may, again, be the solution here, since they typically need relatively low temperature after being deposited.
Another area where nanomaterials may prove useful and effective is lighting. Thus, various nanomaterials have been used in certain research environments for high-brightness LEDs, so perhaps there may be some new revenue generation possibilities coming from this direction too.
Conductive coatings, of course, are also used widely for EMI/RFI shielding and nanomaterials may also have some use here, since the effectiveness of metallic EMI/RFI shielding depends on the small size of the metal particles. The kind of product that may have some potential is represented by Cima NanoTech's nanosilver-based emulsion, which is being targeted toward the EMI/RFI sector. Nanotubes have also attracted attention for EMI/RFI shielding and for certain electrostatic shielding (ESD) applications. Applications outside of the electrode space are of increasing importance because of the apparently unstoppable trend toward mobile computing, which is creating a growing need for more and better EMI/RFI shielding, and the trend in the semiconductor industry down Moore's Law, creating a need for better ESD protection.
Conventional conductive coatings have not changed all that much for a long time. This fact constrains the real opportunities that exist in the conductive coatings space. Even where a sector of the market is inherently large, it is hardly an "opportunity," since the sector is likely to be adequately served by long established suppliers.
The arrival of commercial nanomaterials in the past five or six years has opened up a new dimension of materials choice, and, as we have seen, new business revenues potential. Primarily because of the smaller particles involved, coatings, pastes and inks made with nanomaterials can be more conductive. In addition, metallic nanocoatings could potentially be thinner than other kinds of coatings, which could be important for some applications, especially when the materials are expensive or need to be highly flexible. Finally, coatings based on nanomaterials may also dry faster because, for example, sintering temperatures decrease as the particle size decreases.
These are all technical performance parameters, of course. But they are also parameters that marketers in the conductive coatings business can tap into to build their businesses.
Published: June 01, 2009 Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy
Rapid growth in the photovoltaic industry has resulted in equally rapid growth in consumption of the materials used for manufacturing PV cells and modules. This, in turn, has led--and will continue to lead--to tremendous opportunities for the suppliers and others involved with these materials, in addition to the device makers themselves.
While a lot of attention is given to the active materials of PV cells, other materials, such as metals that make up the electrodes, also play an important role. One such metal tin, while small in terms of volume when compared to its other industrial uses, nonetheless represent a rapidly growing use of the metal. Tin is cheap by photovoltaic materials standards. In an industry that uses silver, indium, tellurium, and germanium--all in comparable quantities to tin--the cost of tin is one drop in a rather large bucket. But tin is a critical part of the photovoltaic devices for which it is used. Primarily, tin is used in the transparent electrodes of thin-film PV cells as either ITO or as doped tin oxides such as fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO).
The photovoltaic applications of tin, while very small in terms of volume when compared to the other industrial uses of tin, nonetheless represent a rapidly growing use of the metal. One obvious use of tin in PV devices is in ITO, the dominant transparent conductor used by the display industry and others requiring both conductivity and transparency in the same material. The PV industry consumes some of that ITO to form the transparent electrodes on the front (and in some cases also the back) of TFPV cells, and growth in TFPV is driving up the overall volume of ITO consumed by it (although the penetration of ITO into that market is actually falling). ITO has the drawback that it depends on costly indium, and this is a major reason for its decline in penetration in the TFPV market.
But tin oxide is also used without the indium, also to form transparent electrodes. Tin oxide is generally doped with fluorine (FTO), but can also be doped with other materials such as antimony. Aside from its lower cost, FTO can easily be applied directly to glass and is thus often preferred for TFPV cells built in superstrate configuration--where the front electrode is applied directly to a glass substrate, through which light travels (when in use) to enter the cell.
Photovoltaics represents only a tiny portion of tin consumption, and the portion is still small when only tin oxide is considered. Tin oxide is widely used as a coating in other industries because of its conductivity, transparency, and low cost; for instance, tin oxide is used as an antistatic coating on architectural glass. Tin itself has more uses, in much higher volume. It is a major component in bronze and in many solders and other low-melting alloys. It is used in so-called "tin cans" and "tin roofs," which are actually steel coated with tin for its excellent corrosion resistance. Tin is also used to make "float glass" in which flat panes of glass are formed by allowing the glass to harden while floating on a pool of molten tin. There are also various synthetic chemicals that contain tin.
