Executive Summary
E.1 Introduction
E.2 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts: Three Key Segments
E.2.1 General and Architectural Lighting: Where OLED Lighting is Focused Now
E.2.2 Backlighting: Still an Opportunity?
E.2.3 Other Markets for OLED Lighting: Future Opportunities?
E.2.4 Ongoing Challenges for OLED Lighting
E.3 Announced Timetables and Roadmaps of Major OLED Lighting Manufacturers
Chapter One: Introduction: Assumptions, Drivers and Challenges
1.1 Background and Objectives of this Report
1.1.1 Scope of Forecast
1.1.2 Sources of Information
1.2 OLED Lighting: Reasons to Believe
1.3 Ongoing Challenges
1.3.1 Continuing Impact of the Recession
1.4 Announced Timetables and Roadmaps of Major OLED Lighting Manufacturers
1.4.1 Blackbody (France)
1.4.2 General Electric (U.S.)
1.4.3 Kaneka (Japan)
1.4.4 Konica Minolta (Japan)
1.4.5 Ledon (Germany)
1.4.6 LG (South Korea)
1.4.7 Lomox (U.K.)
1.4.8 Lumiotec (Japan)
1.4.9 Modistech (Korea)
1.4.10 Organic Lighting (Japan)
1.4.11 Osram (Germany)
1.4.12 Philips (Netherlands)
1.4.13 Pioneer/Mitsubishi (Japan)
1.4.14 PolyPhotonix (U.K.)
1.4.15 Universal Display (U.S.A.)
1.5 Impact of First OLED Lighting Products on our Forecasts
1.5.1 Revenues in 2010
1.5.2 The Revenue Impact of First OLED Products to be Produced in Volume
1.5.3 OLED Lights as a General Lighting Substitute
1.6 Manufacturing Assumptions
1.6.1 Printing or Classical Deposition?
1.7 Current and Future Pricing of OLED Lighting
1.8 Consumer Acceptance Assumptions and Alternative Scenarios
1.8.1 How Much Confidence Should You Have in these Forecasts?
Chapter Two: OLED General Illumination and Architectural Lighting Forecasts
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Impact of Technical Achievements
2.2.1 Panel Size: Still a Long Way to Go
2.2.2 Efficiency: Getting There
2.2.3 Luminance: A Few Thousand cd/m2
2.2.4 Lifetimes: Much Variation
2.3 Eight-Year Forecast of Worldwide OLED-Based General Illumination Markets
2.3.1 Current Size of General Illumination Market: Addressable Markets for OLEDs
2.3.2 OLED Penetration Patterns for OLED-Based General Illumination
2.3.3 OLED Lighting as an Alternative to Light Bulbs and Tubes: Design Issues
2.3.4 Prices and the Impact of OLED Lifetimes on Consumer Behavior and Financial Discount Rates
2.3.5 OLED Costs and Pricing Assumptions
2.4 Eight-Year Forecast of Worldwide OLED-Based Architectural Lighting Markets
2.4.1 Forecasting Assumptions for Architectural Lighting
Chapter Three: Other Potential OLED Lighting Markets
3.1 Backlighting
3.1.1 Will OLEDs Ever be Good Enough for Backlighting?
3.1.2 Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Backlighting: Alternative Scenarios
3.2 Vehicular Lighting: Trains and Planes and Cars
3.2.1 Eight-Year Forecasts of Vehicular Backlighting
3.3 OLED Lighting in Signage
3.4 Other Applications for OLED Lighting
3.4.1 Healthcare Lighting
3.4.2 Specialized Industrial Lighting
3.4.3 Novelty Applications
Chapter Four: A Summing Up
4.1 Summary of Market Forecasts and Differences from our 2009 Forecasts
4.2 Speculations on the Size of Regional Markets: Europe, North America and Asia
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used in this Report
About the Author
List of Tables:
Exhibit E-1: Summary of OLED Lighting Markets ($ Millions)
Exhibit 1-1: Philips’ OLED Lighting Product Evolution Scenario.
Exhibit 1-2: Early OLED Lighting Products: The Pricing Story So Far.
Exhibit 2-1: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting for General Illumination.
Exhibit 2-2: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLEDs for Architectural Lighting.
Exhibit 3-1: OLED Backlighting Markets ($ Millions) (1)
Exhibit 3-2 Eight-Year Forecasts of OLEDs for Vehicular Lighting.
Exhibit 3-4: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting In Signage.
Exhibit 4-1: Summary of OLED Lighting Markets by Application ($ Millions)
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