The success patterns in the TC space have changed enough over the past year for NanoMarkets to expect that they will begin to change again before this market matures.  One open question is how far conductive polymers can go in this space.  They have done quite well so far; their advocates being well aware of their limitations and successfully targeting low-end applications where the cost of polymers is a genuine competitive advantage.

Something similar can also be said about non-ITO TCOs.  Because of the ability to be a drop in replacement for ITO in the LCD sector, it has been suggested that these may make a success ITO replacement.  But attempts to use zinc oxide variants instead of ITO a few years ago have been largely unsuccessful, so we are dubious about what the future hold in this regard.

Quantum dots (QDs) are likely to be the next big thing that is going to shape the modern display and lighting industries. Because of their ability to emit pure colors and offer superior benefits, such as improved energy-efficiency and extended lifetimes, QDs have slowly begun to penetrate the commercial display market as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) seek to differentiate their products and entice consumers with enhanced visual experiences in a cost-effective manner.

Although the QD community is making continuous efforts to expand the scope of the application of these nanoparticles outside of these two industries, NanoMarkets believes that QDs are most likely to find greater acceptance in the display and lighting markets in the coming years.

NanoMarkets sees opportunities in the LED driver space as the result of the rise of smart lighting for a number of reasons.  First this an area where LED driver makers can make a big and obvious impact on the market through products that are semi-proprietary and therefore hard to copy.  It is the driver design that determines the price/performance of an LED lighting system, so it is especially important in the context of smart lighting, which is distinguished form other kinds of LED lighting systems by performance. We also think that LED driver makers will be attracted to the smart lighting space (or at least to the lighting space) as the BLU market begins to run out of steam.

For the immediate future, smart lighting sensors will be an opportunity in that the growth of smart lighting will mean that demand for some fairly conventional sensors will increase.  However, NanoMarkets believes that increasingly there will be new opportunities for the sensor industry in smart lighting that involves new kinds of devices with higher-value added/margins.  Such opportunities should also be seen as a broader opportunity for sensor makers within the IoT as a whole.

While smart lighting systems can trace their conceptual history back decades, today's systems are obviously a new breed; bringing together the latest sensing, control, communications and illumination technology.  If smart lighting systems move toward being designed for influencing mood, health, human performance and even data communications, tomorrow's smart lighting systems will bear little resemblance to the lighting control and management systems of the past and the present.

As long as smart lighting systems don't display much change or originality in functionality, NanoMarkets believes that firms in this sector can rely on (1) branding strategies, (2) strong distribution channels to compete.  Indeed, NanoMarkets believes that there are quite a few smart lighting firms that feel that such non-technical marketing strategies can carry the smart lighting business forward for an indefinite period of time.

In recent NanoMarkets’ reports on the OLED industry, we suggested that the OLED lighting industry, which has struggled to get off the ground recently, is in need of an “industry champion.” The thinking is that emerging technologies often need such a champion—a firm with both the will and the resources to invest heavily in product and business development and with a long-enough view and deep enough pockets to get into a business that might not be profitable for many years.

On the display side, Samsung clearly took on the role of industry champion, and the firm is today reaping the benefits. As we noted in the last chapter, Samsung’s market position in OLED displays today is dominant, and while increased competition will surely be the trend in the next couple of years, Samsung’s position is likely to remain secure for the foreseeable future.