In one sense, specialty metals are commodities and as such follow traditional supply-demand economics. To this extent, providers focus on competitive advantages in cost, product lines, or service. However, photovoltaics (and especially thin-film photovoltaics) is a high-growth industry, and will drive tremendous growth in demand for the materials used by it, including certain specialty metals. Companies that recognize new or growing opportunities relating to specialty metals in photovoltaics, and capitalize on those opportunities, will stand to benefit ahead of others.
Any photovoltaic cell must both allow light into the cell for conversion to electricity, and also conduct that electricity into a circuit. This means that the conductive electrodes in front of the cell must allow light through. The first high-volume PV cells--crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV cells--did not (and still, for the most part, do not) use TCOs, or other transparent conductors for that matter. Instead, c-Si PV uses finely patterned line structures (called fingers) that only obstruct a portion of the incident light from entering the underlying cell.
With the advent of thin-film amorphous silicon (a-Si) PV cells in the 1980s in portable, low-power applications like solar calculators, transparent conductive oxides (TCOs), specifically tin-doped indium oxide (ITO), began to make a significant showing in the PV market. These thin-film cells do not have the carrier mobility of doped crystalline silicon, so their surfaces must be uniformly coated with a conductor to effectively capture the carriers generated in the cell, and the conductor must be transparent to allow light into the cell. ITO was then, as it is now, the established "standard" transparent conductor and it was used for the front electrodes. ITO worked well in these rigid a-Si PV cells on glass substrates, but it was expensive because of its indium content.
During the 2000s, ITO has lost much of its market share within PV to less-costly TCOs, mainly aluminum-doped zinc oxide (AZO) and fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO). This has been the result of two phenomena. First is the reduced penetration of ITO within a-Si PV as the cost advantages of alternative TCOs have been realized. Also important has been the emergence of CdTe PV and CIGS PV, neither of which uses much ITO at all. CdTe PV, brought into high-volume manufacturing by First Solar, uses FTO, and CIGS PV, not yet as high in volume but commercialized to a significant extent, uses mostly AZO. NanoMarkets expects these trends to continue as CdTe PV and CIGS PV gain market share, and as a-Si PV continues to focus on cost reductions.
ITO contains about 10 percent tin oxide by weight (the rest being indium oxide). While all the recent attention on ITO (mainly relating to its cost) has naturally focused on the indium component, its tin component is also important. Some alternative indium-containing materials, indium oxide and indium zinc oxide, have been proposed for some of the applications for which ITO is used, however, they have not caught on largely because they still involve similar quantities of indium and are thus at least as costly as ITO.
Besides its cost, other characteristics of ITO make it less than perfect as a transparent conductor. It is neither very transparent nor very conductive as materials go; rather it simply represents a good trade-off between transparency and conductivity. It is also fairly brittle, and thus not particularly suited to any application in which flexibility is key. And, ITO does not generally lend itself easily to low-temperature manufacturing processes, limiting the processes that can be used with it. Still, in the applications that use ITO the most (mostly displays of various types), ITO is by far the dominant transparent conductor. This dominance has also caused ITO to, somewhat ironically, dominate the market for the transparent electrodes of organic PV (OPV), which is the least commercially developed of the PV technologies NanoMarkets covers.
OPV's strong reliance on ITO can be understood when one considers that OPV has had many obstacles to surmount on its path to commercialization, such as its low conversion efficiency and its extreme sensitivity to oxygen and moisture. An adequately performing, off-the-shelf transparent conductor allows OPV developers to focus on other issues as they race to make OPV commercially viable. In the last few years, though, the transparent electrodes have come back to the forefront and there have been numerous developments in terms of substitutes for ITO in the OPV space. NanoMarkets expects OPV to use proportionally less and less ITO as it moves toward lower costs, one of its chief objectives.
