The Return of the Indium Scare?

Published: March 31, 2010    Category: Smart Grids

In our coverage of Indium Tin Oxide (ITO) and thin-film PV including CIGS, we repeatedly see concerns about the cost and supply of indium. Now, these concerns mainly involve grumbling about indium's or ITO's price rather than its availability, especially since the economy collapsed in 2008, and even the cost has been less pressing of an issue since indium fell to the "bargain" price of $300 at that time. But indium prices are now pressing toward $600 a kilogram, and economic growth will certainly push the price up higher.

How high is "higher"? There were fears of $10,000 indium just a few years ago (even though the price topped out just over $1000 in 2005). Those fears are gone, but could they return? And will there be a supply issue as more indium is consumed for ITO and CIGS?

Certainly the fear will return. Because indium supply is slow to develop, there will be some price hikes, and even a return to the $1000 level. But these will be short-term hikes. While some will cry that the sky is falling on indium, producers in China and elsewhere will bring on more capacity to profit from the higher prices while also stabilizing them. And this has already started; as indium prices have crept back up from their lows new indium reserves have also begun being developed; especially in Canada and Australia. Japan's government has even staked out a claim for some of the Australian reserves to support its display industry.

Does NanoMarkets expect $10,000 indium? Not any time soon. $2,000 indium? If so, only briefly. Still, the price volatility we expect will bring about increased interest (and opportunities) in alternatives to ITO, including nanosilver, carbon nanotubes, other TCOs, and conductive polymers. But don't expect ITO to disappear; even as volatility returns the display makers will be very reluctant to abandon a material and process that works. Thus, there will also be plenty of opportunities in indium and ITO, especially in ways of using less (i.e., printing).

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