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REPORT # Nano-525 PUBLISHED March 16, 2012
NanoMarkets OLED Lighting Market Forecast – Q2 2012
  • OLEDs

    In the past year OLED lighting markets and production infrastructure have evolved.  For example, office lighting has become a key market target for OLED lighting, while other applications no longer command the interest they once did.  At the same time, while some likely future mass producers of OLED lighting seem to be committing more resources, others seem to be failing in their efforts.

    With all this in mind, this report provides NanoMarkets’ latest market forecasts for OLED lighting.  Our company has been actively tracking the OLED lighting market for more than five years and this report represents a more detailed forecast than any we have ever produced before. 

    In this report, we consider the revenue potential for the OLED lighting applications that currently interest the OLED market the most.  We think these have changed since last year and now comprise luxury consumer lighting, decorative lighting for large buildings and showrooms, office lighting, residential lighting and automotive lighting.  Another change in this year’s report is that we have provided a much more detailed analysis of pricing trends in OLED lighting than ever before In particular, in addition to looking at pricing expectations of leading manufacturers, we have also examined the likely roadmaps for pricing by unit, luminance and square meter and how these three measures are likely to correspond.

    Obviously, no one can be completely sure of how the developments in the OLED lighting market will ultimately pan out and with that in mind we consider other prominent forecasts for this market including a worse-case scenario in which OLED lighting never succeeds in growing beyond the luxury lighting sector, along with some ultra-optimistic scenarios that have emerged from apparently respectable sources.

    The forecasts in this report are in value and volume (square meter and unit) terms and are broken out by applications.  We also consider how the OLED lighting market is likely to be shared among various major countries and regions as it evolves.  Finally, we examine how our forecasts tie in with the emergence of OLED lighting manufacturing capacity, around the world.

    Executive Summary
    E.1 Introduction:  Changes from Our May 2011 Forecast
    E.1.1 Changes in Applications Covered:  More Granular Forecasts
    E.1.2 A More Mindful Market:  Fewer Press Releases, More Strategic Thought
    E.1.3 Why We Have Brought Our Forecasts Down:  It’s the Economy, Stupid  (and GE too)
    E.2 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting Markets
    E.2.1 Supply Constraints on OLED Forecasts
    E.2.2 Summary of NanoMarkets’ Projections of OLED Lighting Revenues
    E.2.3 Alternative Scenarios for OLED Lighting
    E.2.4 How Much Confidence Should You Have in these Forecasts?
    Chapter One:  Introduction: Assumptions, Drivers and Challenges
    1.1 Why Do We Need Another Forecast for OLED Lighting?
    1.1.1 OLED Lighting in a Low-Growth World
    1.1.2 The OLED Lighting Industry is in Deep Thought Mode
    1.1.3 A Reevaluation of All OLED Lighting Applications
    1.2 Objectives of this Report
    1.3 Methodology and Information Sources
    1.4 Plan of this Report
    Chapter Two:  Demand Side Analysis
    2.1 Penetration Patterns for OLED Lighting
    2.2 Addressable Markets for OLEDs
    2.3 Design Issues:  OLED Lighting as an Alternative to Light Bulbs and Tubes
    2.4 Impact of Technical Achievements on Market Expectations for OLED Lighting
    2.4.1 Efficiency
    2.4.2 Panel Size
    2.4.3 Intensity
    2.4.4 Lifetimes
    2.5 Pricing Matters
    2.5.1 Prices and the Impact of OLED Lifetimes on Consumer Behavior and  Financial Discount Rates
    2.5.2 Prices and Cost Patterns for OLED Lighting
    2.5.3 Price per Unit
    2.5.4 Cost per Kilolumen
    2.5.5 Cost per Square Meter
    2.6 Design Issues:  OLED Lighting as an Alternative to Light Bulbs and Tubes
    Chapter Three:  Supply Side Analysis:  Is there Capacity Enough to Meet Demand?
    3.1 Introduction:  OLED Lighting Makers’ Expectations
    3.2 Will GE Still be a Force to be Reckoned With in OLED Lighting Manufacture?
    3.3 Expected OLED Lighting Manufacturing Growth in Europe
    3.4 Japan as an OLED Lighting Manufacturing Power
    3.5 China, Taiwan and OLED Lighting Manufacturing
    3.6 OLED Lighting Capacity in Korea
    3.7 Moser Baer
    Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting Markets
    4.1 Details of Forecasting Methodology
    4.2 Designer Kits and Other OLED Lighting Purchases by Designers and Educational Establishments
    4.3 Luxury Consumer Lighting
    4.4 Decorative Lighting for Prestige Buildings, Trade Shows and Showrooms
    4.5 Other Residential Lighting
    4.6 Office Lighting and Other Commercial/Industrial Lighting
    4.6.1 A Note on OLED Architectural Lighting
    4.6.2 Smart Windows
    4.7 Automotive and Other Transportation Lighting Using OLEDs
    4.7.1 Addressable Markets
    4.7.2 Eight-Year Forecasts
    4.8 Speculations on Other Possible Applications for OLED Lighting
    4.8.1 Backlights
    4.8.2 Personal Lighting Products
    4.8.3 Signage
    4.8.4 Specialized Industrial Lighting
    4.8.5 Novelty Applications
    4.9 Summary of Market Forecasts in this Chapter
    4.10 Speculations on the Size of Regional Markets:  Europe, North America and Asia
    Abbreviations and Acronyms Used In this Report
    About the Author
    List of Exhibits
    Exhibit E-1: Worldwide OLED Lighting Forecast Markets 
    Exhibit 4-1: Value of OLED Design Kits and Individual OLEDs Bought For Internal Use by Designers and Educational Institutions 
    Exhibit 4-2: Eight-Year Forecast of Luxury Luminaires Using OLEDs 
    Exhibit 4-3: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting Sold For Showrooms, Trade Shows and Prestige Signage 
    Exhibit 4-4: Eight-Year Forecast of Other Residential Lighting Markets 
    Exhibit 4-5: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting Sold For Commercial, Industrial and Government Buildings and Prestige Buildings 
    Exhibit 4-6: Eight-Year Forecast of OLED Lighting Sold For Vehicles 
    Exhibit 4-7: Worldwide OLED Lighting Forecast Markets 


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