Tin oxide typically requires higher deposition temperatures than ITO, making it generally less suitable than ITO where the high-temperature processing would be a problem. However, tin oxide has found significant use where the deposition temperature is not an issue, as in the case when the TCO is applied directly to a glass substrate. This is generally done for TFPV cells in superstrate configuration, including CdTe PV cells and many a-Si PV cells.
Tin oxide is well-suited to direct application onto glass, and FTO can even be applied to glass while the glass is being made, eliminating a process step. First Solar's CdTe PV cells use FTO, as do many a-Si PV cells built with the superstrate configuration. CIGS PV cells, however, are built in substrate configuration and tin oxide is thus more problematic because it would be applied onto the underlying device layers (which would be impacted by the high-temperature processing). For CIGS PV, AZO has become the TCO of choice, except in some cases where ITO is used.
TFPV on glass is growing rapidly and NanoMarkets expects the use of tin oxide to grow along with the superstrate configurations of a-Si PV and CdTe PV. But on flexible substrates--which are gaining favor in order to enable flexible applications or simply to take advantage of the cost-saving benefits of roll-to-roll processing--the high-temperature deposition conditions required of tin oxide are again an issue, even when applied directly to a flexible (polymer, for transparency) substrate.
Published: June 01, 2009 Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy
Significant efforts are underway to enable the use of roll-to-roll printing to manufacture CIGS PV cells. NanoMarkets believes that these will result in significant new business revenues. Our research suggests that inks for the CIGS absorber layer will grow from $8.4 million in 2011, to close to $189 million in 2016, about 18 percent of total revenues for the CIGS absorber layer materials.
Because the choice of manufacturing process goes hand in hand with the type of materials that can be used, these efforts to develop printed CIGS center around materials developments. In particular, several firms and research institutions are developing nanoparticle-based ink formulations and flexible substrates to allow for roll-to-roll printing of the absorber layer and the electrodes.
CIGS PV is coming to be known as the rising star of the TFPV world. It has achieved the highest efficiency of any thin-film PV technology--20.0 percent efficient champion cell created in its lab. Although this falls below the efficiency of crystalline silicon solar cells (barely below that of multicrystalline cells at 20.3 percent efficiency), CIGS cells can be substantially cheaper because of their reduced material usage and the ability to manufacture them using low-cost processes.
However, most of the current CIGS PV cells are manufactured using costly evaporation processes. This, in part, could hinder the ramp up of CIGS PV once the economy turns around. As such, firms including HelioVolt, International Solar Electric Technology (ISET), and Nanosolar are developing nanoparticle-based inks for high-volume manufacture of CIGS PV. NanoMarkets believes that ink-based processes, while not significant in 2009, will grow to account for more than 25 percent of CIGS volume by 2016. As the pioneering companies demonstrate inks in high-volume manufacturing, we expect more companies to enter with outsourced nanoparticles and inks.
The inks currently being used for the CIGS absorber layer consist of oxide or selenide nanoparticles of the metals copper, indium, and gallium, dispersed as a colloidal suspension in a solvent. The nanoparticles are intended to form a solid layer of CIGS upon heat treatment, similar in function to layers applied by the conventional methods.
ISET is one example of a company using nanoparticle oxides for its CIGS ink formulation. HelioVolt and Nanosolar, on the other hand, offer metal selenide nanoparticles. The companies claim that selenides avoid the need for reduction of the oxides and the additional thermal processing step that the reduction requires. The use of these selenide nanoparticles is made possible by the low melting points of copper selenide and indium selenide. At the annealing temperature, these compounds melt and help form the new CIGS phase and grain structure.
Nanosolar has developed a method to embed CIGS into thin polymer films using a roll-to-roll process. To sinter the ink coating, the company uses rapid thermal processing (RTP) to flash heat a thin layer for several picoseconds, leaving the rest of the material untouched. Not only does this process reduce materials costs, but it also reduces energy consumption compared with other approaches, according to the company.
HelioVolt's FASST process creates the CIGS absorber layer in two steps. The first step deposits two precursor layers that form the chemical basis of the CIGS layer. The second step synthesizes those materials into an actual CIGS layer: rapid heating induces a chemical reaction between the two precursor films, a process that is said to be similar to anodic wafer bonding.
