This report examines and quantifies the emerging market for thin film/flexible photovoltaic technology. It examines the virtues and disadvantages or rival research programs, such as silicon on metal, CIGS on metal and organic PV and compares the various strategies now being employed to create new PV products for the mobile computer and communications, building materials, outdoor power, emergency power and other sectors. The report provides detailed forecasts of PV shipments broken out by technology type and application. It also discusses how far this new type of photovoltaics can eat into traditional photovoltaics markets.

1.1 Background to Report

Solar panels based on the photovoltaic effect have been in use since the 1970s and have primarily been built from crystalline silicon using technologies very close to those used in the semiconductor industry. The highest efficiencies have been achieved with single crystal silicon cells, although these are hard to make. Polycrystalline silicon cells are less expensive to manufacture but offer lower efficiencies than the single-crystalline approach. Although the entire PV panel market now generates several billion dollars in worldwide revenue, this figure represents a very small proportion of total energy generated. In spite of the fact that the input to PV cells is sunlight and therefore free, PV has proved a very expensive technology to implement, because of high upfront costs and the fact that there is wide hour-to-hour and day-to-day variations in power generated, which means that some kind of battery storage is needed. Finally, the peak energy conversion efficiency of most solar panels is quite low, which means that a lot of panels must be deployed, and that takes up a lot of real estate.

For the past 15 years a new kind of PV has emerged based on thin-film semiconductors deposited on a variety of substrates. The most common of these thin films currently in use is amorphous silicon. The PV cells built from it are invariably less efficient than crystalline PV, but TF PV counters this with a host of advantages including relatively low cost of manufacture, flexibility and savings on materials. The last of these factors has proved especially important, since there has been an ongoing shortage of silicon that has plagued the industry. Thin film silicon PV does a good job in sidestepping this problem, not only by avoiding using large amounts of materials, but, in some cases anyway, by using silene gas as the basis for its thin films, rather than competing with the semiconductor industry for silicon.

Silicon is not the only thin-film material that can be used for PV. Other materials that have been researched or actually deployed include GaAs, CIGS and CdTe and each has its advantages and disadvantages. Although these materials are typically being used in conjunction with relatively complex manufacturing processes with deposition at its core, there is also growing interest in creating lower cost TF PV using printing technology combined with silicon or organic inks.

The PV industry as a whole is very confident of its future. It does not expect oil prices to ever return to the levels of a few years ago, making the relative cost of PV for electricity supply more attractive than it has ever been. The TF part of the industry is especially confident because it expects to penetrate some of the traditional markets for PV, while creating entirely new applications categories, based on TF PV¡¦s cost, weight and flexibility. Integrated building products are particularly attractive to the TF PV maker, because the requirements of this sector fit well with the characteristics of TF PV and the addressable market is large. A potential for TF PV in the mobile and disposable electronics markets has also attracted interest in certain quarters.

1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report

The key objective of this report is to quantify and forecast the business opportunities in TF and organic PV over an eight-year period and to analyze the strategies of the firms that are pursuing„oor planning to pursue„othem. In carrying out this work we examine the main products that are emerging in this area and the consequences of improvements in production modalities and materials science upon various applications and products. We also identify the main players in this arena, and how they are proposing to attack the available opportunities.

One question that is especially important in the context of this report is: Will cost improvements as the result of the latest PV technology enable a rapid penetration of traditional PV markets by this new technology. Whatever one happens to believe about the possibility for solar-powered cell phones, the bulk of the PV market lies„oand will continue to lie„oin standard residential, commercial and industrial applications in which PV has been used for decades. These dominate both in terms of dollars and in terms of watts. An important question then is whether the latest types of PV can make significant inroads into these markets, since this is really the only way that TF PV can start generating billions of dollars in business.

But TF PV is promising more than just better economics for PV. Another question that we analyze in this report is: Will the latest developments in PV enable new applications? The latest PV technology may facilitate a new range of low-end applications powering mobile electronics and similar items. While this type of application has been advocated by a few PV firms, others believe that such a market is largely a fantasy and point out that, even if it did come into being, it would not consume many PV cells compared with traditional power industry, consumer and residential markets. Advocates of these new application directions respond that the cells sold in this market would be very high value and that the mobile phone/computing sector is desperately in need of better power sources.

1.3 Methodology of this Report

The information for this work is derived from a variety of sources, but principally come from primary sources, including an extensive interview program of technologists, business development managers and academics. These interviews were conducted over a period of several months. We also drew on an extensive search of technical literature, relevant company Web sites, trade journals, and various collateral items from trade shows and conferences.

As with all NanoMarkets reports, our assessment of the business prospects for thin film and organic PV is based on an analysis of the underlying needs for the features and capabilities that thin film offers, as well as its inherent limitations. On the demand side, many of the applications and sectors in which TF will be used are ones that NanoMarkets has explored in many of its other reports, so these areas are ones in which we already have a substantial database and familiarity. The forecasting approach taken in this report is explained in more detail in Chapter Four. However, the basic approach taken here is to look at the underlying markets and assess the likely penetration by TF and organic technology in each of them. We also take into consideration„oalthough critically„othe stated plans for expansion of the leading TF PV manufacturers.

1.4 Plan of this Report

In Chapter Two, we examine the key technology enablers and developments for PV and take a look at how they impact the economics of PV. In Chapter Three we analyze the markets for PV technology and how likely they are to be penetrated by TF and organic PV. Finally, in Chapter Four, we provide detailed forecasts of the market for technologies covered in this report.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

E.1 Background to Thin Film PV
E.2 Materials and Production Platforms for TF PV
E.2.1 New Directions for Production: The Role of Printing
E.3 Applications Thin Film and Organic PV: Key Performance Criteria
E.4 Relationship to Other Thin-Film and Organic Electronics Products
E.5 Firms to Watch
E.6 Summary of Forecasts

Chapter One: Introduction

1.1 Background to Report
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Enabling Technologies and Materials

2.1 Introduction
2.2 Silicon Approaches: Innovalight, Iowa Thin Film, Sanyo and Uni-Solar
2.3 CIS/CIGS Approaches: DayStar, Global Solar Energy, MiaSole, Heliovolt, Honda and Shell Solar
2.4 Polymers and Hybrid Organic/Inorganic: Konarka and Nanosolar
2.5 Small Molecules: Global Photonic Energy
2.6 CdTe: First Solar
2.7 “Third Generation,” Nano-Enabled Photovoltaics and GaAs

Chapter Three: Applications and Markets

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Large Projects
3.3 Integrated Building Products
3.4 Consumer Electronics
3.5 Military and Emergency Applications
3.6 Other Applications: The Promise of Disposable Electronics

Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts

4.1 Eight-Year Forecasts of Thin Film Electronics Technology
4.2 A Justification for Forecasting and Sources of Error
4.3 Forecasts

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report

About the Author

List of Exhibits

Exhibit E-1: Claimed Advantages of Thin Film Approaches
Exhibit E-2: Selected Firms in the Thin-Film PV Market
Table E-3: Summary of Organic/PV Markets ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-1: TF Photovoltaic Markets: By Production Technology ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-2: TF Photovoltaic Markets: By Materials ($ Millions)