Currently, it appears that CIGS manufacturers prefer to develop and produce their own nanoparticles and ink formulations. However, there are several firms, including American Elements and Nanoco Technologies, that offer nanoparticles of CIGS and its precursors, and new CIGS PV entrants may choose to outsource their nanoparticle and ink production.
This printing concept is not necessarily limited to the CIGS layer. Printing of the zinc oxide top electrode, though not yet feasible for CIGS PV, could result in additional cost savings.
The full potential of manufacturing CIGS PV cells via printing will not be obtained without the use of flexible substrates, which will allow for roll-to-roll processing. But changing the substrate has proven to be a non-trivial exercise. The following are some of the issues that arise from using a flexible substrate: Undesirable impurities may be introduced into the absorber layer; sodium, which diffuses from glass in the standard process but is not necessarily present with flexible substrates, actually improves the absorber layer film quality by increasing its charge carrier density; the allowed processing temperatures may not be sufficient for high film quality, and additional films may become necessary, such as an insulating layer to allow monolithic interconnection on conductive substrates. Despite the challenges, Global Solar, Odersun, and Solarion have commercially produced CIGS PV modules on flexible substrates in 2008, and more companies are eager to do so in 2009.
Soda lime (aka, glass) is the standard material currently used as the CIGS PV substrate. For flexibility, firms are using and developing polymer and metal foil substrates. Metal foils are already in widespread use in a variety of applications. While CIGS PV manufacturers demand specific alloy formulations and dimensions, such requests are common for metal foil providers, and the CIGS PV demand is expected to simply increase the volume of business done by the metal foil suppliers.
Polymer films, especially polyimide, are expected to grow significantly in volume due to demand from CIGS PV and other flexible electronics. Only a small percentage of CIGS PV production currently uses polymer films, but several firms are interested in developing cells on them. With polyimide film substrates expected to grow to nearly 20 percent of CIGS PV volume within the next eight years, nearly four million square meters of polyimide film will be required, a significant chunk of global polyimide film production. NanoMarkets believes polyimide will be the fastest-growing substrate material until flexible glasses and composites are demonstrated and quickly outpace it.
Based on all of the above NanoMarkets believes printing CIGS has a lot of potential because it offers a way to produce CIGS PV cells using high-speed, roll-to-roll processing--a likely path to low-cost manufacturing. But before this can happen in any big way, producers will need to demonstrate that they can achieve high efficiencies using high-speed printing. This they still have to prove.
Published: May 01, 2009 Category:
A variety of small, low-cost batteries have powered electronics for generations and with considerable success. These batteries come in an assortment of chemistries and are used for different applications. For example, primary batteries using carbon zinc are inexpensive power sources for flashlights and toys. Single-use alkaline chemistries last longer, but are a bit more expensive. Uses include calculators, smoke detectors and other consumer goods. Secondary batteries include lead-acid chemistries used in automobiles and lithium-ion batteries used in portable devices.
All of these established battery technologies are widely used for large area/flexible/disposable electronics applications. However, these traditional battery types have major disadvantages in such applications. While very small by the standards of (say) a car battery, they are still quite large and bulky compared to what is needed for the large area/flexible/disposable electronics sector. For example, imagine fitting a smartcard powered by a hearing aid battery into a wallet. There is also a potential health and safety issue in that more conventional batteries often use hazardous chemicals, including lead, mercury, and cadmium. These are not materials that anyone wants in smart packaging that contains food or even pharmaceuticals.
The business proposition of the makers of thin-film and printable batteries is that their products can move beyond such issues. While it is fairly easy to demonstrate that this is the case, the manufacturers of these newer kinds of batteries face some fairly formidable challenges. One of these is that many of the applications at which their new technologies are aimed are themselves new technologies that have generally not done well in the current recession. Most notable among these is RFID. Not so long ago this was seen as a "killer app" for thin-film batteries, but the recession is not likely to be a good time for retail and wholesale firms and others to implement what is, in effect, major new IT systems. In addition, RFID is not coming down in price fast enough to really make significant penetrations at the item level; at least not as fast as hoped and, of course, most RFID tags derive their power inductively and don't need batteries anyway.
With all this in mind, makers of thin-film/printed batteries have turned elsewhere for first revenues. Powered smartcards are seen as one good prospect, because they can potentially provide very high security at a time when ID theft and other forms of abuse cost credit card companies billions of dollars. This seems to NanoMarkets a better bet than RFID at this point in time, but it remains an opportunity that is only just beginning to open up. (Smartcards have been around for many years, but they have been of a type that has relatively low functionality and therefore do not need batteries.)
The bottom line is that the thin-film/printable batteries have a whiff of a technology chasing an application about them. However, a much more serious problem for these batteries is cost. Not that any thin-film battery firm would want to compete on price alone and many of them clearly do not have the resources to do so. However, the facts are that conventional batteries are extremely inexpensive and because of this it is impossible for thin-film/printable batteries to compete with them in many markets at this point in time. This means that the addressable market for these kinds of new battery technologies is quite small; the powered smartcard is a good example of where one might today choose a thin-film/printable battery. But it is hard to think of any other right now.
There have really been three ways to address this price problem, and they are not mutually exclusive. One approach is to essentially route around the pricing problem with the battery company creating its own high-value-added products in which the batteries are used. Cosmetic patches are the main example here. The other approach is to predict and rely on future major economies of scale that will make the price points for thin-film/printable batteries much more comparable with conventional batteries. Every firm in the thin film/printed battery space believes this to some extent, but it is important to realize that this hope is predicated on some kind of "take-off" application.
Finally, there is the strategy that consists in searching for lower cost methods for manufacturing batteries. Usually--but not always--these new production modes involve printing. The argument for printing is mostly the one that is always used for printable electronics, namely that printing machinery is relatively inexpensive and printing processes are well understood. In addition, it is hoped that the printed battery manufacturing can be integrated on the same manufacturing line with the device being powered and on the same substrate, then fixed production costs can be allocated to both battery and device. The thinking here is best exemplified in the concept of printed packaging, where batteries are just another printed layer.
Printed batteries--the main topic of this report--are really a subclass of thin-film batteries and they have many things in common with them. These include small footprint, of course, as well as the difficulty in getting the price point right. Also important--at least potentially--is the fact that these batteries can be formed to fit in almost any shape, depending on the application, and can be manufactured in-line with the final product. As well, these new battery technologies are solid-state and therefore do not pose safety issues. Printed batteries basically combine the advantages associated with thin-film technologies--lightweight, flexible, can be integrated into smartcards, etc--with the low manufacturing cost typically associated with printing.
For the purposes of this report, we define printed batteries as any battery that uses printing technology in its manufacture. For example, many printed batteries today use printing only for the electrodes and then laminate the electrolyte in between these electrodes. These batteries typically involve liquid electrolytes, which so far have not provided an effective electrolyte layer via printing. There are several chemistries currently being used by companies that have developed printable battery technology, but they are usually zinc manganese dioxide or carbon zinc. These are relatively low-cost materials when compared with the various lithium chemistries used in many of the thin-film and conventional batteries. These materials can be formulated into inks, which are then printed via screen printing onto a variety of substrates.
However, in addition to the issues that beset thin-film batteries as a whole, printed batteries have their own challenges. Where they are not entirely printed, the manufacture of these batteries will obviously not get all the cost benefits associated with printing. In addition, there is a major technical issue that must be resolved before printed batteries can realize their potential. This is the issue of the liquid electrolyte. Many in the battery industry believe that only a fully printed battery will be able to compete with conventional batteries. Today's printable batteries rely on a liquid electrolyte, which cannot be printed. (Liquid electrolytes have a viscosity similar to water and therefore need a solid in which to contain them; they are typically absorbed into a "separator" material.)
The RFID market holds out the potential as a very high-volume application for printable batteries and until very recently was seen by the printed battery sector as being where its first large revenues would come from. As we have already mentioned, this looks a little less likely now in recession, but the longer-term prospects are still seen as vital to the future of the printable battery sector by many participants.
While the vast majority of RFID tags on the market today are considered passive, and therefore do not rely on batteries, there is increasing demand for active, as well as semi-passive tags, which do take advantage of batteries. The value proposition being offered by printable batteries for RFID tags is the ability to lower the cost by printing the battery in-line with the rest of the RFID tag, ultimately reducing its cost--a key requirement for the mainstream acceptance of RFID technology. The ultimate goa--still a long way away--by general consensus would be a completely printed device that would replace barcodes. Many of these "barcodes of the future" would be passive, but some would be printed with batteries as part of the complete package.
With advances in materials--better OTFTs and printed silicon especially--RFID tags have the potential to take advantage of low-cost printing technology. The evolution of printed RFID has been steady but slow. PolyIC, the firm most closely associated with this area has moved into the sampling phase, but still seems to be some way from large-scale production. OrganicID seems to be back in the business, after a year or two of under-the-radar development activity. There are also broader development projects underway. One example is the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)-sponsored alliance project called MaDriX that was launched in February 2008 to advance the development of high-performance printable RFID tags. PolyIC is leading the project; other partners include BASF, Evonik Industries, Elantas Beck, and Siemens.
All that being said, we are in a very different economic environment today--recessionary economics, which do not favor emerging technologies. There is much more intrinsic risk in any venture at the present time. This means that the focus is likely to be on the tried and true both in terms of applications that receive funding and materials adopted for bringing these applications to market. As such, we do not expect the RFID market to grow over the next few years at the same pace as we might have expected a few years ago.
Other applications that printed battery producers are targeting include: smartcards, medical devices, sensors, displays, and consumer devices. Many of these applications lend themselves to thin-film batteries in general, and do not necessarily need printed thin-film batteries. The reasons for using a printed battery (as opposed to a non-printed thin-film battery) would generally be to either lower the cost or to enable some design feature that only printing can provide.
Smartcards: A smartcard, also called a chip card or integrated circuit card (ICC), is any pocket-sized card that is embedded with integrated circuits to process information. It can receive input, process the information and deliver output. There are two categories of smartcards: contact and contactless. For the purposes of this report, we will focus on the contactless cards, which unlike the contact cards, rely on on-board batteries. There is increasing demand for contactless smartcards in the financial sector, primarily because they can provide enhanced security in a dangerous world.
The smartcard is already a product that uses printing in its manufacturing and so would be well suited to a printed battery solution. Also, printed batteries would survive in the relatively high temperature (130°C to 150°C) and high pressure (~200 N/cm²) lamination process that is used in the manufacture of smartcards. Conventional batteries, such as coin or button cells, would not survive such temperatures, at least not in a charged state. Given that RFIDs are not taking off as fast as was once hoped, smartcards represent a tremendous opportunity for printable batteries. The number of cards, produced by only one of the major credit card companies would number in the range of 150 million to 300 million cards a year. That is a lot of batteries.
Medical devices: The medical and cosmetic device market has enormous potential for the kinds of batteries that we are discussing in this report. What is usually mentioned in this context is patches, which may already have some printing in their manufacturing process and would be quite amenable to using printed batteries. Another similar area would be "smart bandages," an area that is getting a lot of attention from the U.S. military at the present time. In general, there is probably a wide and growing need for implants and patches that have therapeutic, diagnostic, or cosmetic functionality. Batteries serving this market vary in their requirements, but key factors are often flexibility, long periods between charges, and a small form factor.
The good news about this segment is that it is also fairly cost insensitive; certainly this is the case when compared with item-level RFIDs and smart packaging. However, most medical devices must undergo government regulated trials, which means that there is a period of hiatus before any volume production can be undertaken. One way around this problem is to focus on cosmetic (and hence unregulated) products. This would include patches that enhance the delivery of active ingredients to the skin. The patches are designed for treatment of conditions such as skin damage, aging, wrinkles, hyper-pigmentation and photo-damage. Patches can be customized to any shape and size, conforming to body contours and to varying temperature and humidity. Some of these patches are already using printable batteries because of the cost factor.
Sensors: It may well make good economic sense to print the batteries used with printed sensors, but printed batteries can be also used with non-printed sensors and most printed sensors are not powered by printed--or even thin-film--batteries.
That said, many of the trends in the sensor industry would seem to favor the use of small, thin (and possibly printable) batteries of the kind we are covering here. In particular, there is a need to produce distributed sensing devices on large substrates for atmospheric and national security/military applications and these could certainly benefit from the use of printed batteries. In some cases these distributed sensing systems might be (screen or transfer) printed on a textile substrate to create smart fabrics. In addition, these kinds of applications, suggest that government might have a strong interest in this area both as a customer and a funder of R&D.
There are also broader trends that are worth noting that may well drive the printed and thin-film battery business. Medical diagnosis is moving more to a point-of-care model, using small portable/handheld diagnostic devices or implants. Many of the latest wireless sensor networks and environmental sensing devices are often located in areas where other forms of electricity are not widely available and batteries are the obvious choice of power source. However, in some cases energy harvesting and photovoltaics may prove a better way to power both remote and implantable sensors.
Displays and consumer devices: RFIDs are not the only information revolution that is beginning to take off in the retail sector. Another comes in the form of electronic shelf labels (ESLs, also known as smart shelving). These are small low-cost displays (usually passive matrix LCDs, but potentially e-paper) that provide updatable pricing information. They save the cost of updating pricing labels on a regular basis with the theory also being that by more regular updating of prices in some cases, higher profitability can be achieved. It is also possible to imagine that ESLs would eventually link into larger retail networks that might also include input from RFIDs.
Generally speaking, ESLs have to be powered by batteries and they are usually not displays that use much power so this is not a hard thing to do. The batteries used need not be thin-film or printable. These displays typically use AA batteries, which have lifetimes of six months to five years--a performance stat that thin-film printable batteries would not be able to match. However, there is some potential for printable batteries to find a role in this market, especially if power densities can be improved. Many suppliers of these batteries have mentioned electronic paper ESL displays as a potential market for their technology. Given the physical characteristics of thin-film batteries, however, it is possible to imagine a flexible ESL powered by a battery that would look and behave much like today's plastic shelf label. Using specifically printed batteries the entire label including the power source might be printed.
Given the current economic climate and the state of printable battery technology, it seems likely that printable battery firms will focus on: (1) further developing their battery technology to meet specifications of important applications and increase energy density; (2) improving manufacturing processes used to make the batteries--possibly employing printing for all parts of the battery; and (3) establishing relationships with device manufacturers (customers), especially those that are developing devices made via printing and especially those that could lead to early volume production.
Published: May 01, 2009 Category:
In spite of the worldwide recession, interest remains strong in OLEDs. Mobile phone manufacturers continue to shift from LCD panels in favor of OLED panels for their products. Pent up consumer demand for thin, high-quality OLED televisions and computer monitors make every mention of commercial production plans (or conjecture about production plans) a lead story in display industry news outlets. Recent reports call for large format OLED products from LG, Panasonic, and Samsung as well as a larger OLED TV model from Sony by next year, with some products appearing as early as the end of this year.
Not all the interest is focused on pixilated displays, either. Architectural lighting continues to be the application most likely to drive the next advance in production volume. For example, the National Energy Testing Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy announced funding of 16 solid-state lighting projects, six of which are based on OLED technology. Recipients include QD Vision, Inc., University of Florida, DuPont Displays, Kodak, and Universal Display Corporation (UDC).
As a result, the progress in OLED technology shows no signs of slowing down. These advances have significant implications for the OLED materials markets. One of the most intriguing sets of advances is the use of silver instead of ITO in device anodes.
While research continues on materials that make up the organic stack of OLED devices--the major contributor to materials cost--there's also room for improvement for the more mundane materials such as the electrodes. In particular, there is considerable amount of research into finding an alternative to indium tin oxide (ITO)--a trend that will affect many industries, but one of especial interest for OLED panels. Not only is ITO's pricing and supply subject to wild fluctuations, it is also not an optimal material. ITO does not fare well in flexible applications, and can have planarization issues that can negatively affect the extremely thin layers used in an OLED stack. Spikes in the ITO layer can reach through subsequent layers and create shorts or cause adverse reactions with the emissive layer materials.
One of the most promising approaches is to eliminate the ITO altogether. A number of different researchers have explored using silver as an alternative.
A European consortium including Agfa Materials, Philips Research, and the Holst Centre have demonstrated an OLED lighting tile that does not use ITO. The anode conductor relies primarily on PEDOT:PSS as a conductor, using Agfa's Orgacon G4 PEDOT:PSS. This was a new formulation that was designed specifically for a high level of transparency and high conductivity.
The consortium made a 12 by 12 cm white OLED lighting tile by inkjet printing (instead of the traditional photolithography processes that require several steps) a grid of metal shunting using silver nanoparticle-based ink onto a PEN plastic substrate. PEDOT:PSS was used as the anode and hole injection layer. The research was funded in part by the EU's FP7 Fast2Light project. In addition to eliminating ITO, the process also eliminates the need for lithography and other manufacturing steps, simplifying production and reducing costs. The result is a lighting tile that can be produced using roll-to-roll manufacturing.
Other companies are also exploring approaches that involve silver as an alternative to ITO in OLED devices. Dai Nippon Printing (DNP) announced that it has developed a process that allows roll-to-roll printing of a mesh made of silver nanowires that serve as an electrical grid. It is more conductive than ITO, and more flexible. DNP claims that the material has a low resistance of 0.1 &/cm2 (ohms per square centimeter).
The printing process does not require photolithography to create the pattern, and the wires are so fine that the resulting film is highly transparent. The company notes that the metal grid may also offer the side benefit of blocking some electromagnetic emissions from electronics devices, as adjusting the grid size can tune the layer to block certain radio frequencies. DNP expects samples to be available in May 2009 with full production scheduled for the fall of 2009.
Fujifilm has demonstrated a similar wire mesh coating using silver nanowires on a PET substrate. The sheet resistance can be adjusted by modifying the diameter and pattern of the wires; the company claims that a range of about 0.2 to 3,000 &/cm2. The low end of this range is about 10 to 40 times lower than is typical for an ITO layer.
In a demonstration, the substrate was bent around a 4 mm cylinder without damaging the conductive layer. The demonstrated material was 80-percent transparent, but according to company representatives, the process can be used to create films with transparencies as high as 89 percent. The mesh is produced using a coating process that is designed to work with roll-to-roll processing, and is expected to cost less than ITO films. Production is scheduled for late summer or early fall of 2009.
The current state of the world economy makes immediate success for large format OLED displays such as televisions and computer monitors unlikely in the near term. Mobile device sales are also off dramatically--down 20 percent to almost 50 percent for the first quarter of 2009 according to some sources--but are likely to recover fairly quickly now that inventories have been reduced to more manageable levels.
The prospects for OLED lighting do not appear to be as negatively impacted by the current economic situation as the other applications, in part due to various governments providing funding for research and development, often as part of economic stimulus and energy-savings programs. As a result, there will be both a push in the form of government funding and a pull from consumer demand for more efficient and environmentally friendly lighting. At the time of writing this article, the price of crude oil and other energy forms is low, but there are many indications that those prices will start rising again soon. Higher energy prices will further increase the demand for efficient and long-lived, solid-state lighting solutions, including OLED.
These novel designs and materials that eliminate the need for ITO are still unproven. While they show promise in terms of lowering production costs and possibly material costs as well, we won't know their true value until they start to reach the end user in significant quantities. Only then will we be able to make an accurate assessment of whether or not the promised cost savings can be realized. In addition, while these silver conductor solutions may offer additional benefits such as flexibility and durability, it remains to be seen whether these attributes will translate into features that will increase the end products' appeal to consumers.
One major advantage for these ITO-replacement strategies is that they are not solely dependent on the OLED industry for their success. The same technology can serve the needs of other markets, including touch screens, LCD displays, solar cells, and printable electronics. If they gain a toehold in any of these or other similar industries, they can help leverage the economies of scale in production that will help them compete more effectively in the remaining markets, including OLED.
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